2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2

[Tekken_Guy]

Nah, NY-24 is the last Clinton-R seat to fall IMO.

[Tekken_Guy]

Not directly relevant to congressional races but...

https://twitter.com/MattFriedmanNJ/status/977238455607578626

This could be. I'm iffy on Lance's chances (hey that rhymes!) in November. It is quite funny though how post redistricting his district was meant to have been made safer for him but now there is a real chance that he's in danger if the town of Millburn, Union, and Somerset counties vote for his opponent by similar numbers that they did for Clinton.

Lance has virtually no chance of winning. Malinowski will be the next congressman from NJ-7. He'll get crushed in places like Millburn, Summit, and Westfield. And honestly I see him doing very poorly in Somerset. He'll underperform in Hunterdon but still win. His best hopes lie in Morris and Warren counties.

[Tekken_Guy]

Inside Elections (Roll Call) changes 19 races towards the Democrats:

Solid Republican -> Likely Republican
- Arkasnas 2
- California 4
- Georgia 7
- Indiana 2
- Michigan 7
- New Jesey 3
- Ohio 1
- Ohio 14
- Texas 21
- West Virginia 3

Likely Republican to Lean Republican
- Maine 2
- New Mexico 2
- Virginia 7

Lean Republican to Tilt Republican
- New Jersey 7

Tilt Republican to Toss Up
- Iowa 1
- Pennslyvania 17

Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic
- New Jersey 5

Likely Democatic to Solid Democratic
- California 7
- Florida 13

Source

Excellent. Inside's ratings are the most R-friendly of the three big ones, so this is very good for the Democrats.

They are the most soft-c conservative (slower to change ratings) of the political forcasters. Partly this is their style, partly this is because they have two extra categories (tilts) seats need to move through. If this was a dem majority a a republican tide coming like in 2010, Inside/Rothenberg would be just as slow.

That's true. All of the Solid-to-Likely R moves are already on the board for Cook.

[Tekken_Guy]

Rating changes on Sabato:

AR-02 (Hill): Likely R > Lean R
FL-13 (Crist): Likely D > Safe D
FL-16 (Buchanan): Likely R > Lean R
IA-03 (Young): Lean R > Tossup
IA-04 (King): Safe R > Likely R
IL-06 (Roskam): Lean R > Tossup
IN-02 (Walorski): Safe R > Likely R
IN-09 (Hollingsworth): Safe R > Likely R
KY-06 (Barr): Lean R > Tossup
MI-08 (Bishop): Lean R > Tossup
NM-02 (Open): Likely R > Lean R
OH-01 (Chabot): Lean R > Tossup
OH-12 Special: Lean R > Tossup
PA-16 (Kelly): Safe R > Likely R
TX-07 (Culberson): Lean R > Tossup
TX-31 (Carter): Safe R > Likely R
WV-03 (Open): Lean R > Tossup

There are now 34 Republican held tossups and 2 Democratic held tossups. GOP is favoured in 200 seats and the Dems are favoured in 199.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-house-tilts-toward-the-democrats/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Crystal_Ball+%28Larry+J.+Sabato%27s+Crystal+Ball%29

Most of the ratings changes are just catching up to Cook. King is the biggest new name on the board.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1027213052578619393

The Stivers one seems pretty random. The KS and WA changes were because of the primaries and the NY one was because of the arrest. What happened in OH15? Did his opponent get into trouble?

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1027265581861490688?s=19

More randomness with NJ11, PA7, and PA17.

[Tekken_Guy]

Cook will probably move Heidi to Lean R next week or so. Also TX and TN too.