Newfoundland and Labrador election, 2019

[brucejoel99]

Deadline for nominations today, and so far the NDP have nominated a grand total of...  five candidates.

What the actual f**k? They could've been competitive this time...

For a party that nominated a candidate in every riding as recent as just the last election, this is sadder than sad. It's stupidly sad.

[brucejoel99]

Something tells me a Liberal minority government is the most plausible outcome.

Yeah, the polls may have the PC's slightly ahead (or in a statistical tie), but the Liberals have the advantage of incumbency in a lot of districts, with MHA's who are popular in their districts. So I'm thinking a Liberal minority government, with only a few seats separating them & the PCs. PC's make their gains in east/central rural NL, & keep suburban St. John's. Liberals hold west/Labrador, & pick up a few seats in St. John's proper.

Also, an unstable minority government means it's back to the polls in the fall.

[brucejoel99]

How can a minority government be "the most plausible outcome" when the NDP+Independents will be lucky to win more than 2 seats combined?

"[L]ucky to win more than 2 seats combined" is a bit melodramatic lol

It's not hard to see the NDP holding onto both their districts, with Coffin retaining the most orange seat in the province & the NDP holding onto a pretty urban area. That's 2 seats right there.

Independent-wise, Paul Lane can hold onto Mount Pearl-Southlands, & re: Joyce, I think name recognition & length of service will end up outweighing partisanship & political scandal, imo.

So, 2 NDP, 2 Indys; say the Libs walk out of election night with 19 seats to the PC's 17: boom, minority government.

[brucejoel99]

The blue wave crashes on the rock! Much had been made of the run of conservative governments. Conversely, NL seems to have looked around, presumably said to themselves, "nah this aint it chief," & decided not to join in.

In all seriousness, though, glad to see that another province didn't fall to the conservatives.

[brucejoel99]

The Liberals aren't that much better in Newfoundland; they've been running the province in austerity mode the last four years. The province hasn't had a decent Premier since Danny Williams, who led a PC government - but was very anti-Conservative.

Really? I've heard in passing that it was Williams & his PC's who were responsible for NL's debt crisis. Is this a massive oversimplification, or just plain wrong?

[brucejoel99]

Reading the Twitter thread about the recount process, it really could've gone either way. Some rather dubious decisions by the judges about which ballots should count and not.

Can anything be appealed or is this final final?

Final.