2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

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Now imagine what races in swing districts where the Republican incumbent doesn't have a +30 favorability rating would be like.

Also, it shows that Trump is the one dragging down the Republicans. The economy is not going to save them.

Those undecided have a 34% approval rating for Trump.

Wallace is going to win. That is, if this poll is accurate.

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Likely D.

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Two more polls showing the Democrats regaining their edge-

YouGov

Democrats: 44% (+2)
Republicans: 38% (-1)


Rasmussen

Democrats: 45% (+2)
Republicans: 41% (-1)

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Paging: Sean T at RCP

The Democrats lead amongst 18-21 year olds (Gen Z) in the Morning Consult poll 48-18%

Same poll, they have a 12-point edge amongst Independents

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Generic Ballot is starting to widen up for the Dems again.

Same with the Trump approval average.  Both of them (on 538) have returned to their levels from around the beginning of May, after narrowing during the month.

And then Quinnipiac comes to BTFO of this narrative.

They literally show Dems up 7, just like the average shows them up 7.

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IBD/TIPP shows another 7-point lead for the Democrats

Democrats: 47% (+1)
Republicans: 40% (-1)

https://www.investors.com/politics/trump-job-approval-economy-korea-favorability-ibd-tipp-poll/

Last poll was released in February

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Ispos/Reuters has Dems with an 11-point lead.

Democrats: 43% (+4)
Republicans: 32% (-5)

Someone get Sean T on the phone!

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2018-06/2018_reuters_tracking_-_core_political_06_06_2018.pdf

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He’s such a ing hack

https://twitter.com/seantrende/status/1004735088180031490?s=21

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Dems up 8 in 538

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RCP has yet to enter the Fox Poll...

They won’t hesitate to enter Trashy Rassy’s though.

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The Democrats have a 24-point lead amongst College Educated Whites in the NBC poll...

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Also more numbers from the NBC poll-

Trump's war on the FBI is not paying off. The Bureau gets a +32 favorable rating.

Mueller has a +11 favorable rating

50% say they have reservations/are uncomfortable with a candidate being endorsed by Donald Trump. Only 29% say the opposite.

55% say they have reservations/are uncomfortable with a candidate  that supports building a wall on the southern border.

51% Say they have reservations/are uncomfortable with a candidate that supports Trump's tariffs.  Only 27% say they are comfortable/enthusiastic with a candidate who supports them.

67% say that the country would be better off if we had more women in political office. This is good for the women in the Democratic Party.

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The Generic ballot is getting much wider again and polls are now regularly have Dems up 9-10%.

it is gonna crash

Why would that be?

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Ispos-

Democrats: 45% (+1)
Republicans: 35% (+2)

Democrats up 13 points with Independents.

COLLAPSE

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2018-06/2018_reuters_tracking_-_core_political_06_13_2018.pdf

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Ispos-

Democrats: 45% (+1)
Republicans: 35% (+2)

Democrats up 13 points with Independents.

COLLAPSE

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2018-06/2018_reuters_tracking_-_core_political_06_13_2018.pdf

yeah, looks like the slight dem bump is over

That's fine, doesn't seem to be a reversion. They're in flip territory with these numbers. The big win in Wisconsin came after the Trump-Kim summit so I don't see any GOP bump coming from the event.

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Monmouth:

Democrats 48 (-1)
Republicans 41

Essentially no change from April, even as Trump has his best numbers in over a year.

COLLAPSE!

#DemsInDisarray

Anyways, the Tax Reform bill is not helping the GOP.
Approval for the cuts is at 34%, which is down six points from April

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Is this just men in general or white men. Because if the GOP is only leading by one, then how is are Democrats only up by 7?

Men in general.

It's going to be a bloodbath in November.

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Let's see more crosstabs...

18-34 year olds going for the Democrats by 16 points, 55+ going for them by 9.

Republicans winning whites by 9 points, while the Democrats are winning non-whites by 40.

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Saw on Twitter:

Quinnipac poll has people opposing separating families at the border 66-27%

Republicans support it (shockingly) 55-35%

Such fine Christian people!

__________________________-

Democrats oppose 91-7%

Independents oppose 68-24%

Every age group has at least 60% of respondees opposing the practice.
80% of 18-34 year olds oppose it

60% of Whites oppose

88% of Blacks oppose

80% of Hispanics oppose

70% of Women oppose

61% of Men oppose

This is going to end disastrously for the GOP

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https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1008763694967328768

I have a strong feeling the Dems are going to far exceed expectations on election day, just like the GOP did in 2010, and that's what the polls are showing.

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https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1008763694967328768

I have a strong feeling the Dems are going to far exceed expectations on election day, just like the GOP did in 2010, and that's what the polls are showing.

If they win OH 12, which is a bellweather, will tell if the Dems have exceeded the 273 blue wall, by winning in OH, a Lean GOP state. If they don't, then all bets are off again.

Lol

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Tenney is DOA

McGrath's chances are north of 80%

The New Jersey delegation is looking likelier to have only one Republican.

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Tenney is DOA


McGrath's chances are north of 80%

McGrath is probably likely to win but no way she wins by 15 points or more.
Again, this is an internal.

True, but the DCCC polls are a lot better than most other pollsters.

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Tenney is DOA

McGrath's chances are north of 80%

The New Jersey delegation is looking likelier to have only one Republican.

I haven't seen good evidence that Lance is going down.

I've seen good evidence that Lance is going down.

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Several NM house polls by Carroll Strategies:

U.S. Congress CD 1:

Democrat Debra Haaland – 47%
Republican Janice Arnold-Jones – 42.7%
Libertarian Lloyd Princeton – 3.6%
Undecided – 6.7%

U.S. Congress CD 2:

Republican Yvette Harrell – 48.5%
Democrat Xochitl Torres Small – 34.7%
Undecided - 16.8%

U.S. Congress CD 3:

Democrat Ben Ray Lujan – 58%
Republcan Jerald Steve McFall – 30%
Libertarian Christopher Mannin – 4.7%
Undecided – 7.2%

Plus:

Governor:

Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham – 50.5%
Republican Steve Pearce – 42.1%
Libertarian Bob Walsh – 3.1%
Undecided – 4.3%

U.S. Senate:

Democrat Martin Heinrich – 49.8%
Republican Mick Rich – 39.3%
Libertarian Lloyd Princeton – 3.6%
Undecided – 6.7%

https://www.kob.com/politics-news/poll-lujan-grisham-leads-pearce-in-race-for-governor/4956518/

Junk.

Decimals, and Haaland is not winning by just 4 points.