US House Redistricting: Washington

[bgwah]

Ruderman was the first Democrat to win on the Eastside back in the 1990s. She is a skilled politician who can win swing voters in marginally Republican districts. I'm now hoping she'll be the Democratic candidate for WA-01. Hobbs would work, too, but he's kind of an annoying moderate hero at times.

WA-01 is a near-dream district for Koster. It seems probable that he will run again. But he still lost a 50-50 district in a Republican landslide year, so he still might not be favored.

[bgwah]

Larsen is originally from Lake Stevens, but currently lives in Everett. Larsen will definitely run in WA-02.

WA-1/WA-2 is definitely the big surprise for everybody, I think. We didn't realize how easily the Democrats would cave.

And yeah, CK gets the prize, I guess! Good job, lol.

Ah, my memory of Larsen's residence is out of date. So then both WA-1 and WA-10 are open seats and WA-6 has Dicks paired with Inslee, is that right?

Yes. And as Lewis said, Inslee is running for Governor, allowing WA-1 to move completely east of the Puget Sound with out any incumbency issues.

[bgwah]

  "its well scripted and i appreciate it that"
        "hes good at playing that game"

- Tom Huff


Hahaha, he's the most shameless proponent of gerrymandering.

[bgwah]

The WaPo says the Washington Democratic Party strongly endorsed this map. Interesting.

Denny Heck and Rick Larsen must have more influence in the party than I thought.

Apparently the establishment will be backing Steve Hobbs in WA-01, which isn't a terrible move given the map.

[bgwah]

My thoughts: While this map is obviously not the best for Democrats, anyone who was really expecting that was being kind of foolish. Regardless of the partisan make-up of the state, the Democrats and Republicans have equal power in our redistricting process and so concessions were obviously going to have to be made to the Republicans compared to a "fair" map. I also think the 1st is winnable with the right candidate, so we could very well end up with a 6-4 map in the end which I think is pretty reasonable.

The end result isn't terribly shocking, but I still was hoping to avoid the awful lines they came up with. The majority-minority district is simply inexcusable and ruins the entire Seattle-area.

What annoys me even more, was that the Democrats were willing to accept the M-M CD (which obviously benefits the GOP), but then when the Democrats want to make the 15th LD a true majority-minority district (that would also be a swing district), the Republicans refuse and they have to quit for the day! What kind of compromise involves the Republicans getting a chance at a whole CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT and the Democrats not even getting a shot at a legislative district in return?

Huff's map is also very unclear in Spokane (the numbers basically block the view of it completely).

I will admit that I was very naive to think the Democrats would actually ignore the racists arguing for the majority-minority district.

[bgwah]

Animated gif showing 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s:



Fun to watch the districts shift.

[bgwah]

Aw, you can tell I've never watched the redistricting process before. I was so optimistic and naive, actually thinking logical districts would be drawn! Sigh.

[bgwah]

A non-partisan map, where you don't have to care about incumbents or which party would be favored, would have basically resulted in WA-02 containing all of Whatcom, Skagit, Island, San Juan, and part of Snohomish. WA-01 would contain the rest of Snohomish as well as part of King County.

Such a map would result in a swingy 2nd (but likely more Republican than it currently is) and a Democratic 1st. Back in the real world, Rick Larsen wants a safe seat and the Republicans want a chance in one of the districts... so we end up with the crappy map they proposed.

[bgwah]

Crossing the Puget Sound would just result in splitting another big county (Kitsap, which has been split for a while but has finally been unified in the new map). Alternatively you could go for Grays Harbor, Mason, Pacific, and Wahkiakum counties to minimize county splits... but that would be a very big district.

[bgwah]

The 2nd is still huge, but that's not as bad as I was thinking.

[bgwah]

Actually I think Slade Gorton's first map is pretty good.  Doesn't have the district 2 squiggle, and would probably elect 5 D 5 R

http://www.redistricting.wa.gov/assets/maps/122811_drafts/c-gc_2-0_color_statewide_handout.pdf

You just linked the final map?

[bgwah]

The Redistricting Commission still hasn't been able to come to a compromise on the Eastern Washington legislative districts... nor have they resolved the legislative districts that fall on the Pierce/King County lines. The commissioners are only allowed to approve a plan that includes both Congressional and legislative maps, so if they aren't able to compromise in the next 35 hours then the whole thing goes to the State Supreme Court.

I'm confident they'll come up with a map... but the clock is ticking.

Yeah, they'll come up with something. And by that I mean the Republicans will win.

[bgwah]

I watched one of the hearings. Huff was basically like "We had an agreement, you guys get to draw the Democratic districts in Seattle and we get to draw the Republican districts in Eastern Washington!"

They're usually very good about appearing all reasonable and non-partisan in public, and taking recesses to go to the real work behind closed doors, so I enjoyed that...

I wonder if there's more to the story. Perhaps Democrats accepted the M-M congressional district that helps Republicans in WA-01, in exchange for a real M-M legislative district in Eastern Washington that would help Democrats, and now the Republicans are trying to have a watered down district they know they'll easily win.

But I can only speculate, as the public isn't actually involved in the process, despite the charades they put up.

I'm also cheering for a court drawn map at this point. I definitely don't expect it to happen, though.

[bgwah]

This is still a good deal for the Republicans, IMO. A swing congressional district for a swing legislative district? The Republicans would've been silly not to take it... But that's just my opinion. FTR, I drew the most minority legislative district in Yakima possible, and it was still a fifty-point-something Rossi district. The new 15th will definitely be a swing district.

But from what I understand, the deal also stops the 6th LD from becoming Republican, keeping it as a swing district. So there's that, too, I guess.

[bgwah]

Looking at the compromise map, I'm not totally clear on what the Dems traded for.  They seem to have gotten their ideal 15th LD and basically their ideal 6th LD too?

A 51% Rossi 1st district?

[bgwah]

They haven't posted detailed demographics yet... But Wapato, Toppenish, Harrah, White Swan, etc. are not in the district. Looks like it still voted 57% or so Rossi.

In fact it looks like even the most Hispanic part of Yakima (the city) isn't in the district, so I wouldn't be surprised if this district was actually >60% Rossi.

Ha! For a second there I thought there was an actual compromise. But nope. The Republicans won. Again.

[bgwah]

And despite the fact that Republicans quite clearly won, Democrats will look like the bad guys engaging in racial gerrymandering for political gain.

Like I've said already, a very impressive win for Gorton & Huff.

[bgwah]

Your definition of "Republicans winning" seems to be "Democrats not getting everything they wanted".

No, my definition is the Republicans getting everything they wanted. They even got their ludicrous 1st CD. And what do the Democrats get exchange? Not even a legislative district? Really?

I understand this map has great potential to advance your career, and I'm happy for you as a person. I'm not happy as someone who believes in fair redistricting.

[bgwah]

Illogical districts just bum me out. Especially when they're to the other side's benefit!

[bgwah]

^ No, not really.

I suspect Suzan DelBene (Reichert's 2010 opponent) will end up being our nominee.

You think shes willing to drop a couple million again? lol

[bgwah]

Better her than Darcy Burner.

My nightmare scenario is the more serious Democrats split the vote allowing Darcy to pull through.

I like Darcy Burner, but she just isn't the right candidate for the district.

[bgwah]

Does it even matter with the new district?

Why wouldn't it?

[bgwah]

Does it even matter with the new district?

Why wouldn't it?

We are talking of the new 8th, right?

No, Burner is in the 1st now.

[bgwah]

I tried drawing some of last night's Eastern districts. They split a ton of precincts though, so it's approximate:

3rd: 55-45 D
6th: 54-46 R
15th: ~60-40 R (ton of splits, very approximate!)

[bgwah]

Yes... I added the current districts in parenthesis for comparison:

3rd: 55-45 D (57-43 D)
6th: 54-46 R (55-45 R)
15th: ~60-40 R (58-42 R)

So the 15th is actually getting more Republican. Hah. It traded a lot of territory (Klickitat and Skamania) with the 14th. The 14th is currently 64-36 R is probably still >60 R (haven't drawn it).