European Elections 2009 (France)

[big bad fab]

Can we make anything of this, or are polls for European elections untrustworthy?

The problem is that we are not sure, at this point, which parties will have lists and which ones will have lists everywhere.

The new Parti de Gauche (Mélenchon) may have common lists with the PCF.
The Nouveau Centre isn't sure to make common lists with the UMP (polls like this will push it to do so...).
The old CNI tries to have lists everywhere (as for now, it will have in the West and in Ile-de-France).
Will there be other far left lists, apart from LO and NPA ? The Parti des Travailleurs, maybe ?

Best firms at the last presidential and legislative elections were IPSOS, IFOP and BVA. SOFRES wasn't vey good. CSA is awful, as often. LH2 is rather bad.

[big bad fab]

Will there be other far left lists, apart from LO and NPA ? The Parti des Travailleurs, maybe ?

The LO and LCR actually ran together in 2004. I don't think they'll do so again this year. The PT (now called the POI, but still a joke party) is irrelevant.

Yeah, of course, sorry.
I'm always late with the far-left: OCI, PCI, MPPT, PT, now POI. In France, when we talk about those small political parties, we say they can gather their congress "dans une cabine téléphonique".

[big bad fab]

When is the deadline for submitting lists?

We don't know yet.

In 2004, the deadline was on May 28th, for an election on June, 13th.

[big bad fab]

Will there be other far left lists, apart from LO and NPA ? The Parti des Travailleurs, maybe ?

The LO and LCR actually ran together in 2004. I don't think they'll do so again this year. The PT (now called the POI, but still a joke party) is irrelevant.

And, wait, Jean-Claude Gayssot, former PCF minister during Jospin's tenure in Prime ministership, may also create an organization outside the PCF.

Hue is still member of the PCF.

[big bad fab]

And now Clémentine Autain wants to gather all the "other left" in a "fédération pour une alternative sociale et écologique".
But she criticizes Mélenchon, Besancenot et Buffet...

Autain is a former Paris vice-mayor (in charge of youth affairs). She is both "féministe enragée", green and communist but was never a member of the Greens or of the PCF. She was "apparentée" PCF during some time.

What a mess.
Even deeply divided, the PS isn't already contested in its left leadership. But the PS may slip down the same road as the SPD.

[big bad fab]

Atleast Autain isn't under the impression the PCF actually likes her anymore. The PCF hates her. Like every sane person should, since she's weird.

Sure !

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I don't know what's the deal with the Trots, but I don't think they'll be running together this time. Besancenot seems opposed to any alliance with anybody.

I thought the whole point of fouding the NPA was to try to federate the far left around him.

Founding the NPA was meant to crush every other far-left party and to assess if the party can be as successful as Besancenot alone.

For the moment, it is even uncertain whether the PCF will agree to make a common list with the PG. So, don't even talk about LO-LCR(NPA)...

[big bad fab]

Benoît Hamon said that Harlem Désir will likely lead the PS list in Ile-de-France (link). Désir led it in 2004, but Hamon challenged him following the PS elections last fall.

The big problem inside the PS now is: "where do we put Vincent Peillon ?"

Peillon is an incumbent MEP from Nord-Ouest constituency (i.e. Nord-Pas-de-Calais, Haut-Normandie, Basse-Normandie and his own Picardie), but there is also the old Fabiusian (and former far-leftist) Henri Weber, also an incumbent MEP and Gilles Pargneaux, head of the big PS federation of Nord (le département).

Peillon is nr 2 in the Royalist wing (but many think he wants to be nr 1 of a Peillonist wing...) and to drop him in the South-East would disturb mnay Royalist politicians already candidates there.

Inside the UMP, Sarkozy decides alone and you have some irrational choices: Barnier in Ile-de-France rather than in the South East; Lamassoure and Bourlanges, good incumbent MEPs, without any aussrance of reelection; Baudis nr 1 in South-West, based just on one single poll where he's better known by 3 points compared to Lamassoure...

Considering European elections in France are traditionally those of anger, laziness, electoral gleaning here and there, 26% for the UMP would be quite a small victory....
I'm myself not sure at all of my vote for the UMP (I regret NC autonomous lists: they would have made 1,5%, but it would have been easy to vote for European ideas, in the center-right).

Many moderate UMP electors will vote for MoDem, believing they are voting for the old UDF, whereas the MoDem is now a bunch of Bayrou's sect members, of former Greens and various outsiders. Even Quitterie Delmas, a young MoDem regional leader-in-waiting in Paris, has recently put an end to her policital career because of authoritarian and "old" manners inside the MoDem from Bayrou and, especially, Marielle de Sarnez.
And many UMP electors from the right will not vote, because of messy, unfinished, less and less courageous reforms.

Most probably, this election will be an election for nothing, because the success of the NPA is anticipated, the PS will be said not to have lost considering its recent internal fightings, the UMP will be ahead, the possible good score of the Greens is anticipated, the MoDem is unable to duplicate his (likely) good European results on the national political scene.
The only losers will be the FN and the PCF.

[big bad fab]

Inside the UMP, Sarkozy decides alone and you have some irrational choices: Barnier in Ile-de-France rather than in the South East; Lamassoure and Bourlanges, good incumbent MEPs, without any aussrance of reelection; Baudis nr 1 in South-West, based just on one single poll where he's better known by 3 points compared to Lamassoure...

Considering European elections in France are traditionally those of anger, laziness, electoral gleaning here and there, 26% for the UMP would be quite a small victory....
I'm myself not sure at all of my vote for the UMP (I regret NC autonomous lists: they would have made 1,5%, but it would have been easy to vote for European ideas, in the center-right).

The UMP loves irrational choices or downright awful choices.

I hope you don't Libertas or FN

Don't worry: I'm not a stupid racist, I'm not a French Algeria nostalgic and I don't want to help an egomaniac oldie put his unbearable and silly daughter at the head of his falling "political shop"....

As for Libertas, I'm definitely pro-European, despite the European Parliament, despite the lack of "spiritual and religious roots".
Villiers is ridiculous and egomaniac (a bit less than Bayrou, Royal, Sarkozy and Le Pen, but really a tiny bit less...) and makes the Catholic right appear ridiculous... That's a pity.

Most probably, this election will be an election for nothing, because the success of the NPA is anticipated, the PS will be said not to have lost considering its recent internal fightings, the UMP will be ahead, the possible good score of the Greens is anticipated, the MoDem is unable to duplicate his (likely) good European results on the national political scene.
The only losers will be the FN and the PCF.

It will be interesting to see how de Villiers ends up. He's right on the 5% boundary nationally.

If he's above the 5% threshold, it will be only thanks to CPNT. Villiers is definitely out of fashion, even in the right. DLR and Dupont-Aignan may be a surprise if they find a way to be aired on the main networks.

But don't think I support DLR: back in 1990, Dupont-Aignan was one of my law teachers in Sciences-Po. He never smiled, except when he was criticizing something or someone. He was "less than average" and some students were better than him in public law....!!

[big bad fab]

You know the old word: "Et le Couesnon, dans sa folie, mit le Mont en Normandie..."

I also had Valérie Pécresse once a time as teacher (she was Valérie Roux at the time, and 17 years younger, so REALLY gorgeous...). Very serious, but, as we say in French, "très scolaire", very unimaginative if you prefer.
So, I dropped her lesson and chose another one, by another member of the Conseil d'Etat, but one who understood deeply what is French public law.

Many boys attended her lesson (and so did I) only for the reason mentionned above: she was REALLY gorgeous.

Now, I think it's a pity Sarkozy is breaking some UMP's young abled politicians (Pécresse, Jégo, Dallier, even Yade who isn't as artificial as she is described - she's not Dati, if you prefer), as there aren't many (only Copé, Wauquiez; Chatel isn't very smart; Courtial is stupid; etc...).
Pécresse is a good politician and would have been a good minister, hadn't Sarkozy stolen every power a French minister normally has...

And did I say that she is REALLY gorgeous ?

[big bad fab]

In other news, the NPA has already had it's first divisions (loltrotslol) over the issue of co-operating with the PCF-PG. Christian Picquet has launched Gauche Unitaire. Picquet's motion obtained 16% at the NPA's founding congress last month).

He has always been a supporter of an alliance with other left parties, especially the PCF, and with traditional trade unions, like the CGT.
He is more of the far wing of the traditional left, than a modern "gauchiste", if you see what I mean....

Already inside the LCR, he was an opponent to the Krivine-Besancenot majority.

[big bad fab]

Sad news for turnout from Ipsos. In 2004, 3 months from the vote, 69% said they would vote. Today, only 49% say they will vote. 58% of the twits who voted for the drug addict in 2007 will vote, and only 43% of those who voted for bling-bling will vote.

Anyways, that same Ipsos poll (voters certain to vote)

UMP 27%
PS 24%
MoDem 10%
Greens 9%
NPA 9%
PCF-PG 6%
Libertas (MPF-CPNT) 6%
FN 5.5%
LO 2%
DLR 1%
FNd 0.5% (only polled in NW and SW)

Nothing really new... Like in the old days of 1982-1985 or 1990-1993 for the PS and of 2003-2006 for the right, the government support is very low.

The only surprises are the good numbers of PG-PCF and of MPF-CPNT.
Not good in relation to the past (European elections of 1999 for Pasqua-Villiers or elections priori to 1988 for the PCF), but good if you remember Villiers is a complete outsider now and if you remember that the NPA and Cohn-Bendit should have been the winners of the "protest left".

European elections and the fact that many voters don't know really for whom to vote explain that CPNT (and not Villiers) is able to do more than 5%.

Division in the far left is a real heavy trend in France....
17% for the far left (NPA+LO+PG+PCF), it's very high, but, as no one is above 10%, it won't be very much noticed, come election day.

Poor country...

[big bad fab]

La politique française est plein de gens d'importance...

Thanks for this funny story about a deputy mayor !

[big bad fab]

Guillaume was pwned by a new comment

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FYI, Horos is the other me...

[big bad fab]

There won't be ANY MRC candidate in these elections (neither on PS lists, nor on Front de Gauche ones, nor on autonomous ones): very surprising for a souverainiste movement.

But the MRC is dying, like Chevènement...

[big bad fab]

The right is very low. You're almost obliged to take FN into account ! It's completely weird.
The right is as low as under late Raffarin and under Villepin, but the left is completely unable to appear as a conquering and winning force....

What every election since 2004 teaches us is that a unique party of the right is a big mistake.
I was strongly in favour of it when I saw divisions of the 1980s and 1990s. But it was electorally far better !

We need to have something in the centre-right, to prevent Bayrou from gathering some old UDF supporters who haven't yet understood he is just an ambitious maniac, ready to be the Italian-like candidate of a green-left-"other" coalition.

But who can fill the void left by the old UDF ?

Borloo ? Mmmm.... Drinks too much, unable to lead a strong organization.
Barnier ? Not strong enough to lead politicians who can be "bad guys". A pity, that would have been a good idea.
Juppé ? Too much of the old RPR, centrists can't love him enough.
Villepin ? Come on.... The aim is to fight against a mad man, not to have 2 of them !
A young NC politician like Jean-Christophe Lagarde ? Completely unknown.
A moderate UMP that can be identified as "open" and centrist like Serge Lepeltier ? Unknown.

All the "young lions" are from the mainstream UMP (Copé, Bertrand, Pécresse, Wauquiez, Chatel, Kosciusko-Morizet,...).

[big bad fab]

The right is very low. You're almost obliged to take FN into account ! It's completely weird.
The right is as low as under late Raffarin and under Villepin, but the left is completely unable to appear as a conquering and winning force....

What every election since 2004 teaches us is that a unique party of the right is a big mistake.
I was strongly in favour of it when I saw divisions of the 1980s and 1990s. But it was electorally far better !

We need to have something in the centre-right, to prevent Bayrou from gathering some old UDF supporters who haven't yet understood he is just an ambitious maniac, ready to be the Italian-like candidate of a green-left-"other" coalition.

What you say is completely false and prove how it's difficult for people to understand that the center should not necessarily be a moderate right.

Can't you understand that I'm not talking about political philosophy but political strategy and tactics and elections ?

I'm not talking about the "Centre", a new world of Ideas, "ni droite ni gauche", with a marvelous leader from Béarn,
but about electoral reality: about 40 to 45% of MoDem voters (see good pollsters as IPSOS and IFOP, even SOFRES) are in fact old UDF supporters who would vote for the centre-right if there is one real and strong party, with a real leader, in this place (NC is not, unfortunately).

These voters will be disappointed when Bayrou will be allied with the PS and Greens.
But, at the same time, it's difficult for them to vote for the UMP with Sarkozy or old RPR in the 1st round. This phenomenon is especially clear in Brittany, where the UMP is very weak, because it's too rightist for moderate voters.

Sure, there is real centrists among MoDem voters (about 30-35%). But these ones will never vote for the UMP in the 2nd round. So, they're not interesting in an electoral strategy.

The rest of MoDem voters are from the left and the Greens and come back more easily in the 2nd round. And will come back even in the first round if Strauss-Kahn or Hollande or Valls or Moscovici or even Peillon is candidate in 2012.

[big bad fab]

I must add that you have missed all the debate in the right and the centre-right for a one-party right between 1981 and 2002.

Yes, there was a real difference between UDF and RPR. Moderates against rightists, atlanticists and europeans against gaullists and "souverainistes", social right against liberal right (this difference was between CDS-FD and PR-DL-RPR), "décentralisateurs" against "Jacobins",...

Everybody spoke about "unity", "only one party" during the 1980s and the 1990s, but everybody divided the 2 big parties of the right and even inside each one.
Even inside the parties that made the UDF, there was divisions... the CDS was a good example, with Stasi on the left, Barrot and Méhaignerie in the centre, Boutin on the right and Bayrou everywhere, depending on the time and on the leader....
And there was many wings in the RPR (Pasqua-Séguin e.g.). And there were the "rénovateurs" (Noir, Léotard, Barzach,...).
Etc, etc, etc.

In fact, Chirac made the UMP in 2002 only because everybody (not just the left after Jospin's awful failure) was afraid of Le Pen.
So, the small association "l'Union en Mouvement" was then able to create the UMP.
Of course, almost immediately, as DL was without any big leader after Léotard's end of political life and Madelin's predictable failure, and as FD divided itself, old RPR machinery took control of the UMP, which should have been Chirac's "present" for his heir, Juppé.

Some judicial problems later for the "Chiraquie"..., Sarkozy grasped control of the UMP, as Chirac hadn't any real solution after Juppé and was probably too old to decide otherwise.

Look at the Fougères constituency in Ille-et-Vilaine in 2007 and you'll understand.
Many voters rejected the old UMP candidate (though she was a former UDF-CDS with social and open reputation !) and picked an unknown MoDem candidate, Thierry Benoît, who was elected in the 2nd round thanks to left voters (there wasn't any left candidate in the 2nd round).
Then, Thierry Benoît wanted to re-create the UDF with men like Jean Arthuis and Michel Mercier, but it failed and Benoît is now "apparenté NC"...

Of course, NC isn't this centre-right party that the French right needs electorally.

And, of course, there can be a really centrist party in France.
But with 6-7% of the vote, not 14%, not 19%...

Bayrou just tries not to say the truth (that he is only driven by personal ambition, not ideas) and tries to let centre-right voters believe that one day he can again form an alliance with the UMP (that will NEVER happen) and to let centre-left voters believe that Strauss-Kahn, Hollande or even Royal isn't their "natural" candidate.
The French word for this is "imposture".

[big bad fab]

I must add that you have missed all the debate in the right and the centre-right for a one-party right between 1981 and 2002.

Yes, there was a real difference between UDF and RPR. Moderates against rightists, atlanticists and europeans against gaullists and "souverainistes", social right against liberal right (this difference was between CDS-FD and PR-DL-RPR), "décentralisateurs" against "Jacobins",...

Yes, there was certainly many issues inside the right, but the fact is that these issues didn't have any importance in the political practical. Chirac government had no problem with "social" right deregulating the economy. The moderate conservative Balladur was challenged by Chirac, but running as a radical leftist ( ah, this Chirac ! ). In fact, UDF supported anything that the RPR did to keep safe its constituencies.

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Bayrou is anything but a demagogue. I don't agree with all of his ideas, but he has precise political views : moderate welfare state ( too moderate for the left, not enough for the UMP ), social liberalism, true ( not "positive" ) secularism, "gaullist" conception offrench political independence, refuse of abuses of power and injustices as the disgusting "affaire Tapie". These ideas are certainly more close to the PS than the UMP, but it remains a centrist position.

What is "moderate welfare state" ?
Bayrou isn't courageous enough to say that pensions will be slashed and that health system will be far less generous in the future: we can't follow another path (sure, the UMP and the PS don't say either, but Bayrou heralds himself as the "truth knight").

Raymond Barre told the truth in the late 1970s. Jacques Delors told a part of it in the 1980s. Alain Juppé tried to clean things up in the welfare state in 1995. All 3 were far more courageous than Bayrou... who was an absolute coward when he was Education minister (do you remember ?).

What is "social liberalism" ? Aren't Strauss-Kahn, Royal, Borloo, Barnier "social liberals" ? Bayrou isn't peculiar in this.

True secularism, I can understand, but is Bayrou peculiar in this ? Apart from Sarkozy personally (and maybe Kouchner but I'm not sure), who isn't a true secularist in France ?

"Gaullist" foreign policy is historically laughable from a centrist... But, what is more, it's just out of date. France was already cooperating with military structures inside NATO. Mitterrand and Chirac were far mor atlanticists than we were let to believe...
Bayrou wants to spend less... I don't know how he will be able to have a second aircraft-carrier, enough nuclear submarines, enough airlifters, enough assault helicopters, enough drones, enough militayr satellites, etc, in order to have a base for his "gaullist" foreign policy.
Ah, yes, military Europe. With an indebted Britain, a completely demilitarized Germany, an out-of-date Italian army. Apart from Bulgaria and Greece (big powers !), which European country is spending on defence ?

The only real original speech from Bayrou is about abuse of power and institutional behaviour from Sarkozy.
But it's not a long term political positioning or a philosophy, as, when Sarkozy will be out of power, the problem won't be so acute any longer.

Bayrou is almost nothing in terms of politicial philosophy and is an "imposture" in terms of politics and elections.
The problem is that many Frecnh people forgot about his past when he was an average politician inside the UDF, only interested in winning on Jacques Barrot, Bernard Bosson and Philippe Douste-Blazy, successive potential rivals...

I'm not a socialist, far from it, but I really wish the socialist candidate (any of them, even Royal) will be above him in the 1st round in 2012. We need a clear choice.

[big bad fab]

Anyways, changing from the topic of how Bayrou is this and that, which is not the point of this thread. So, changing topics.

Ipsos (best pollster)

UMP 27% (nc)
PS 23% (-1)
MoDem 11% (+1)
Greens 10% (+1)
NPA 7% (-2)
PCF-PG 6% (nc)
Libertas (MPF-CPNT) 6% (nc)
FN 5% (-0.5)
LO 2% (nc)
DLR 1% (nc)
All Others (MEI-GE, AL, PF, CNI) 2% (+1.5)

OK, this pretty much confirms that Ifop's numbers for the Greenies (and, by consequence, MoDem) are outliers, and probably the same for the FN. However, more pollsters are picking up the NPA's slight dip in support, so that's interesting.

There was a famous sentence in a French film "les Tontons Flingueurs": je vais le faire exploser, le disperser aux 4 coins de Paris, façon puzzle. "I'm going to make him explode, to scatter him up, like a puzzle".

This is the same for European elections in France, since the beginning (1979): a scattered political landscape.

[big bad fab]

This is the same for European elections in France, since the beginning (1979): a scattered political landscape.

Yep, all the elections are that split in France before the 1st run of each.

No, you can't say that.

Presidential elections up to 1995 produced bigger blocks (that's less true since 1995, granted).
In the first round of parliamentary elections, even in constituencies where there are many candidates, few have big numbers.
It can be a bit more divided in cantonal and local elections, but it's around a small number of lists.

Here, you've got UMP, PS, MoDem, Greens, NPA, FN with big or quite big numbers, and PG and MPF-CPNT not far behind...

The only other elections where it is so scattered are the regional ones (1992 and 1998 especially).

[big bad fab]

Hash, we say "Trifouilly-les-Oies" in French )
Very nice remark !

And it's Chantal Emeyoud (not Eyemoud), mayor of Embrun (just up the Serre-Ponçon lake, with a huge dam, very well known in France, because this dam should prevent gigantic floods on the Durance river, like ones that caused many deaths in the 1950s).

Very disappointing to see Lamassoure in a dangerous position....

Note that, in the Ouest constituency, there is no big gun from the UMP in Bretagne.... Still in disarray.... But Béchu will do a fine nr.1 in this constituency.

Note also that there isn't many Juppé boys and girls in the Sud-Ouest constituency. Difficult for Juppé to come back inside the UMP....

[big bad fab]

Mea maxima culpa:
I've made a mistake while correcting your mistake...
Deeply sorry.

Yes, of course, it's EYMEOUD (this time, I haven't screwed up my typo !).

Anyway, about Méhaignerie, I wouldn't say he has an "important" spot inside the UMP.
In fact, they create for him an apparently important mission because it was difficult to drop him entirely, but he is now an outsider. And his "social" counsels to the government irritate Sarkozy...

Locally, Méhaignerie has made a big mistake in joining the UMP, as Brittany's right is more on the centre-right. But it's now too late to join the NC.

[big bad fab]

92 of FN

Wow !

Who are these proud 8% ?

Statistical margin of error...

[big bad fab]

92 of FN

Wow !

Who are these proud 8% ?

Statistical margin of error...

Yes, but 8/100*7/100*5079=28.
That means 28 people that declare wanting to vote for the FN support the entry of Turkey in the EU...

Actually, 25% did not express voting intentions, which would give around 1,270 (rounded) people declaring voting intentions, 89 (rounded) of which vote for the FN, of which seven favour Turkey in the EU. 7 out of 5,079 is tiny.

Maybe, Gollnisch's family, just to have bad numbers for the FN and to be able to criticize Marine's influence...