Non-political 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Megathread

[Strudelcutie4427]

That eye just looks better and better with each frame. Really terrified of what's gonna happen to everyone down in Texas. This could be the first category 4 to hit since Hurricane Charlie in 2004. If you don't know how bad it was look at the pictures from punta gorda. It blasted buildings apart

[Strudelcutie4427]

Jeff on his livestream just recorded a 937mb central pressure at surface.

Building legitimately exploded around him then the pieces flew away. I've never seen a storm like this that wasn't a tornado. Really hoping there's nobody in Rockport or all of Aransas county for that matter

[Strudelcutie4427]

They're also tracking the possibility of a second storm forming behind Irma (would be named Jose if it develops into a tropical storm).

I also think this thread should become a general Hurricane thread for the season.

Jose? Damn Hispanics at it again!

Followed by Katia! Russia!!!!
Then Lee (may be too racist for certain millennial snowflakes)
Maria. More hispanics. Or Russians
Ahh Nate! There's a good old American name haha

I'm thinking Irma hits like Antigua and the Virgin Islands and maybe Puerto Rico. After that it's anyone's guess. Hopefully it curves between Bermuda and NC, but the gulf/SE are in play. Best hope for the US may be if she goes south and gets ripped up by Hispaniola or Cuba. But that would still kill hundreds

[Strudelcutie4427]

They're also tracking the possibility of a second storm forming behind Irma (would be named Jose if it develops into a tropical storm).

I also think this thread should become a general Hurricane thread for the season.

Jose? Damn Hispanics at it again!

Followed by Katia! Russia!!!!
Then Lee (may be too racist for certain millennial snowflakes)
Maria. More hispanics
Ahh Nate! There's a good old American name haha

I'm thinking Irma hits like Antigua and the Virgin Islands and maybe Puerto Rico. After that it's anyone's guess. Hopefully it curves between Bermuda and NC, but the gulf/SE are in play. Best hope for the US may be if she goes south and gets ripped up by Hispaniola or Cuba. But that would still kill hundreds

In honor of Nate Silver and Nate Cohn!

Or Nate Diaz the UFC fighter if it's bad

[Strudelcutie4427]

Irma's projected path as of 11 EDT tonight. Its looking like they're projecting a Category 4 Hurricane in the Bahamas by Friday. Given the trajectory it looks like SE Florida could get walloped by Harvey's twin sister as a Cat 3/4/5. Worst case scenario this hits Miami. But it looks like its still to early to tell if Irma gets turned north or aims for Florida

[Strudelcutie4427]

Hurricane watches for Irma are now posted for the northern Leeward Islands.  It's still too early to tell whether the U.S. will be affected, but the forecasting models have been progressively moving further west.  This does increase the likelihood of a U.S. landfall, although it's still quite possible that the storm could recurve to the northeast and miss the U.S. entirely.

Some good resources:

National Hurricane Center - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Weather Underground "Category 6" blog - https://www.wunderground.com/cat6.  Their last Irma post was https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/hurricane-irma-track-towards-lesser-antilles, but this was from yesterday morning.  A new post should be up later tonight.

Note: take the comments on Cat6 with a grain of salt.  They tend to overreact to every twitch in a model or report, much like daily tracking poll fluctuations around here.

The various projections for Irma's path resonate badly with this article about Tampa's unpreparedness: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/health/environment/tampa-bay-climate-change/

This is a disaster of epic proportion waiting to happen. Has the US ever been hit by two major hurricanes in the span of a single month before?

Yeah, i think the most recent was September 2004 with Ivan (Alabama) and Jeanne (E. Florida), Frances was a Cat 2 and also hit E. Florida that month.

[Strudelcutie4427]

A local TV station said American and European models say it might shift to the right from Cuba and go straight up the state.

May not be too bad if it turns up and makes landfall in Mainland Monroe county (pop 24) since its just swampland. Although if it hits cuba those mountains can really rip Irma apart before she gets to FL

[Strudelcutie4427]

Irma is now a category 5 hurricane with 175 mph winds.  The forecast track has it heading toward the Florida Straits.

Just saw them show the models on the news. Looks like irmas gonna go west into the straights then take a sharp hook north right toward Miami. By this point, we need to be praying for a hit on northern Cuba to knock it down a few notches before it gets to Florida. One "positive" though it's not gonna sit like Harvey did

[Strudelcutie4427]

I can't stop worrying about my family... Climate change, my friends

It's peak hurricane season and the conditions are usually perfect this time of the year. Irma was large enough coming off Africa that she had her own moisture field. No climate change doesn't have anything to do with it. Irma is not the strongest of all time. Not even close yet. Wilma was 882 mb. Hurricane seasons cycle up and down. Remember there was 2005 which had Katrina then 2006 was incredibly in active. Just like 2012 had sandy them 2013 legitimately had only 2 hurricanes that only reached cat 1. There are active years that go nuts and inactive ones that nothing happens. Look up 1933 and 1886s hurricane seasons for instance. And those were likely way more active since there was no satellite to see storms out to sea. No "global warming" then. And remember, there are longer multidecadal cycles of relative activity where we have been in an active period since 1995 that will likely last until 2025 and 2035. The 20s to the 50s were very active then the 60s to 90s were much more quiet

[Strudelcutie4427]

Hurricane Irma is closing in on sustained winds of 190 mph -and should reach 200 mph soon.  

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905144773643816960

200 would be very hard given a pressure of 916. The atmospheric dynamics shouldnt allow for there to be 200 mph winds unless it goes below 900 millibars. Unless the environmental pressure around the storm is very high, then the extreme gradient may allow it

[Strudelcutie4427]

Hurricane Irma is closing in on sustained winds of 190 mph -and should reach 200 mph soon.  

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905144773643816960

200 would be very hard given a pressure of 916. The atmospheric dynamics shouldnt allow for there to be 200 mph winds unless it goes below 900 millibars. Unless the environmental pressure around the storm is very high, then the extreme gradient may allow it

The pressure has been going down steadily with each update. It's entirely possible it hits 200 overnight if it keeps this up.

You might be right. Meteorologist on TV just said the environmental pressures are high so Irma's got the potential. Unfortunately I think its Barbuda thats in the path tonight, and it could be apocalyptic once the storm is gone. We can only hope that there are no people on that island tonight

[Strudelcutie4427]

Hurricane seasons cycle up and down. Remember there was 2005 which had Katrina then 2006 was incredibly in active.

2006 was only inactive compared to 2005. It had about average activity.

Compared to the 1980-2017 average of
14/7/3
It was well below average. 2006 was 10/5/2
Even look recently. We had that 2010-12 stretch where there were 19 storms each year
But then 2013-15 were very inactive
13 was 14/2/0 (most were extremely weak. Strongest was a cat 1$
14 was 8/6/2
15 was 11/4/2

But meanwhile o heard a report that the island of Barbuda (pop 1300) was completely leveled and I'm afraid that was only the beginning of Irnas assault

[Strudelcutie4427]

Go back and see my post about the active 1870s-1890s, inactive 1900s-1920s, active 1930s-1950s, inactive 1960s-1995 and the current active period from 1995-present

[Strudelcutie4427]

Alot of the models look like theyre shifting east, maybe going off shore florida, although under any scenario this will be a disaster. Either for Florida or for Georgia and South Carolina

[Strudelcutie4427]

The 5pm update NHC update has shifted the forecast track to the west a bit.  If this holds up (and it may change again, knock on wood), this would be pretty much a worst-case scenario for southeast Florida.

That would be awful. Miami would  get whacked by the wind and surge off the ocean for the first half, then after the eye passes it'll blow the Everglades into town. If it goes right up the middle it could easily be a major hurricane as it goes through Orlando

[Strudelcutie4427]

St Martin and the upper Leeward islands aren't out of the woods yet, as it looks like Hurricane Jose will pass over them before moving North.

Saw some Model runs earlier and it looks like Lee or Maria might be another Caribbean storm. people down there cant catch a break

[Strudelcutie4427]

Is this the 2004 to 2018's 2005, or are there meteorological factors preventing that?

Seems to happen once every AMO cycle. 1932/1933, 1886/1887, and 2004/2005 featured a landfall-heavy season and then an extremely busy one the following year.

Ironically, this is the same list of names that 2005 used besides Dennis, Irene, Katrina, Rita, Stan, and Wilma which all got retired