Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[TheSaint250]

  Has President Van der Bellen had much to say about the campaign and the possibility (likelihood?) that he may soon have to swear in members of the FPO into a new cabinet?

He has talked about preferring to have a pro-EU government in place.

[TheSaint250]

House of Cards - Austrian style:

The "spy" or whistleblower within the SPÖ, who leaked Silberstein's dirty campaigning methods against Kurz to the ÖVP and media, has been named as "Anna J." - a translator for Silberstein (because he only talked English and Hebrew and no German).

The "Anna J." woman is now speculated to have been planted by the ÖVP as a spy within the SPÖ campaign to leak data and set the party up for an "explosion" that will destroy them before the election (which also happened, sort-of).



In today's Krone, a friend of "Anna J." said she's now afraid for her security and is in need of psychological help because of everything. An adviser to Kern apparently bombarded her with Whatsapp messages, saying that he'd offer her twice the amount of the ÖVP if she shuts up ...

http://www.krone.at/592447

http://derstandard.at/2000065531147/Fussi-bot-Silberstein-Uebersetzerin-Geld-fuer-seine-Mails

Geez

Austrian politics is riveting

[TheSaint250]

I feel a lot more comfortable with my vote for Kern after his good debate performance today.

Maye he can close the gap in the next days, but I remain very sceptical.

Who won, and how did Kurz and Strache do?

[TheSaint250]

I feel a lot more comfortable with my vote for Kern after his good debate performance today.

Maye he can close the gap in the next days, but I remain very sceptical.

Who won, and how did Kurz and Strache do?

Impossible to say because the ORF duels have no polls of debate watchers like Puls 4 debates.

I think all 3 main candidates are really good debaters and made their positions clear to voters.

It will be really hard to predict this election, everything seems possible on Sunday ...

Ah ok.

From what past elections have shown, whoever has the momentum usually does a little better than the polls show, and those who are going down usually do worse (Germany and the Netherlands). If this holds, ÖVP might just do a tiny bit worse, FPÖ will move into 25% or above, and SPÖ will continue to collapse.

[TheSaint250]

So ÖVP is more to the right than FPÖ?

[TheSaint250]

So ÖVP is more to the right than FPÖ?

It’s normal for Nationalist conservative parties to be more economically left wing then the standard Conservative party. You see the same thing with trump, the National front and the AFD.

Ah ok then that makes sense. I guess for some reason I didn’t think of the FPÖ to be economically left wing.

[TheSaint250]

I predict that the FPÖ will do slightly better than pollin due to having momentum, ÖVP will slightly go down as a result, SPÖ will go down as well, and NEOS will do somewhat better than 2013, as is a common pattern (liberals and right-wing populists simultaneously do better or do worse)

[TheSaint250]

How accurate is this? This seems a little different from the polling.

[TheSaint250]

These exit polls are all over the place.

[TheSaint250]

Greens below the threshold in updated hochregnung!

Where is this?

[TheSaint250]

Thanks!

Is this an exit poll or a projection?

All of these exit polls and results are all over the place...

[TheSaint250]

Thanks!

Is this an exit poll or a projection?

All of these exit polls and results are all over the place...

There are no exit polls here. It is a projection based on already counted precincts. The more precincts are counted, the better the projection will get and the margin of error will go down.

A final result without postal ballots can be expected in 2 hours.

Ok thank you!

[TheSaint250]

Of 583k Green voters in 2013, 147k voted for the Greens again. 161k went to SPÖ, 84k to the ÖVP (!!), 67k to Pilz and 57k to NEOS.

Judgement Day.

PS: according to the ORFs Special 10pm news report, the ÖVP-FPÖ coalition will come quickly.

Any news about adding NEOS?

[TheSaint250]

Nothing bad ever happens when you put a xenophobic Austrian in charge, right?

Wow

[TheSaint250]

Is there any chance that NEOS will enter the coalition?

[TheSaint250]

Is there any chance that NEOS will enter the coalition?

No, but they could vote with an ÖVP/FPÖ government for a constitutional deficit and debt brake, which all 3 parties strongly want.

Ah ok