2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Roll Call says average number of House seats in a midterm is 33 for the opposition party.  The polls will tighten.

However, there is an ethics cloud hanging over the Trump administration that voters will go to the polls with and that's a winning hand for Dems. Which translated to victories in PA-18 and AL-Senate

It is highly likely that the Democrats will win way more than just 33 seats.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

At this point, I have completely given up on tracking the generic ballot polls. All the pollsters, no matter what result they post, acknowledge the fact the GOP is probably going to lose the House in November.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

At this point, I have completely given up on tracking the generic ballot polls. All the pollsters, no matter what result they post, acknowledge the fact the GOP is probably going to lose the House in November.

Just like how they said Hillary had a 95% chance of winning in 2016? 😜

It's like you popped right off of r/the_donald

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I'm kind of curious how high Trump's approval can go while still resulting in a D wave. Obama was basically neutral/low disapprove in 2010 (Gallup) - maybe somewhere between -1 and -3, and Democrats got blown out in that midterm, losing the House PV by around 6.8%. The polls have expanded and tightened but every other metric still indicates a wave. Aggregated special election results+turnout, recruitment/donors, general midterm backlash effect and even strong approve/disapproves for Trump.

Either way, I'm not too concerned. Democrats are in much better shape than Republicans were in March 2010, polling-wise. My bet is that the environment begins to shift towards Democrats in the last few weeks and solidifies from there on out, regardless of where it was beforehand.

That is what is expected, according to G. Elliot Morris.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Tiffany Trump calling it....blue wave imminent:

She's a millennial woman who just graduated from an Ivy League school and she's going to law school in Georgetown. Of course she's liberal.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I don't think I was attacking Barron in any way. I sympathize with the kid. It can't be easy being the son of a popular President. That's kind of what I was trying to say.

Popular???

Haha whoops, that's a horrible typo. Obviously I meant "unpopular." I'll fix it now.

I was FLOORED for a couple of seconds...

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

YouGov/Economist

Dem: 42% (-2)
GOP: 35% (-3)

G. Elliot Morris hasn't release his updated chart yet, but the gradual decline in the GOP's numbers in Ispos, YouGov, and PPP should be in line. It predicted a very short and minor GOP bump around this time.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Democrat advantage is rebounding.

538: D+7.1
RCP: D+6.8

 

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The graph don't lie.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Harvard-Harris Poll:

Democrats +11

Democrats: 45% (+4)
Republicans: 34% (-2)

http://harvardharrispoll.com/

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Not a poll, but 47% of Dem-held House state legislative seats will go uncontested this midterm.

(edited to avoid future corrections --mod.)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/donnermaps/status/980826111029293057

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/donnermaps/status/980826111029293057

He's talking about state legislature seats, not US House seats.

Oh well. Still significant.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Ispos:

Democrats: 43%
Republicans: 35% (-2)

Dems rebounding!

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM1212Y17/filters/PD1:1

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Morning Consult/Politico, March 29-April 1, 1997 RV

D 41, R 37 (exactly the same as their previous survey).

Don't get too excited, Limo.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

PPP: Rod Blum has a -20 (34/54) approval rating in IA-01

Trump (41/54) and Paul Ryan (26/61) are also underwater. The tax bill is extremely unpopular (31/53), while the ACA is popular (47/35).

Neato.

Not sure if it's from the same poll, but it was also just reported he's several points down on his Democratic Challenger. pretty bad shape for an incumbent.

Iowa is going to be ground zero to the Midwestern snapback against Republicans.

PA is gonna be pretty bad for them too.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Ispos:

Democrats: 43% (-2)
Republicans: 33% (-2)

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM1212Y17/filters/PD1:1

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

MI-08 Target Insyght Poll:

Bishop (i) (R): 45%
Slotkin (D): 39%

2016 Results -

Bishop (R): 56%
Shkreli (D): 39%

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Harvard Institute of Politics Spring 2018 youth poll, March 8-25, 2631 adults age 18-29 only

D 69 (+4 from Fall 2017 poll)
R 28 (-5)
 
Other items:

Trump approval: 25/72 (no change from Fall).

37% say they will definitely be voting, compared to 23% in 2014 and 31% in 2010.  This includes 51% of young Democrats and 36% of young Republicans.  In 2014, it was 28% of Ds and 31% of Rs; in 2010, it was 35% of Ds and 41% of Rs.

Additional details at http://iop.harvard.edu/spring-2018-poll.

If that holds, the Democrats are taking at least 50+ house seats.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I’m curious how QPac’s sample’s work. Those are some bonkers swings compared to relatively stable polling we’ve seen elsewhere

I just looked at their subsamples... They have democrats leading 18-29 voters....

46-42!!! WTF?

Yeah, that's... not right.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Qpac usually gives solid polls, but this one is seriously f***ed up. 18-29 year olds aren't going to give the GOP even 30% of the vote in November, let alone 42%.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I got to say guys haven't had enough factors like retirements, fundraising #'s, candidate recruitment, and swings at the local level that we don't need to freak out over the CGB? Like back in Feburary Trump was getting good poll upticks and a R+1 poll in the MC yet I'm a blink of an eye Penn got its maps rewritten, Lamb wins, and Costello retires. It's getting late in the gane for the GOP to turn the ship around

A-friggen-MEN

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Democracy Corps (3/25-4/2)

Democrats: 47%

Republicans: 38%

Party Favorability-

Democrats 38%-41%  -3 Favorability
Republicans: 28%-50%  -22 Favorability

Others-

Obamacare: 42%-40%   +2 Support
GOP Tax Law: 35%-41%   -6 Support
NRA: 40%-43%   -3 Support


Certainty of Support (!!!)

Strongly Dem: 30%
Weak Dem: 18%

Strongly GOP: 22%
Weak GOP: 16%

http://www.democracycorps.com/attachments/article/1081/Dcor_GR_AFT_National%20RV%20Phone_FQ_040218.pdf

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

AZ-08 Special Election, Ohio Predictive Insights: http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/382924-poll-republican-holds-10-point-lead-in-arizonas-special-election

Tiperneni (D) - 43
Lesko (R) - 53

Trump won this district by 21 points in 2016.

Franks won here by 38 points in 2016. Tiperneri needs to get this within 10 points, and I'll be satisfied.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Lmao "No knockout"