August 2020 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election

[brucejoel99]

Why did Sloan overperform?

SoCons gonna SoCon.

Very surprised at how well Leslyn Lewis did. She certainly has a bright future in the Conservative Party, probably a future leader.

Yeah, Lewis honestly had a huge victory here, if not the final victory.

There's also the "where would Leslyn Lewis run?" question--and for all the hoopla over her, there's no guarantee that *she'd* have sufficient Liberal-giant-killing star power, either.  (Though in a weird way, I have this notion of her running in Etobicoke North on Doug Ford's coattails.  I'm not saying it'd be a *winning* sort of big; more a reflection of where the Conservative mindset is at)

Presumably, O'Toole would just parachute her into a safe riding. Which one, who knows?

Though it's hard to think of the kind of "safe riding" where she'd be a good fit.  (Oshawa?)

For better or worse, we're at a point where Conservative leadership stars might not actually have that much star-quality half-life beyond the closed loop of Conservative politics.  Or if she has a "bright future", it's more a reflection of the kind of party it is, than of the kind of bright-future figurehead she might be...

Tbf, she doesn't have to be a good fit for such a given riding's voters nevertheless casting their votes for the CPC. A safe riding is "safe" for a reason.

[brucejoel99]

There's also the "where would Leslyn Lewis run?" question--and for all the hoopla over her, there's no guarantee that *she'd* have sufficient Liberal-giant-killing star power, either.  (Though in a weird way, I have this notion of her running in Etobicoke North on Doug Ford's coattails.  I'm not saying it'd be a *winning* sort of big; more a reflection of where the Conservative mindset is at)

Presumably, O'Toole would just parachute her into a safe riding. Which one, who knows?

Though it's hard to think of the kind of "safe riding" where she'd be a good fit.  (Oshawa?)

For better or worse, we're at a point where Conservative leadership stars might not actually have that much star-quality half-life beyond the closed loop of Conservative politics.  Or if she has a "bright future", it's more a reflection of the kind of party it is, than of the kind of bright-future figurehead she might be...

Tbf, she doesn't have to be a good fit for such a given riding's voters nevertheless casting their votes for the CPC. A safe riding is "safe" for a reason.

Even so, Canada's a much more awkward place for parachuted outsiders than, say, the UK.

Somehow, I can't sense the "get Leslyn Lewis in ASAP" urgency here--or if anything, I can see her making the leap to *provincial* politics, where there's many more compatible presently-held Conservative GTA seats and she'd likely be a cinch for a Ford cabinet...

Eh, I don't see it being too awkward for her, if it even is at all. Chrystia Freeland was parachuted from abroad into Toronto Centre, Joe Clark (by then both the former PM & the once - & still future - Calgary Centre MP) parachuted into Kings-Hants, Kellie Leitch of Winnipeg was parachuted into Simcoe-Grey, & none other than Andrew Scheer of Ottawa was parachuted into Regina-Qu'Appelle. If it's a safe riding, people don't care.

[brucejoel99]

So what happened in Quebec? Why did O'Toole do so good there? Most analysis before last night predicted MacKay would be stronger there.

That's because everybody forgets that CPC members in Quebec are so different from (& so few compared to) the average Quebecois voter that they're not at all representative of what Quebec would really want.

For instance, O'Toole won the Laurier-Sainte-Marie riding last night. It's a Quebec Solidaire stronghold, so at 1st glance, this would seem quite baffling. But when you check how many CPC members there are in Laurier-Sainte-Marie, it starts to make sense: 41(!), & I'd venture a lot of them might be uprooted English Canadians. In 2019, the CPC candidate in that riding came 5th with only 2.82% of the vote. And that ain't a one off. The CPC was also 5th in the riding in 2008, 2006, & 2004, despite that being back when the NDP had next-to-no presence in Quebec & the Greens weren't even a party with an MP yet. In 2000, the PCs placed 6th because the Marijuana Party came 4th. The last time a conservative party did better than 4th was 1997, when the PCs came 3rd.

Basically, everybody forgot that appealing to people in Quebec ≠ appealing to CPC members in Quebec.

Isn't it also the case that O'Toole speaks much better French than MacKay or Lewis? I could see that mattering more in practice than naive ideological considerations.

Yeah, actually having a grasp of the French language certainly doesn't hurt one's appeal to people in Quebec.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1298097602932748289?s=20

First poll with O'Toole as leader isn't exactly a great sign for the Tories - this sort of thing isn't a death knell for a persons leadership and shouldn't be looked at in that way but you don't want your leader burying you into a bigger hole than you were in when they get elected.

Way too early to objectively say what impact O'Toole will have but this isn't a good sign for any potential leadership bounce. In fact, this is the opposite of a bounce & it doesn't seem to a direct result of the WE scandal wearing off on the Liberals or anything.

Tbh, I'm still just mesmerized by that circus from the other night at the CPC shindig. I wonder if that sort of thing could also factor into killing any sort-of new leader bump. I don't think they're gonna be growing that tent any time soon with the "Take Back Canada" shtick.

[brucejoel99]

Lewis has confirmed she is running in the next election. Seat tbd.

Perhaps Thornhill? It's a safe riding which she can be parachuted into, close to her home in Markham, & has a Tory MP in Peter Kent who's approaching his 80s.

[brucejoel99]

He'll be announcing his shadow cabinet next week (relevant mention is at 4:05 in that linked video).

[brucejoel99]

Scheer has announced he will be running for re-election. His seaf is pretty safe, so he should have the job as long as he wants it. I suppose we'll see him in a future cabinet which has got to be the first for a former leader since... Joe Clark?

While it's always possible he just wanted to continue to serve, this also raises the possibility that he tested the private business waters & they said "thanks but no thanks."

On one hand, that'd seem strange because it's a natural home for retiring politicians, but then again, what would he bring? He doesn't really have expertise outside of politics, & I can't imagine he was ever charismatic enough to develop a bunch of sought-after contacts. Harper seemed to bring a lot & so he was very desired; if Scheer got hired, it'd seem like somebody's doing him a favor.

[brucejoel99]

Overall, pretty decent (if perhaps unsurprising) picks by O'Toole. Not a cabinet-in-waiting by any means, but a pretty decent Opposition line-up.