Changing presidential map or not?

[memphis]

Thought I would throw this out there: a map of Bush's latest approval ratings (admittedly about 6 months old now) from SUSA, adjusted for national eqilibrium:

Basically, no changes. It could be a unique Bush map though - perhaps it will change radically with new candidates. Anyway, discuss.

I think that this is about right. Looking at the map, Bush`s polls  must not be as bad as people say that they are.

That map is Bush's poll numbers adjusted for the national average.  Bush is actually polling at about 35%.

What would a map look like with a 35% job approval rating then?

Everything red except for Wyoming, Utah, and Idaho. However, just because people disapprove of Bush does not mean they're going to rush out and vote Democratic in 2008.

[memphis]

Hmm. I think the '08 map will look quite a bit different than in 2000 and 2004. I agree with some others here that MO is currently "Lean Republican" (the April Bush approval was at 38% in that state, which is high IMO).

OR, MN, PA, MI should be "Lean Democrat" right now. (~5% in favor)

I also tend to say that IA, NM and NH are "Slightly Democrat" (2-5%)

This leaves NV, CO and OH as the main battlegrounds for 2008. (+/-2%)

The rest, AR, WV, VA, NC and FL are also "Lean Republican". (~5%)

So how will '08 be "quite different" than '04? You have all the competitive states going the same way they went three years ago, with a slight bump for the Dems.

[memphis]

memphis, I am curious in your opinion.

Predict, Missouri, Tennessee, and Arkansas in 2008... three hicky states!

Really, really depends on who the nominees are. Missouri is most likely to flip to the Dems followed by Arkansas. I don't see a Dem winning TN unless it is a 400 EV landslide.

[memphis]

memphis, I am curious in your opinion.

Predict, Missouri, Tennessee, and Arkansas in 2008... three hicky states!

Really, really depends on who the nominees are. Missouri is most likely to flip to the Dems followed by Arkansas. I don't see a Dem winning TN unless it is a 400 EV landslide.

kinda sad to say that of those three states, Missouri is the most socially liberal..lol

Missouri is the most urban. Neither TN nor AR has a metro area the size of St. Louis. Memphis and Nashville combined are about the same size, but then you have Kansas City too.