Now this is as of today (this map will likely chance over time), and also assumes third parties get less than 3% of PV).
http://www.270towin.com/maps/4AY3P
I did have Arizona has leaning republican before, but the pardon of that sheriff (whatever the heck his name is) makes me less sure about the state. In terms of which column the battlegrounds go into:
Toss-up: Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Hampshire, and Maine (at large).
Too many toss-ups. You're conflating "toss-ups" with "battleground" states. A true toss-up is a state too close to call. It's like a coin-flip; either side has a roughly equal chance to win it.
Without any state polling, we don't know yet what the toss-ups will be for sure, except that FL will probably be one. Maybe PA too. Other than that, who knows.
