2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please (user search)
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  2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please  (Read 145157 times)
Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« on: June 27, 2018, 11:51:33 AM »
Harvard/Harris-

Democrats: 45% (+1)

Republicans: 36% (-1)

http://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Final_HHP_Jun2018_RegisteredVoters_Topline_Memo.pdf
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1 on: June 28, 2018, 02:43:27 PM »
Quote from: ajc0918 on June 28, 2018, 02:19:08 PM
Quote from: dfwlibertylover on June 28, 2018, 02:09:55 PM


Winnable.

Have we seen a poll where Love is above 45%? I don't think we have
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #2 on: June 29, 2018, 06:44:39 PM »

Enough to boot Coffman in November?
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #3 on: June 29, 2018, 08:30:22 PM »
Quote from: Virginia on June 29, 2018, 07:09:07 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on June 29, 2018, 07:04:46 PM
Enough to make him sweat, at a minimum.

If it was a 5 pt win, it would probably not be unreasonable to start talking about a 5 - 2 delegation, even if just barely. Coffman is absolutely gone with a 5 point dem win margin.

And with the eventual switch to LV coming soon.

We should also expect the majority of undecideds to break for the Democrats.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #4 on: July 02, 2018, 01:33:34 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on July 02, 2018, 01:06:36 PM
Quinnipiac

Democrats 50%
Republicans 41%

Would you like to see Congress be a check on President Trump, or not?

Yes 71%
No 20%

More motivated to vote than usual, less motivated, or are you just as motivated as usual (More-Less-Same)?

Democrats 58-5-38
Republicans 41-0-58

Source


Holy hell, that enthusiasm gap.

The GOP is going to defecate themselves when pollsters begin to make the shift to LV.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #5 on: July 02, 2018, 01:40:34 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on July 02, 2018, 01:35:34 PM
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on July 02, 2018, 01:33:34 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on July 02, 2018, 01:06:36 PM
Quinnipiac

Democrats 50%
Republicans 41%

Would you like to see Congress be a check on President Trump, or not?

Yes 71%
No 20%

More motivated to vote than usual, less motivated, or are you just as motivated as usual (More-Less-Same)?

Democrats 58-5-38
Republicans 41-0-58

Source


Holy hell, that enthusiasm gap.

The GOP is going to defecate themselves when pollsters begin to make the shift to LV.

It will depend on the pollster, some will have it as a requirement that in order to get through their LV screen you would have had to have voted in 2014.

Doesn't really take away the purpose of my post.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #6 on: July 02, 2018, 03:52:16 PM »

Republicans and Dems tied for support in the Midwest and the South

Suburbs going to Democrats 51-38%
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #7 on: July 02, 2018, 04:28:27 PM »
LOL the IBD pollster claimed that Sarah Sanders and Kirstjen Nielsen getting chased out of restaurants is helping Trump.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #8 on: July 02, 2018, 08:43:38 PM »
Quote from: IceSpear on July 02, 2018, 04:33:46 PM
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on July 02, 2018, 04:28:27 PM
LOL the IBD pollster claimed that Sarah Sanders and Kirstjen Nielsen getting chased out of restaurants is helping Trump.

Their poll #analysis is always ridiculously biased, but to their credit they don't seem to ever fudge the raw data.

I would love to meet the voter who wasn't going to vote GOP at first, but is now going to because Nielsen couldn't get her chicken fajita.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #9 on: July 04, 2018, 03:37:29 PM »
Rasmussen D+6-

Democrats: 46% (+1)
Republicans: 40% (-1)

It was D+4 for a while.

http://m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #10 on: July 04, 2018, 08:41:58 PM »
Quote from: Cory Booker on July 04, 2018, 08:41:10 PM
Dems will win blue state Governor mansions, but it's likely now, GOP will hold their slim majorities

How did you come up with that conclusion when it's clear that the polls show the Democrats are in flip territory.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #11 on: July 04, 2018, 09:58:24 PM »
Quote from: Cory Booker on July 04, 2018, 08:51:50 PM
Marist polled OH and DeWine is up by 4 and Trump approvals in OH and FL are at 51 percent. And the Dems are on defense in Senate

Are you implying that because Trump is at positive approval in Ohio (he's not) that Brown is immediately DOA, even though he's been leading the polls by 15-points?

King Lear, is that you?
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #12 on: July 05, 2018, 01:58:04 PM »
Crosstabs-

Blacks going to Democrats 72-4%

Bu-b-but Candace Owens said... Sad

Democrats leading in the south 41-40% (!!!)

Democrats leading in the midwest 42-37%

Democrats winning moderates 48-23%
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #13 on: July 05, 2018, 05:50:03 PM »
Scott Taylor knows what a DCCC internal poll is saying about the race? X
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #14 on: July 06, 2018, 12:55:16 PM »
"tHe MaNUfacTurEd ImMigrAnT SepArAtIOn sToRy HurT thE DEmoCraTs!"

  -Fox News, Newsweek, Breitbart, Daily Caller, etc. etc.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #15 on: July 06, 2018, 02:25:05 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on July 06, 2018, 12:59:24 PM
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on July 06, 2018, 12:55:16 PM
"tHe MaNUfacTurEd ImMigrAnT SepArAtIOn sToRy HurT thE DEmoCraTs!"

  -Fox News, Newsweek, Breitbart, Daily Caller, etc. etc.

They're manufacturing immigrants now?  Isn't this how the Clone Wars started?

You know what I mean.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #16 on: July 10, 2018, 09:11:37 AM »
Did they provide an explanation for moving NY-25 to the GOP?
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #17 on: July 10, 2018, 03:46:31 PM »
Emerson-

Democrats: 49% (+4)
Republicans: 42% (+2)

Democrats get an 18-point lead in the midwest, 52-34%

Unrelated to the generic ballot, but it shows that 41% of 18-34 year olds prefer a socialist system compared to 42% who prefer a capitalist system. Ocasio bump?

https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-national-july2018-PR.pdf
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #18 on: July 10, 2018, 03:53:15 PM »
Quote from: YE on July 10, 2018, 03:52:09 PM
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on July 10, 2018, 03:46:31 PM
Emerson-

Democrats: 49% (+4)
Republicans: 42% (+2)

Democrats get an 18-point lead in the midwest, 52-34%

Unrelated to the generic ballot, but it shows that 41% of 18-34 year olds prefer a socialist system compared to 42% who prefer a capitalist system. Ocasio bump?

https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-national-july2018-PR.pdf

That's been the case for quite some time. Dating back to 2012 at least.

I don't really think so...
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #19 on: July 10, 2018, 04:04:42 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on July 10, 2018, 03:57:55 PM
Lol we don't need to analyze crosstab results from Emerson polls. Just look at the topline, put it into the average, and move on. It's a crappy poll.

I'm just telling people what the poll says. I'm sorry your "DEMS ARE DOOMED" narrative sunk two months ago.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #20 on: July 10, 2018, 05:09:07 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on July 10, 2018, 05:08:00 PM
NC-09 (Civitas): McCready +7



Lean D
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #21 on: July 11, 2018, 07:12:56 PM »
Quote from: superbudgie1582 on July 11, 2018, 07:10:11 PM
Quote from: 1-Term Donnelly on July 11, 2018, 03:48:27 PM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on July 11, 2018, 10:02:55 AM
Morning Consult went from D+8 to D+5
YouGov went from D+4 to D+4
Rasmussen went from D+6 to D+8
An net overall tightening. Perhaps, Dems will start seeing the backlash to wanting to abolish ICE.


About a .3 tightening.

Dems in disarray...

Speaks louder that they're pulling away in RASMUSSEN of all pollsters.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #22 on: July 11, 2018, 09:16:53 PM »
Quote from: 1-Term Donnelly on July 11, 2018, 08:56:09 PM
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on July 11, 2018, 07:12:56 PM
Quote from: superbudgie1582 on July 11, 2018, 07:10:11 PM
Quote from: 1-Term Donnelly on July 11, 2018, 03:48:27 PM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on July 11, 2018, 10:02:55 AM
Morning Consult went from D+8 to D+5
YouGov went from D+4 to D+4
Rasmussen went from D+6 to D+8
An net overall tightening. Perhaps, Dems will start seeing the backlash to wanting to abolish ICE.


About a .3 tightening.

Dems in disarray...

Speaks louder that they're pulling away in RASMUSSEN of all pollsters.
That should be a red flag more than anything.

Hot-take Hofoid
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #23 on: July 12, 2018, 09:01:28 PM »
The Democrats are back up to an 8-point lead in the RCP average, 8.4 at 538.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #24 on: July 17, 2018, 07:43:30 PM »
Dems at +9.1 on 538, and +8.2 on RCP.
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