MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread (user search)
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  MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Rate this race
#1
Safe D		  
#2
Likely D		  
#3
Lean D		  
#4
Tilt D		  
#5
Tossup		  
#6
Tilt R		  
#7
Lean R		  
#8
Likely R		  
#9
Safe R		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 284

Author Topic: MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread  (Read 132210 times)
Greedo punched first
ERM64man
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« on: July 04, 2017, 02:37:38 AM »
Wagner isn't running. Is McCaskill DOA?
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Greedo punched first
ERM64man
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« Reply #1 on: July 06, 2017, 07:59:32 PM »
Let's see if Hawley runs.
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Greedo punched first
ERM64man
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« Reply #2 on: July 17, 2017, 09:53:52 PM »
Quote from: TheLeftwardTide on July 17, 2017, 09:39:31 PM
Tilt R, bordering on Lean R. I just can't see a repeat of something like Akin happening again, not in the current political climate.

Maybe if a Trumpite is nominated she can carry suburban voters and win MO-02...? *barfs*

Maybe if a boring establishment Republican is nominated, the rural turnout is depressed...?

I just don't see a feasible path to victory. McCaskill will have the right political tailwinds in 2018, with 2-term incumbency + Trump  likely a good year for Democrats, but is that enough in Missouri?
It depends on the Republican.
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Greedo punched first
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« Reply #3 on: July 17, 2017, 09:56:13 PM »
Probably Jason Kander.
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Greedo punched first
ERM64man
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« Reply #4 on: July 20, 2017, 06:10:12 PM »
Does Hawley run?
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Greedo punched first
ERM64man
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« Reply #5 on: July 22, 2017, 02:02:01 PM »
Any other Republicans who might run?
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Greedo punched first
ERM64man
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« Reply #6 on: July 22, 2017, 06:02:48 PM »
Hawley hasn't filed for candidacy yet.
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Greedo punched first
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« Reply #7 on: August 12, 2017, 05:38:06 PM »
In an unlikely race between McCaskill and Petersen, who would win?
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Greedo punched first
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« Reply #8 on: August 12, 2017, 06:26:41 PM »
Quote from: Dwarven Dragon on August 12, 2017, 06:20:31 PM
Quote from: ERM64man on August 12, 2017, 05:38:06 PM
In an unlikely race between McCaskill and Petersen, who would win?

This is the one scenario where McCaskill could realistically eek it out 49-47 or so. She'll lose to Hawley 44-51 or so, and would have been blanched against Wagner.
Would McCaskill lose to a no-name Republican like Aaron Hedlund or David Humphreys?
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Greedo punched first
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« Reply #9 on: August 12, 2017, 07:12:11 PM »
Would McCaskill lose even if 2018 is a very bad year for the GOP? I always thought Missouri was a red state, but not extremely red downballot like Oklahoma and Wyoming.
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Greedo punched first
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« Reply #10 on: August 13, 2017, 11:51:53 PM »
« Edited: August 13, 2017, 11:53:51 PM by ERM64man »
Roy Blunt, an entrenched incumbent, only won by 3 points against Jason Kander. I can't see McCaskill losing to Petersen or some no-name GOP candidate. If a non-incumbent Republican is largely unknown or makes a mistake like Blunt in 2016, McCaskill could win, especially if Trump's approval rating in Missouri declines.
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« Reply #11 on: January 11, 2018, 01:49:32 PM »
Eric Greitens' scandal might help McCaskill.
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Greedo punched first
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« Reply #12 on: February 03, 2018, 05:05:38 PM »
Wagner already declined.
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« Reply #13 on: February 05, 2018, 07:50:38 PM »
If Wagner runs, could she win the primary?
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« Reply #14 on: February 08, 2018, 07:40:38 PM »
Republican Kristi Nichols is in.
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« Reply #15 on: March 13, 2018, 12:32:35 PM »
Roy Moore endorses Courtland Sykes.
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« Reply #16 on: May 15, 2018, 01:49:30 AM »
« Edited: May 15, 2018, 11:16:00 AM by ERM64man »
Some believe Hawley and the far-right's favorite boogeyman framed Greitens.
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Greedo punched first
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« Reply #17 on: August 12, 2018, 05:27:33 PM »
Does Hawley win Republican stronghold Johnson County (which McCaskill won in 2012), which Tony Monetti won in the primary?
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« Reply #18 on: August 19, 2018, 01:35:40 PM »
Does Josh Hawley win Johnson County, which he lost to Tony Monetti in the primary?
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Greedo punched first
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« Reply #19 on: August 19, 2018, 02:08:24 PM »
Quote from: Absurdly Weak Retail Politician MT Treasurer on August 19, 2018, 01:44:35 PM
Quote from: ERM64man on August 19, 2018, 01:35:40 PM
Does Josh Hawley win Johnson County, which he lost to Tony Monetti in the primary?

How is this a serious question?
It's largely a GOP county, but McCaskill won in in 2012. Akin even lost it in the primary.
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