2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

District 2 is definitely ours, there's no question. 7 and 11 are likely flips as well. 4 will be close.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

3 will be much closer than 4

You're right, I don't know why the hell I said 4. I meant to say 3.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

That Monmouth poll only represents a 2.88% shift from 2016 in the GOP held districts.

Then again, dems take the house if they just do 2.88% better than Hillary in every district.

Those Romney/Clinton voters are coming home due to the tax bill, so good luck with that.

Lol the support for the tax bill is waning.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I know! One bad poll and the media goes into "DEMS ARE DOOMED!!!" narrative, despite all the factors still favoring a Dem takeover in November.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Marist, April 10-13, 827 RV

D 44, R 39 -- Identical to their previous survey

This poll has Democrats only winning 18-29 year olds by 1.

Throw it in the trash.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The Federalist is on it

https://thefederalist.com/2018/04/18/new-polls-undermine-forecast-blue-wave-midterms/

Does the media ever get tired reporting on every bit of movement in the GCB?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Ipsos/Reuters, April 15-19, 1260 RV

D 42 (-1)
R 36 (+3)

"DEMS ARE DOOMED!"

Headlines incoming...

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Ipsos/Reuters, April 15-19, 1260 RV

D 42 (-1)
R 36 (+3)

"DEMS ARE DOOMED!"

Headlines incoming...

They're not doomed, but they're at their lowest point (on the generic ballot) since more than a year ago.

You don't think I know that?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

As Trump begins to dip in approval, Dems become much more complacent and will stop voting as a check on him. Anyone calling for a Blue Wave is staring at a foolish fantasy.

*Ignores the fact Republicans were out-raised in 60 seats they hold, record number of GOP resignations, national environment, historic unpopularity of the President, Democrats winning in areas they shouldn't be, human capital of Dem candidates, etc.

But hey! Surely a few polls discredit all of that.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Weren't we promised a poll from Nevada today?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Ann’s vulnerability doesn’t surprise me at all. The GOP is tanking in suburban support.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

That Cook article makes perfect sense. Independents always claim they have no idea who they are voting for, that drives down both sides's numbers in polls.

What determine's their vote in a midterm is their opinion on the man or woman who is sitting in the Oval Office, and the author made it pretty clear that Independents despise Trump. We have been seeing with the special election results that they have been breaking heavily in favor of the Democrats. Both Lamb and Tipirneni won the independent vote by immense margins that were above 60%.

I guarantee you that if pollsters began to push independents and undecideds to tell which way they were leaning, the Democrat margin would be much higher than it is.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Democrats are back up to an 8.2 lead at 538.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Ipsos/Reuters, April 22-26, 1891 RV

D 44 (+4)
R 33 (-2)
D+11 (+6)

The previous D+5 may have been an outlier, as the last before that were D+9 and D+10.

Any comments on the blue surge Limo Liberal or Hofoid?

Wait for the Korea GOP/Trump bounce.

Korea is not going to change anyone's vote.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

MO: Republicans +3

Source

Looks like Wagner is vulnerable after all...

What would pocess Hawley to release this poll to "quell" GOP fears? He's leading McCaskill by only a point, Greitens is 20 points underwater, and it shows that the GOP is weak in the state. Idiot.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

GOP + 3 in Missouri is a disaster lol. I don't even believe that Wagner is vulnerable.

Yep, it's a disaster for the Dems. Considering that they've banked on winning suburban seats like Wagner's...this will be a rough November. I can see the GOP gaining 10 seats at this rate. Just wait for the N. Korea bounce.

Yep, now I know why King Lear has been inactive.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Morning Consult

Dems: 43% (-1)
GOP: 34% (-1)

They polled Gen Z (18-21 year olds)

Dems: 58%
GOP: 20%

Millennials (22-37 years old)

Dems: 45%
GOP: 28%

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Some interesting numbers from Morning Consult:

Dems lead with Catholics 43-38%
Dems leading in the suburbs 45-33%
Dems lead amongst Moderate 47-24%
Dems leading men 42-36%
Dems leading amongst Students 60-19%
Dems winning Midwest 44-32%

GOP losing African Americans 7-72% (Not interesting, just funny because of the whole Kanye crap)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Voters trust the Dems with the Economy 40-35%
Trust the Dems on Healthcare 58-19%
Trust the GOP on security 63-21%
Trust the Dems on Education 47-23%
Trust the Dems with Energy 56-16%

As we can probably tell, if they had a push poll, meaning they pushed the undecided to tell which way they were leaning, the Dems would have a much higher lead. Cook was right. Independents are going to break Democrat. The reason why the Democrats aren't leading by a landslide in the polls is because Independents are less willing to answer the question.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

NY-22: Zogby finds Brindisi leading incumbent Tenney

http://www.uticaod.com/news/20180502/poll-brindisi-ahead-of-tenney-in-race-for-congress

Brindisi (D) - 47
Tenney (R) - 40

When undecideds are pushed it's 55-45.

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Tenney won by 5 points (46-41) here in 2016 as the district went for Trump 55-39.

Brindisi winning 57% of Independents, 68% of 18-34 year olds, and 59% of women.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Monmouth Poll Crosstabs-

Dems winning Millennials 53%-20%
Dems winning 23% of Conservatives
Democrats winning moderates 52%-37%

Dems and Reps tied 40% for independents, I question that

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

No Kanye shift for the GOP
Millennials still heavily favor the Democrats over the GOP
Another poll showing Dems winning white college grads

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The Pew poll is not very credible lol.

Explain.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Poll of the new PA-07: http://www.mcall.com/news/breaking/mc-nws-pennsylvania-congress-pa7-poll-20180504-story.html

Conducted May 3, 408 RV

Morganelli +18 over Nothstein, +15 over Browning.

Democrats +11 on the generic ballot.

53% disapprove of Trump.

The link to the pdf to the full results is not functioning at the moment.

Excellent.