More likely: Newsom doesn't make CA-GOV runoff or Jones beats Moore in AL-SEN?

[Greedo punched first]

Roy Moore leads in every poll, except the tied Fox News poll. The CA gubernatorial race has at least 3 contenders (Newsom, Villaraigosa, and Chiang). Which is more likely: Moore losing to Jones, or Newsom failing to make runoff?

[Greedo punched first]

Who would win an Antonio Villaraigosa vs. John Chiang race?

[Greedo punched first]

First is impossible, so second by default. It'd be very surprising, but primaries are inherently more unpredictable and unstable. Also, Newsom could get caught in scandal or something and collapse. Moore would win even if caught with both a live boy and a dead girl. Even if Moore died tomorrow his corpse would win the election by a hefty margin. Newsom's corpse probably wouldn't, lol.

Do CA Democratic gubernatorial candidates Akinyemi Agbede and Ted Crisell have a better chance of winning against Newsom than Doug Jones has of winning against Moore?

[Greedo punched first]

Zoltan Istvan making it into the run-off is more likely than Jones beating Moore.

That must mean a Chiang-Crisell or Villaraigosa-Agbede runoff is more likely than Jones winning.

[Greedo punched first]

What plausible scenarios might cause Newsom to finish third or worse in the gubernatorial primary?

[Greedo punched first]

Would Roy Moore win even if he's caught colluding with North Korea?

[Greedo punched first]

Would Roy Moore win even if he's caught colluding with North Korea?

Yes, easily. His followers would dismiss it as fake news.

Would his followers dismiss it even if Fox News says the collusion with North Korea is true?

[Greedo punched first]

Would Roy Moore win even if he's caught colluding with North Korea?

Yes, easily. His followers would dismiss it as fake news.

Would his followers dismiss it even if Fox News says the collusion with North Korea is true?

Yes. Remember Megyn Kelly at the first GOP debate?

If they wouldn't even believe right wing Fox News, where are they getting their news?

[Greedo punched first]

Zoltan Istvan making it into the run-off is more likely than Jones beating Moore.

That must mean a Chiang-Crisell or Villaraigosa-Agbede runoff is more likely than Jones winning.

Me winning the Powerball then getting struck by lightning immediately after is more likely than Jones winning.

You mean even a R vs. R runoff in a California US Senate race between Sanford Kahn and Steve Jones (who both live in the same House district!) due to Democrats running 3 times as many candidates in a jungle primary is more likely than Doug Jones beating Roy Moore?