Democrats have a very, very good track record with special elections (especially in New York) so I'm not really sure where all the pessimism is coming from.
This is the one district in the entire state that has been drawn to be a hardcore conservative Republican district (arguably NY-13 is Republican because of Republicans´s secondary role as the Staten Island National Party and NY-3 is merely "Long Island Republican" and not overly conservative).
It's R+6. A strong GOP lean, but by no means "hardcore." Dems have been known to win in much tougher territory.
