Beto O’Rourke 2020 campaign megathread

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was arrested for DWI and Burglary in 1996

The Burglary was for going on to a University of Texas El Paso property with friends... and was dropped.  The DUI is obviously more serious... but it has been brought up in every primary and election he's ever been in and has never had an impact.  After all, the last President from Texas also had a DUI & didn't effect his electability at all.

Regarding SC... Beto was never competing for Top 3 there.  The two states Beto has the chance of a surge later on down the road are in IA & NV (not SC or NH).

SC was always probably going to end up being a Biden state with Kamala as the only chance to challenge Biden- and Bernie will end up likely in 3rd with a steady but maxed out support at 15%.

We will see how Beto's numbers grow in IA & NV as Beto finally starts doing national media regularly.  I think it will be key for him to keep a steady and active national media presence (along with the town halls in early states).  But the IA type town halls only work to increase numbers if coupled with the national media presence... which I think he has finally figured out.  But we will see.

There are enough people still bashing him despite low polling numbers... which tells me many do still view him and the come from behind, late surge threat- of all of the candidates in the race.  The poll showing him beating Trump by more than any other Dem could pay dividend if the numbers in the fall show show this type of high electability.  (He beat Trump by 10pts.  I think the next closest was 6pts).

Not to mention many also think Texas is possibly in play in 2020 (and some polls have him beating Trump in Texas) b/c Beto is the candidate that can win over the most Texas R's & Ind's needed to have a chance at pulling off.

But his overall electability could be key in the fall (regardless of what people think about Texas).

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I wonder if Iowa will be for Beto what New Hampshire was for Kasich?

Beto needs for Iowa to go for him similar to how it did for Edwards in the 2004 Presidential Election (this was the election before Edwards went of the rails).  The only difference- Beto needs to come out on top... rather than a strong 2nd place.

In the 04 Iowa Caucus- Edwards made a little splash, then went back to under 5% in the polls. (at this point, Edwards was not in the top 5... and only polling around 4-5%).  Whereas at this point Liberman, Howards Dean, and Dick Gephardt were the front runners... and later Wes Clark lead the polls.  Both Kerry & Edwards ended up having late surges in Iowa... With Kerry finishing a few points better than Edwards.  Final result was (Kerry 37, Edwards 32, Dean 18%, Gephardt 10).  Edwards and Kerry didn't really start surging until the final 6 weeks.

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What will allow Beto to make a comeback...
Is if polls in the fall have him beating Trump by more than other candidates (like the fairly recent one that had him beating Trump by 10pts .... and everyone else was winning by 6pts or lower).

If polls in the fall show this... there will be a strong "most likely to beat Trump" case to be made.  So he should do everything he can to keep appearing in national media as well has small town halls- and hope that at the very least he is increasing his electability polls, even if not necessarily increasing his stance as "1st choice" among Dem candidates right now.

Many in Iowa will be heavily influenced by who is strongest in the "vs Trump" polls that are taken in the latter part of the year.

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Beto should also campaign some in Florida.  Many Dems will have bad matchup numbers vs Trump in the all important Florida.... Beto is a candidate that could potentially gain some strength in vs Trump in Florida (even if he is lower in the Florida Primary polls).

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nothing is ever decided this far out... just when you think someone is out- all of a sudden something brings them back.

That said- if Beto does stay below 4% from this point forward- Biden has the nomination wrapped up.  Beto is the only candidate who could potentially draw enough support from Biden to allow one of the other candidates to catch up with him.

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This is the one issue that some of the die hard Trump Supporters (in NC) would actually not have a problem with.  I've heard several of my family members who are hardcore Trumpets say that something has to be done about the Gun issue... and that no one needs an AK47 or AR15 (these are Females & Octogenarians).

So I think this is an issue that will prove to break hard and fast- in favor of a ban on semi-auto rifles (although a mandatory buyback would be very hard to accomplish, even though many would not have a problem with it in theory).