I figured I'd look at the google trends for the state to try and get a better look at the race.
Not surprisingly, in the past week you can see Immigration skyrocketing (migrant caravan bump):
Healthcare has been consistently the highest political trend in the state, which is good news for Donnelly, but the immigration bump has got to be a plus from Braun. If you look at the county map, Healthcare is the top issue in Donnelly counties and immigration is the top in Murdock counties (although there are a fair amount of Murdock counties with Healthcare on top still):
Basically, Donnelly needs Indiana to defy its political lean and he seemed to be doing alright. But with immigration issues mobilizing the state's fundamentals, it makes sense Braun is getting the wind in his sails at the right time.
I think Tariffs could decide this race if it is really close. There is a small uptrend in the Blue line for Tariffs in you graph... And this is one issue that has seemed to create a backlash for Trump in Midwestern states (and could explain why polling models may overestimate Republican support this year?)
