2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Hindsight was 2020]

Man, you guys are never a day late. About a month and a half to the day of the last major panic. Seriously, some of you need to grow a pair

Tbf this is mostly sarcaism. Even Limo agrees this has a off sample.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I got to say guys haven't had enough factors like retirements, fundraising #'s, candidate recruitment, and swings at the local level that we don't need to freak out over the CGB? Like back in Feburary Trump was getting good poll upticks and a R+1 poll in the MC yet I'm a blink of an eye Penn got its maps rewritten, Lamb wins, and Costello retires. It's getting late in the gane for the GOP to turn the ship around

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/984459168609423360

[Hindsight was 2020]

Tidbit from this politico article: https://www.politico.com/story/2018/04/13/gop-house-seats-trump-country-519214

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Bit surprised Garrett isn't in any danger. Last I heard he was behind his dem challenger in fundraising  

[Hindsight was 2020]

NBC: D+7
"Ethusasim for midterm" D:66% v R:49%
 https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-shows-democrats-have-midterm-intensity-advantage-no-knockout-yet-n865916

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/985910755764637699

This is why I just can't buy the idea that dems will blow the midterms. There are so many states like NJ, Penn, NY, Cali, MI were they have a bunch of seats in serious play

[Hindsight was 2020]

That Monmouth poll only represents a 2.88% shift from 2016 in the GOP held districts.

Then again, dems take the house if they just do 2.88% better than Hillary in every district.

Those Romney/Clinton voters are coming home due to the tax bill, so good luck with that.

So you're going to finish what King Lear started?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Dems hit their lowest point on RCP generic ballot average since early 2017 -->

https://twitter.com/LPDonovan/status/986677613816111104

As it was foretold https://mobile.twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/979857141942153216

[Hindsight was 2020]

The bizarre trend of Trump approval going slightly up while CGB gets worse continues

[Hindsight was 2020]

Limo when the dems win the house you need to change to R/blue

[Hindsight was 2020]

PPP spent the week before the 2016 election reassuring Dems anxious about the Comey letter that a Clinton victory was coming, seen in those tweets. I don't trust any attempt by them to say "everything's fine" because of that (though I do think there is no reason to panic over one poll).

Why are people obsessed that I said b*tch? Have they ever considered that I talk like that in real life?

You think there’s no reason to panic over one poll yet created a thread for a CNN poll so you could do your usual trolly song and dance

Somehow I did a "trolly song and dance" without actually trolling? Cause all I did was post a significant poll, just like PittsburghSteel did with this thread a week ago: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=291035.0
That thread was arguably more inexcusable, considering Morning Consult is a pretty unreliable weekly tracking poll while CNN is far more high quality. However, I won't make threads for individual polls in the future.

The title of that thread was deliberate trolling Limo. Come on now, we've had like 4 CGB today from respected sources that were 9+, two that were +7, and the 3+, and you make a thread about the lowest one

[Hindsight was 2020]

Yes a GOP internal that won't release it's results so we don't know if it's aganist a generic D, a named opponet, or if they are within the MOE. Limo this is why people accuse you of being a troll

[Hindsight was 2020]

What's up with Ipsos poll? Are they just not pushing undecideds?

[Hindsight was 2020]

I'm noticing that people are treating the NK summit as the source of why "blue wave is dead" which is dangerously stupid

[Hindsight was 2020]

F**k off Limo seriously this bit is getting really obnoxious

[Hindsight was 2020]

Oh spare me Limo the biggest political needs like G. Elliot Morris have said that this is suppose to be the best time polling for the party in the WH during the midterms. The fact that dems are leading by around the 6-7 points they have since forever is better than the reps were in 2010 and 2014.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Benchmark Model released their first House Model which has the dems winning 26 seats https://shareblue.com/benchmark-model-gop-lose-house-midterms/amp/

[Hindsight was 2020]

Benchmark Model released their first House Model which has the dems winning 26 seats https://shareblue.com/benchmark-model-gop-lose-house-midterms/amp/

These models are still pretty meh. PA-17 being Lean R? I'm pretty sure if dems don't win PA-17, they aren't winning 15 house seats. Conor Lamb should be able to win this race easily.

Agreed so it's quite telling the dems still win the house with a bit of an R friendly model

[Hindsight was 2020]

The political environment is changing, part 2.

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/996437200014278662

CLF polling in the 48 most competitive congressional districts has D+3. It was D+11 in December.

For God sakes Limo you are so desperate to annoy you are citing a GOP Superpac Internal?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Morning Consult:
Dems: 43%
Reps: 38%

[Hindsight was 2020]

Forgot about this but PPP did the special election in Ohio's 12th and has it:
Republican Troy Balderson: 45%
Democrat Danny O’Connor: 43%

[Hindsight was 2020]

Despite the generic ballot, we are seeing in these special elections that the momentum is still clearly in a blue wave mode.

There have been 40 applicable special elections in this dailykos spreadsheet in 2018.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1C2MVeM2K7WgqmJw5RCQbWyTo2u73CX1pI8zw_G-7BJo/htmlview#gid=0

Average swing leftwards in the 20 most recent special elections in 2018: D+3
Average swing leftwards in the first 20 special elections in 2018: D+24

Their momentum is clearly slowing down, if not stopped completely.

Counter point the most recent 20 are in bluer districts with the recent NY local races making up a huge chunk thus the swings by default won't be as big

[Hindsight was 2020]

Despite the generic ballot, we are seeing in these special elections that the momentum is still clearly in a blue wave mode.

There have been 40 applicable special elections in this dailykos spreadsheet in 2018.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1C2MVeM2K7WgqmJw5RCQbWyTo2u73CX1pI8zw_G-7BJo/htmlview#gid=0

Average swing leftwards in the 20 most recent special elections in 2018: D+3
Average swing leftwards in the first 20 special elections in 2018: D+24

Their momentum is clearly slowing down, if not stopped completely.

Counter point the most recent 20 are in bluer districts with the recent NY local races making up a huge chunk thus the swings by default won't be as big

Ok, let's take away NY. We have a n of 10, so less reliable but the swing is still a measly 6.1 points left.

Take away NY and the districts are still alot bluer than the first 20 so point still stands

[Hindsight was 2020]

That's a very odd way of asking questions...

Can we even count that as a generic ballot poll?

Yeah what do we do with the 9% that want republicans independent of Trump?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Honestly RCP and 538 don't have a poll that is younger than 5 days ago. There has been a really dearth of polling