The three most important states in a close 2020 election will be: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida.
Wisconsin is probably the safest Republican state between WI, MI, and PA. Plus since Florida has almost 3 times as many electoral votes (and was very close as well). Given all that, I chose MI, PA, and FL as the most important states.
Democrats can win without WI (2016 + MI, PA, and FL) but I don't see how Trump or Pence can win without WI (since losing Wisconsin likely means that they've lost MI and PA).
The GOP has a lot going for them in Wisconsin if 2020 is close:
1. It strongly favored a more Cruz style candidate to Trump in the primaries (This helps if Pence is the nominee).
2. It came within a single percentage point of victory for Bush II in both 2000 and 2004.
3. Scott Walker and the Tea Party wave played very strongly here and have been rewarded electorally for their efforts.
4. Trump received less total raw votes than Romney did in the state so Pence and even Trump defintely have room to grow with Romney voters that Trump left on the table last year. The Midwest had large concentrations of Obama-Trump voters so there's definitely Romney voters in the state who didn't vote or voted Third Party/Clinton/Write in/etc.
Ok I understand where you're coming from.
But by no means should a Democrat abandon it (I know that's not what you're saying. Just wanted to state that). I would still include it on the list based on how it was one of the states that elected within less than 1% of the state's vote. Also, Romney and Cruz-primary voters might still not turn out for the eventual nominee (most likely Trump or Pence) based on how the last four years will have been.
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