State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[Strudelcutie4427]

You guys might want to read the post right above yours.

Yes, where he said low turnout was a factor, just as it was in those Oklahoma specials. I missed "irrelevant" though - that's the part you added.

I live in Massachusetts and I'm genuinely curious why the R won here.

That whole Northern Worcester County area along the NH border is trending republican fast. Its got alot of WWC voters and the swing to trump last year were massive. Of all the towns in it, i'd say they break down as follows:

Gardner- Mill town but not as big as some others, big working class population and was very close in 2016.
Westminster- Rural mountain town (Home of Wachusett Mountain), usually votes republican anyway

Fitchburg- Larger mill town with a state college in it. Usually democrat, but (Now State Sen.) Dean Tran lives here. Alot of WWC voters, but sizable hispanic population

Leominster- The nicer version of Fitchburg. It's been revitalized somewhat and is competitive for both parties. The town center (old mill district) is strongly democrat and the outskirts are more republican

Sterling- Farm town, they have a corn maze there. Pretty republican and just out of both Worcester and Fitchburg's orbits

Holden- I've never been there, but I'm gonna assume its like Sterling, but more liberal given the towns bordering it to the east (Harvard, Boxford, Hudson)

Berlin- Like Holden but smaller and they have a Cabella's (A more redneck version of Bass Pro)

Lancaster- Like Sterling, big, rural, and usually republican. It's pretty well to do from what I've seen though. Part of Fort Devens was here.

Lunenburg- Fitchburg's eastern burb and home to the local Wal-Mart. Its a mix of suburban and rural, but generally leans heavily republican downballot

Townsend- A small town sandwiched between Fitchburg and NH that is very rural and republican. It has more in common with the NH towns it borders than it generally do with massachusetts.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Oh, this has got to be it.

Tran is an at-large city councillor in Fitchburg, pop. 40,414.
Chalifoux Zephyr is at-large city councillor in Leominster, pop. 41,663.

Evenly matched, right?
Except Clare Freda was also a city councillor at-large in Leominster.

I would love to see city results, but it sounds like Freda sapped Chalifoux Zephyr's geographic base.

Maybe Tran would have won anyway, but I bet this was the nail in the D's coffin.

I saw on Twitter that the Dem only won by 2 votes in Leominster, and that the Republican trounced the Dem in Fitchburg.

His margin in Fitchburg was amazing even for an at large councilor. Fitchburg is like Massachusetts’s own little poece of the Rust Belt along with Gardner which is also in this district.

[Strudelcutie4427]

How small are Tennessee’s senate districts if only 6500 people voted in this one?

[Strudelcutie4427]

Tennessee Senate District 17
View County Breakdown
Candidate   Party   Votes   %
Mark Pody   Republican   5,855   51.81%
Mary Alice Carfi   Democratic   5,445   48.19%

2 precincts left

Pody wins but he was an awful candidate

[Strudelcutie4427]

How did Tennessee democrats manage to over perform so much.

The only other place I'm aware of with these insane swings is Oklahoma but I don't think the TN GOP is quite in the same mess the OK GOP is in.

The republican was another nutty “I’m on a mission from God” type claiming it’s his life’s mission to stamp out gay marriage. That battles over, focus on the economy

[Strudelcutie4427]

Are we forgetting that Georgia was in the college football championship game? That’s why turnout was so low.

How does this exactly work? They watched the game Monday night and forgot to vote next day?

Yes. You’d be hard-pressed to get me to do anything the day after the Patriots lost the Super Bowl.

I was a wreck after the perfect season super bowl loss. I didnt even go to school for 3 days after

[Strudelcutie4427]

Please tell me her husbands name is bob

[Strudelcutie4427]

Ill take Republicans in KY by a lot, NH barely, and CT as a total toss up

[Strudelcutie4427]

The Democrats aren’t going to lose any special election in NH, lol. It will be a landslide.

I think they also flip CT by an underwhelming margin and lose KY by only 5-10 or so.

NH: Safe D
KY: Tilt R
CT: Lean D

Your predictions end up making you look like the biggest hack on the forum, even though you aren't a dem.

What was your Ossoff prediction?

Most of MT's reads have been on point, actually.

Most of his stuff except the NH stuff. He hates this state like it’s the plague

[Strudelcutie4427]

Is there anywhere to go for results?

[Strudelcutie4427]

Anyone have a link to the NH and CT

[Strudelcutie4427]

Landslide!


https://mobile.twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/968640333583089664

Results from the portion of KY #HD89 in Jackson County:

Goforth (R): 1320
Smith (D): 225

Roughly 85%-15%

Good news! Let’s hope for some more outta New England tonight

[Strudelcutie4427]

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/968644284307202048

53-47 Spagnuolo (D) leading

I think there’s 5 wards there. Did they add a new one?

[Strudelcutie4427]

Is the New Hampshire district just 6 precincts? Or 5?

I think it’s 5, I’ll call text my friend up there and see if he knows

EDIT: He said there are 6

[Strudelcutie4427]

Does anyone know how the New Hampshire district voted in 2016?

56 Trump 2 Party vote

[Strudelcutie4427]

Republican Cartier wins Laconia W6 with 201 to 182 for Dem Spagnuolo

This puts us at Dem 750, GOP 708.

Any insight on which way the remaining ward leans?

Ward 3 is the most republican part of the city

Wrong. https://twitter.com/KlandriganUL/status/968646739795341312

Yeah I was looking at a map of Portsmouth for some reason. Portsmouth Ward 3 looks big so I assumed it was the outskirts of Laconia. The towns actually look similar on aap

[Strudelcutie4427]

MTT was correct again about New Hampshire.

I’m just waiting for him to be wrong so I can rub his face in it

[Strudelcutie4427]

Yeah Republicans need to be winning districts like this by double digits if they want to take the Governorship

I wouldn’t put too much stock into races like the ones tonight with about 15% turnout in KY NH and CT. Only the super motivated turn out for those. I barely ever vote in these ones myself tbh

[Strudelcutie4427]

Why is Malloy so unpopular?

CT taxes have been raised sky high, and under his tenure GE bolted from the state to Boston

[Strudelcutie4427]

What time do the polls close?

[Strudelcutie4427]

I’ll take the republican 57-42-1

[Strudelcutie4427]

R hold

[Strudelcutie4427]

Are the straight ticket votes counted separately

[Strudelcutie4427]

Turnout figures absolutely freaking abysmal, as with all these kinds of elections.

10.3%. Unless the polling place is way out of the way it only takes 5 seconds to fill in a single bubble

[Strudelcutie4427]

12.5% turn out. That’s just terrible