Why in the world do people think Pence would win NH?
New Hampshire was the closest contest in 2016 after Michigan. If Pence was to improve upon Trump's margins, he'd almost certainly carry the state.
Yes I know it was the closest after MI; that doesn't tell us much. Even if Pence improved on Trump in the national PV, which is a big if, but even if we assumed that, the votes would come from elsewhere first. Pence would hold on to MI, flip MN, and maybe even NV before NH. Heck, I'd actually have him coming close in CO before flipping NH.
Trump was a great fit for NH and the GOP's best shot since 2000 to flip the state, and even he came up short. If Trump couldn't do it against an unpopular Clinton, then Pence isn't getting anywhere near the Dem candidate. Pence is pretty much the worst possible fit for NH that I can conceive of, outside of someone like maybe... Huckabee. Or Ben Carson.
NH has a large number of relatively elastic independents, but first off- they don't swing for someone like a Pence-type, and second- that's a shrinking demographic in the state. The other large group of people in NH are those that have moved from Boston and Pence is a hilariously bad fit for that demographic.
