2018 Gubernatorial Rankings

[South Dakota Democrat]

Dems pickup AZ, FL, GA, IL, ME, MD, MI, NM, OH and TN
GOP pickup OR and RI
AK remain indie 8 seat pickup by Dems

I very much doubt that the Dems pickup MD, GA, and TN while losing OR and RI.  CT seems much more likely to be a GOP pickup than those 2.

I also very much doubt that Walker wins in AK.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Walker is capable of winning in AK

Doesn't mean he's favored to, or that he ultimately will.  Also, why's he so unpopular then?  And how does he overcome the split vote with Begich? (even though Walker isn't a Democrat, I think he'll be perceived as one, since it was him one on one against a Republican last time)

[South Dakota Democrat]

Best case scenario Dems +9 26D-24R's; never mind MA

You seem very stuck to the idea that Dems will win MD.  What makes you think this?  I see literally no evidence of this thus far.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Best case scenario Dems +9 26D-24R's; never mind MA

You seem very stuck to the idea that Dems will win MD.  What makes you think this?  I see literally no evidence of this thus far.

You didn't notice that he has MA favoriting the Dems, as well?

I did, but he had a note saying to forget MA, so I assumed he made a mistake and was aware of it but just didn't change the map accordingly.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Safe D:
CA
OR
IL
NY
NM
HI

Likely D:
CO
NV


Lean D:
PA
RI
MI
CT
ME
AZ
MN

True Toss-up:
FL
MI (moving this left if Whitmer wins the primary)
GA
AK

Lean R:
IA

Likely R:
OH
WI

Safe R:
ID
WY
SD
NE
KS
OK
TX
AR
TN
AL
SC
VT
NH
MA

Hmm.....

[South Dakota Democrat]

Dems will win MI, WI, IL, OH, FL, PA, GA and FL

IA is not likely R, it's lean at best.  SD is not a tossup, I'd say lean R right now.  I'd put OH at tossup.  GA I'd put at tossup.  NV I'd put at tossup.  I don't think we have enough evidence that KS or OK are tossups, I'd put them both at lean R.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Preliminary Rankings



Safe D: CA, NM, HI, IL, PA, NY
I don't see any scenario in which these races go Republican.

Likely D: OR, CO, MN
While the Democrat is no doubt favored, there is a slight chance the Republican pulls off a victory.

Lean D: NV, MI, GA, WI, ME
These races are competitive, but the Democrat has a slight advantage.

Pure Tossup: AK, FL, OH, CT, RI
These races are highly competitive and could go either way.

Lean R: AZ, KS, OK, IA, MD
These races are competitive, but the Republican has a slight advantage.

Likely R: SD, TN, SC, VT, NH
While the Republican is no doubt favored, there is a slight chance the Democrat pulls off victory.

Safe R: ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL, MA
I don't see any scenario in which these races go Democratic.

Notes:
For Oklahoma, if Cornett wins the primary it's Likely R, if Stitt wins it's Tossup.
For Kansas, if Colyer wins the primary it's Lean R, if Kobach wins it's Tossup.
For Rhode Island, if Raimondo wins the primary it's Tossup, if Brown wins it's Lean D.

Seems reasonable.  Personally I'd go tossup for AZ but lean R is fair too.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Definately David Garcia and Stacy Abrams will win😁

You know neither the spelling nor the meaning of the word definitely.