France 2012: the official thread

[big bad fab]

In Guadeloupe-Martinique-Guyane, Hollande seems to win high but he was already high.
What is more important is taht the other candidates transfer big towards him.
But it's OVERSEAS, guys.... Be careful.

[big bad fab]

Numbers are coming on the PS site.

http://resultats.lesprimairescitoyennes.fr/

But ?!? Where are the overseas territories in the rolling menu ?!?
Sh****

EDIT: just added... it begins chaotically !

[big bad fab]

FH 51.22 on 19 000...

[big bad fab]

Uh, the difference between 'estimates' and 'validated' are really crazy.

Validated are probably overseas. And, from what we've seen last Sunday, it seems that a part of 'validated' are erased from the 'estimates'...
But I don't believe we can add them...

[big bad fab]

i-Télé says FH 77 in Guadeloupe, 72 in Martinique, 64 in Guyane.
That would mean that he is between +15 and +24, while she is only between +5 and +9.

FH 53.4 on 23 700

EDIT: take an eye on Loiret, Marne and Indre-et-Loire, closest results to national results in the first round. But they may be too rural...

[big bad fab]

126 000
FH 56.79

It seems too high for me my poor predictions... poor UMP...

[big bad fab]

No numbers from Paris, but already big numbers from Nord and Pas-de-Calais, so I guess that indeed

Hollande is the survivor !

[big bad fab]

483 000

56.48

Where is the "comeback girl" ?

[big bad fab]

Seine-Maritime: already 1 polling station in 4 are in and she is only at 51.

[big bad fab]

757 000
56.61

She's humiliated for the moment. Fine ! But a UMPer can't rejoice long

[big bad fab]

Considering all of the other candidates basically endorsed Francois, this shouldn't really be a surprise...

That doesn't work like that, really.

Either the "vote utile" (useful vote) has been big, or Hollande was really victim of demobilization in the first round.

[big bad fab]

1 416 000
56.53

[big bad fab]

1 634 000
56.45

[big bad fab]

2 109 000
56.35

[big bad fab]

Boring evening (I mean results: no suspense at all).

I failed big with my 51.5-48.5.
Polls too: they were at 52 or 53.

Hollande is really a fine tactician. He has proved it tonight too.
His speech at Solferino was really mitterrandian.
Messier inside his HQ.

Why this result ?
Aubry was excessive ? The leftists have a sole idea: beat Sarkozy ? Hollande voters were missing in the 1st round and they just came back ? Polls were right from the beginning ?

[big bad fab]

Preliminary map

Somme has just switched, for a fistful of votes, to Aubry.

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #24 - 17 October 2011      
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week: it may change after the autumn.            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...       

      

Hollande   30,53
Sarkozy   22,25
Le Pen   16,27
Mélenchon   6,90
Joly   5,58
Bayrou   6,63
centre-right candidate   6,30
Villepin   3,43
Dupont-Aignan   0,41
Boutin   0,37
Nihous   0,04
Arthaud   0,90
Poutou   0,32
Chevènement   0,04
   
Hollande   58,33
Sarkozy   41,67

No new poll this week, so Sarkozy is just keeping heading down and Mélenchon heading up.

Hopefully, we'll soon have some polls, with 2 big changes:
- Borloo is out
- Hollande is the survivor.

Expect a big boost for Hollande, probably towards 35%.
It'll be interesting to see if Sarkozy is at least able to grasp 2 points from Borloo.
Bayrou should be slightly up. Morin should be tested.
Pay close attention to Joly and Mélenchon, in order to see if Aubry's defeat means a boost for them (I doubt it, though Mélenchon may be up again, as he is clearly on the rise).

[big bad fab]

The strength of Hollande with 6 groups of 16 departments.

Well, it's mostly the same map as in the first round.
Montebourg's, Royal's and Baylet's appeals have had effect only in their own local strongholds: Burgundy, Poitou-Charentes, Tarn-et-Garonne and few other departments with leftist radical tradition.

It gives us a clue on vote transfers from 1st to 2nd round (and of my big failure in predicting the 2nd round ): vote transfers were pretty homogeneous and didn't have, overall, an effect on the hierarchy of the 2 final candidates.

After all, maybe polls weren't bad at all: 56,5%, that's what they have predicted before round 1, including OpinionWay, which was then very accurate....

Maybe the 1st round results were the real.... outlier !
Maybe many "natural" Hollande voters didn't vote because they thought he would be ahead anyway. And maybe some Hollande voters had some "fun" in 1st round, exactly like in a presidential election, when Besancenot, Laguiller, Villiers,... have bigger results than anticipated.

[big bad fab]

Fab, can you give us a last tracker for Aubry, so that we know exactly where she stood when she lost ?

I'm sorry, but no: already erased her datas
Basically, it's the same thing as the week before...
Sorry again.


As for Hash's questions, well,
Eure is under Seine-Maritime influence and Parisian influence, like Yonne.

Hautes-Alpes has been good for Greens in the past years.
And maybe there is a personality factor: rough people in Queyras and Briançonnais who like a rough woman...
It may be the same in some parts of Somme, Meurthe-et-Moselle. But, sure, it doesn't work in Lozère, Doubs, Vosges or Ardennes

Ardèche has Lyon's influence, sure, plus a Green minorty vote along the Rhône, plus Dussopt, the young PS deputy who has been very active in her campaign (he is a "fan" of the northern lady, you know ? ).
Haute-Loire is maybe a mix of Ard-èche and Hautes-Alpes explanations.

Landes is of course the land of Emmanuelli (Hamon did big there in 2008, and in Pyrénées-Atlantiques too).

Drôme has a big Green effect (Michèle Rivasi, chemical industry, nuclear plants) and Lyon's influence too, plus an old Mermazian tradition (more than Isère, which had Dubedout and has now Destot or Vallini), which means quite a leftist and orthodox local PS.

Haute-Marne had a special result in 2008: the ecologist wing of the PS was strong only here. I don't know what this "pôle écologique" is made of now, but that can be an explanation.

Sometimes, I think there are also some regional votings: I mean, Burgundy was loyal to Montebourg even towards Hollande.
Maybe Eure, Ardèche, Drôme, only vote like the rest of their region.
There are many counter-examples of course, but which we can explain: Ille-et-Vilaine is not really Britaany , Aisne has the very special Thiérache in it, Hautes-Alpes isn't entirely in "Provence"...

And, eventually, remember, there may be only 0.1% between the lowest department of a colour and the highest of the other colour .

[big bad fab]

Eh, if I've done what you've already said, we would have run out of polls...
Remember, French pollsters are lazy and French medias are very suspectful towards polls (hence, order less and hence weaken polls' reliability ). I'll wait a bit as I'm not so sure we'll have many polls until... Xmas.

In CSA (I'll publish it tomorrow), Hollande is already at 35%. Morin and Lepage are in but Borloo dissipated with giving only 1 or 2 points to Sarkozy...
Honestly, how can he win ?

[big bad fab]

I'm lazy, guys.
If you want details on CSA and BVA recent polls, go to my blog (link in my signature). In French but results are quite clear

Of course, I'll keep publishing my tracker here, as usual.
Hollande will bounce big !

[big bad fab]

If anybody thinks Hollande or anybody can win nearly 40% in the first round, I'd like to sell them my beachfront property in Saskatchewan.

Yeah, he will end up in the very low 30s at best (and that will still be a great score).

Indeed, there is the foreseeable effect of the primary, the fact that these are the first polls since Borloo dropped out and the fact that BVA didn't include any other rightist or centre-rightist candidate than Sarkozy (and didn't even add Lepage).

We are entering a weird period: Hollande will try to be more discrete (clever, I think), while Sarkozy will be burned out by the crisis
Hollande may well still be over 32 in January.
Of course, in April, he'd be glad to have 28: Bayrou, Mélenchon, maybe some small candidate will have better numbers. And, of course, there is Panzergirl, again the big question mark.

[big bad fab]

I'm lazy, guys.
If you want details on CSA and BVA recent polls, go to my blog (link in my signature). In French but results are quite clear

Of course, I'll keep publishing my tracker here, as usual.
Hollande will bounce big !

And, today, an IFOP poll, close to CSA numbers, with a 60-40 for the second round.
To be published later today.

[big bad fab]

Does the new prostitution scandal which is perhaps related to DSK will hurt PS?

Nah. If the DSK affair made Hollande gain 5 points, I don't see how this little stuff could hurt him. I've the impression people don't even associate him with the PS anymore (except when he talks about his "sercret" deals with Aubry ).

True. That is a good thing than he was stopped in May, then. All that coming out after he would have won the primary would have been dreadful...

Yeah, definitely. Don't make me even think to such a catastrophe..

And there are also some new stuff about the young Marie-Victorine, daughter of a black PS rank-and-file, who had sexual relations with DSK when he was minister or just before, and who attempted to kill herself...

But, don't worry, DSK is DSK and the PS is the PS. The only one who will fall will probably be Pupponi, the mayor of Sarcelles.
Otherwise, even if many people knew some details, I don't think it will hurt them.
And, meanwhile, you'll have new developments on Karachi affair, so even though Hollande lose 1 or 2 points, Sarkozy will lose 6 or 7 in the meantime...

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #25 - 24 October 2011      
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week: it may change after the autumn.            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...       

      

Hollande   35,10
Sarkozy   23,59
Le Pen   16,38
Bayrou   7,46
Mélenchon   6,33
Joly   4,50
Villepin   2,03
Morin   2,25
Lepage   0,19
Dupont-Aignan   0,37
Boutin   0,46
Nihous   0,10
Arthaud   0,96
Poutou   0,28
Chevènement   0,00
   
Hollande   61,41
Sarkozy   38,59

4 new polls are in... a huge boost for Hollande. Morin still has some points from Borloo, but not for long. Bayrou is slowly rising.