UncleSam
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,523
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« on: November 07, 2019, 01:39:11 PM » |
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Honestly I think that some of these are just delusional - President Pence is never happening, for example. I also don’t see an option for ‘Trump wins handily’, which I unironically think is a legitimate possibility should Warren be the nominee.
However, the most likely of these scenarios is probably I.2. I doubt that Republican voters will abandon generic GOP senators no matter what happens, and I think if Dems take the senate, barring a massive wave in the presidential election, it will be with 50 or 51 seats. More likely Rs hold 51 senate seats while Dems drop 5 or so seats in the house and Warren or Biden beat Trump by picking off some combination of the upper Midwest and Arizona (probably Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona).
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