2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

These internal polls are devastating to the democrats.

LOL

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Joey Salads raised only $32K LMAO

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Gabbard raised -$20 in Q2... that’s not a typo

https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1152210947534131200?s=21

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Sebelius staffer Abbie Hodgson is IN for KS-02. Tough district but a strong candidate, and given Watkins is a disaster, I think it's worth keeping an eye on her. Likely R.

Safe R, really. If Paul Davis couldn't win this district in a D wave, I'm doubtful another Dem could in a more Republican year (at least in this district).

Not that it really matters, but did Kelly carry the district?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/VApoliticalmeme/status/1153329471564464128

Could be nothing, could be something

Democrats be like Plz  be Wexton so the GOP can waste another 10 million.

Speaking of Wexton, the GOP got a decent candidate up for the fight with Wexton. Too bad this seat is both moving to the left at the speed of light, and guaranteed to lose red areas like Fredrick and Warren in 2020 redistricting (Fair redistricting creates a third NOVA Dem seat in Fairfax+Loudoun, Dem Redistricting might get wirder but still ends up with a 60/40 clinton seat at minimun).

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1153291575558103042

So if the GOP wants to sink another 10 mil, its on them.

Please, he will lose handily.

Of course Josh Kraushaar, of all people, is bloating his chances.

Anyways, Wexton will win by at least 15 points.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Another House recruit: Sara Hart Weir (R) officially in against Rep. Sharice Davids (D) in KS-03

https://twitter.com/sarahartweir/status/1155858444047585280

Ah yes, she speaks fondly of her friend with Down syndrome but she won't hesitate to vote to gut the ACA, a program many people with DS rely on.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Big money from NRCC.
https://twitter.com/ZachMontellaro/status/1156330494834958336?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...

I wanna see them internals.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/HurdOnTheHill/status/1157078754679828480?s=19

Congratulations to Representative Gina Ortiz Jones!

Doubt that she will be able to win the 2020 primary.

There's literally no other serious candidate in the field... I'm also pretty sure the DCCC is backing her.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The NRCC’s top recruit for Susan Brook’s district is out

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1157338171518148609?s=20

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The NRCC’s top recruit for Susan Brook’s district is out

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1157338171518148609?s=20

ya love to see it

Who said this was their top recruit? Its a red district with tons of GOP pols in the district.

A former GOP mayor of a typically democratic city with a population of over 800K is obviously a very strong politician.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Demaio raised 100k in 2 hours, 250k in 24 hours for congressional bid. The website crashed for several minutes because it had so much traffic.

https://timesofsandiego.com/politics/2019/08/06/demaio-reports-raising-250000-in-first-24-hours-as-congressional-candidate/

Likely D

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Demaio raised 100k in 2 hours, 250k in 24 hours for congressional bid. The website crashed for several minutes because it had so much traffic.

https://timesofsandiego.com/politics/2019/08/06/demaio-reports-raising-250000-in-first-24-hours-as-congressional-candidate/

Likely D

He's primarying the law-breaking nincompoop that is Duncan hunter. A primary win would be both an improvement for the CA congressional delegation, as strange as that seems, and probably pushes what should be a safe R seat back closer to that leaning. Also he is preferable to Issa, who is also looking at the potential to replace Hunter.

Oh I thought he was running in CA-52 like he did in 2014.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

"Ok, Peterson will lose THIS time!"

-Atlas for the 26th cycle

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

"Ok, Peterson will lose THIS time!"

-Atlas for the 26th cycle

Not really. This is probably the first cycle (at least in the last 20 years) where most people think Peterson is in a sh**tload of trouble.

Lol, yes really. They were going ballistic in 2018 🤷🏻‍♂️

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

"Ok, Peterson will lose THIS time!"

-Atlas for the 26th cycle

Not really. This is probably the first cycle (at least in the last 20 years) where most people think Peterson is in a sh**tload of trouble.

Lol, yes really. They were going ballistic in 2018 🤷🏻‍♂️

Not serious. There hasn’t been a single Republican in the MA delegation since 1995 and I doubt that nutjob is the one to change it.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

"Ok, Peterson will lose THIS time!"

-Atlas for the 26th cycle

Not really. This is probably the first cycle (at least in the last 20 years) where most people think Peterson is in a sh**tload of trouble.

Lol, yes really. They were going ballistic in 2018 🤷🏻‍♂️

Not serious. There hasn’t been a single Republican in the MA delegation since 1995 and I doubt that nutjob is the one to change it.

Do you realize Peterson is in Minnesota, not Massachusetts? And in a district that voted for Trump by 30% no less

That was meant for my analysis on Curt Schilling, not Peterson. I accidentally replied to my own comment rather than to 96FJV.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://www.rollcall.com/news/campaigns/gop-poll-tossup-house-race-in-the-houston-suburbs

Fletcher trails by 2 in NRCC internal. To be taken with a massive grain of salt.

LOL Likely D. I wouldn’t be shocked if Fletcher won by double digits. This seat is gone for the Rs.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Trump 2020 manager believes GOP can win back 8 CA seats.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/gop-plans-california-comeback-in-2020-trump-campaign-manager-brad-parscale-says-at-state-convention

Eight? Besides the 7 that flipped last year who’s the eighth? Ami Bera?

No. It’s just him being stupid.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Elizabeth Warren endorsed Jessica Cisneros. Hopefully this starts a cascade

She endorsed Marie Newman (running against Lipinski in IL-03) as well:

https://twitter.com/rollcall/status/1171108104609705984

If Newman wins, the Democratic Party will continue its descent into being the party of the woke, "wine-track" liberals, rather than a party with room for ideological diversity and for social moderation.

Anti-choicers don’t belong in the party, sorry.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

CA-48 Poll from TargetPoint and the CLF:

Michelle Steel - 42%
Harley Rouda - 42%
Undecided - 16%

+/- 5.3%, Conducted August 10-11

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1173100438708789248?s=20

R-internal.

Lean D, closer to Likely.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

CA-48 was the only CA Dem win with a real flawed incumbent. Rouda could fall in 2020.

Yes, but more likely in 2022 I think.

I doubt that. It’s really a D trending district.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yeah, but IL-14 is a Toss-Up because muh PVI and Trump won it in 2016 (by 6 points less than Romney.)

Queen Lauren will win again, and it will be by a lot.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Republican Janet Baresi has entered the race in OK-05 against Kendra Horn. Baresi is a former dentist and state school superintendent.

The GOP nominee here is basically 99% likely to be a woman. All 4 major candidates are women.

Once a man jumps in, that number will fall to zero

Fact check: false.

It’s really just simple math. If a dude jumps in, the women are going to split the female Republican vote amongst themselves, but go ahead and doubt me

If voters actually voted based on gender like that, sure.

How naïve to think gender isn’t a factor, especially in a Republican primary

Republicans nominated a woman in WV-03 of all places.

She was the ONLY woman running and won the primary with 23% of the vote. Of the 10 Republican women you could have used as your “exceptions to the rule”, you chose the single worst one

Yes, but don't you constantly spout about how misogynistic WV is?

Other "misogynistic" "racist hick" districts such as IN-02, WY-AL, AL-02, TX-12, NY-21, and WA-05 elected Republican women, it's not just suburbs lol.

That’s cute. You don’t think gender or sexism has anything to do with the fact that less than  10% of the Republican caucus is female

You aren't very good at mathematical probability. If the 4 main GOP candidates are women, there is a 99%+ chance the GOP nominee will be a woman. If 4/5 are women, there is an 70%+ chance the GOP nominee will be a woman.

This being a Republican primary alone decreases the chances of the nominee being a woman to <50%.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

FL-26: Debbie Mucarsel-Powell raised $500K in Q3, has $1.2 million on hand-

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1182703004862025728

FL-26 and FL-27 are not gonna flip while Trump is president. The GOP will try but it isn't going to happen unless there's a scandal.

26 is on the edge of competitiveness. 27 I agree.

Nah. Neither of them are going to be particularly competitive. The 26th voted for Clinton by a comfortable margin.