Washington state megathread

[bgwah]

Results for Evergreen State College (plus a neighboring, student-heavy precinct):

Obama 225
Stein 26
Romney 13
Johnson 5
Anderson 3

lawl.

If Portland had smaller precincts, Reed's precinct would be even worse for Romney (10 at the most).

Sure it would, champ.

[bgwah]

The closest in Whatcom County was a precinct near WWU, in the Sehome neighborhood, that voted 80% Obama, 10% Romney, 9% Other (a mix of Stein, Johnson, and some Rocky Anderson.)

I used to live in that precinct.

Out of curiosity, here it is compared to 2008:

2008
87.18% Obama
10.62%  McCain
2.20% Other

2012:
80.14% Obama (-7.04)
10.40% Romney (-0.22)
9.46% Other (+7.26)

---

And the other Bellingham precinct I lived in:

2008:
87.28% Obama
10.52% McCain
2.20% Other

2012:
83.61% Obama (-3.67)
10.37% Romney (-0.15)
6.02% Other (+3.82)

[bgwah]

Tim Sheldon was "only" re-elected 54-46 over another Democrat in his re-election bid to the Mason County Commission. He beat the same opponent 63-37 in 2008 (and I still can't believe he gets away with holding two elected offices like that). And not that anyone cares, independents won both of the other seats up, beating Democrats in both cases.

It's always interesting when independents win partisan races. It's not terribly uncommon in some of the smaller counties. Wahkiakum also has a 2-1 independent commission. One won in Clallam as well.

[bgwah]

^ I hadn't noticed they released them today! I thought they were going to make us wait until Tuesday. Looks like they've listed I-1240 three times, and are missing pot and gay marriage, so I'm guessing they mislabeled those two as 1240.

[bgwah]

The Obama vs. R-74 map is a racial map. Not that it's surprising, but it's almost too perfect of a match...

Why did Finkbeiner do so well in King County? He didn't seem to do that well as compared to other Democrats in other parts of the state.

He was the only Republican endorsed by The Stranger.

[bgwah]

Any chance of King County maps for Governor and Senator?

[bgwah]

Do we know which party will control the State Senate yet?

[bgwah]

No. I don't see how you could have possibly come to that conclusion. Are you mixing up Capitol Hill and the Central District?

[bgwah]

No; neither Sheldon nor Tom have indicated anything definitive. Last heard from Sheldon was a statement indicating his appreciation at being nominated for PPT (though there was no commitment from him to vote for the arrangement). Schoesler, the new Republican leader, has indicated he likes the coalition idea.

We may get some clarity tomorrow once Benton's victory is confirmed. Or we could be waiting until mid-January.

I wonder if this will shed any light on the situation: http://capitolhillseattle.com/2012/12/05/murray-to-announce-whether-hell-enter-seattle-mayor-race-today-on-capitol-hill

[bgwah]

That seems a pretty good indicator Murray doesn't think he'll end up Majority Leader.

Yeah...

[bgwah]

http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2019857998_voters08m.html

Local conservatives display a mind-boggling amount of ignorance and arrogance in response to the legalization of gay marriage and marijuana.

But hey, why should I be bothered? If they want to give me another 32 years of Democratic victories, then I won't complain.

[bgwah]

Thinking about this more, I suspect Roach threatened to bolt unless they gave her that chairmanship. She also got her caucus privileges reinstated. By giving her both of those things, there's nothing the Democrats could realistically enchant her with to draw her to vote with them (unless she wanted to be Majority Leader or PPT, but that was probably too unpalatable even if majority control hung in the balance).

Perhaps the Democrats should see if Steve Litzow wants to be Majority Leader though

Roach even talked about being the 25th vote earlier this year when the Republicans took over the budget and how she used it to let make them let her back in.

[bgwah]

I think it was just as wrong back then as it is now, but this has actually happened once before: After the 1962 elections Democrats held 50-48 majority in the State House. Dan Evans and Slade Gorton, who were members of the State House at the time, convinced a half-dozen or so Democrats to join with Republicans and installed a conservative Democrat from Spokane as Speaker of the House.

Pfft, I already mentioned that.

And after the 1980 election, Democrats had a 25-24 majority, but Peter von Reichbauer switched parties, giving Republicans a one seat majority. I don't think he managed to become majority leader, though.

[bgwah]

I thought Sen. Jerome Delvin (R-8th) was going to do the Tim Sheldon routine of serving in both the State Legislature and the County Commission simultaneously, but apparently not. He's resigning which means there will be two solid R vacancies (the other in the 7th): http://www.tri-cityherald.com/2012/11/13/2168948/jerome-delvin-to-serve-in-legislature.html

Kilmer also resigned a few days ago.

Just out of curiosity, how much money does Sheldon make by being a county commissioner?

[bgwah]

I thought Sen. Jerome Delvin (R-8th) was going to do the Tim Sheldon routine of serving in both the State Legislature and the County Commission simultaneously, but apparently not. He's resigning which means there will be two solid R vacancies (the other in the 7th): http://www.tri-cityherald.com/2012/11/13/2168948/jerome-delvin-to-serve-in-legislature.html

Kilmer also resigned a few days ago.

Just out of curiosity, how much money does Sheldon make by being a county commissioner?

About $80,000 a year.

In addition to his State Senator salary, eh? haha, I can't imagine a liberal getting away with that.

[bgwah]

http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2019965978_rodneytom23m.html

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lol

[bgwah]

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Lololol. Since when does Eastgate count as a modest neignborhood?

Well, by Eastside standards...

[bgwah]

http://blogs.seattletimes.com/politicsnorthwest/2013/02/04/about-30-people-apply-for-open-port-of-seattle-seat/

Gregoire's daughter going to get more involved in politics?

[bgwah]

Hopefully McGinn wins. I didn't like him at first but he's grown on me and all of his opponents are awful. We also have a county executive race---I think the only question is whether Constantine hits 70% or not.

Oh, and MEEKER, we need a '13 thread title. Something making fun of Rodney Tom, perhaps?

[bgwah]

Sheldon has been doing the conservative Democrat thing for a long time now. His district knows that and has re-elected him numerous times anyway. If we had a partisan primary he would be in trouble, but we don't so he's probably fine. He only won his last bid as Mason County commissioner 54-46 against another Democrat, though. He beat the same woman 63-37 in 2008. So perhaps his popularity is declining. I'm guessing he'll be re-elected.

Tom will have a tougher time. The incumbent Democratic state representative in his district got something like 69% last year. The open seat was won by a Democrat 61-39. Obama won 61-35. Even Inslee won 53-47. I'm guessing he will lose if he runs again.

[bgwah]

Filing deadline was yesterday!

With Burgess dropping out, it is looking like McGinn vs Murray for Seattle Mayor, with Harrell and Steinbrueck as second tier candidates.

Constantine has no serious opposition and will continue to focus on running for Governor in 2020.

[bgwah]

Litzow (41) won't be up again until 2016.

Hill (45) could potentially be vulnerable, but he's been unoffensive and a good match for the Eastside on social issues, so I would expect him to be re-elected.

Tom (48) is definitely vulnerable. His district is actually fairly liberal, and even voted for Inslee by six points.

Republicans will be favored in 26 with Angel running, IMO. They will get this seat in the special later this year.

28 will be a good pick-up opportunity for Democrats, but Carrell died late enough in the year to avoid a special in 2013.

So I would guess that the Senate will go to 26-23 R later this year. Democrats will have to take the 28th and 48th to have a chance of re-taking it in 2014. And of course this is all very pre-mature, there will be specific races that we don't recognize as competitive until the election nears...

[bgwah]

Murray and MGinn to advance to general. A fairly predictable result, IMO.

30.24% Murray
27.15% McGinn
16.26% Steinbrueck
15.48% Harrell

The next Democratic candidate for Governor, Dow Constantine, is dominating the county executive race with 76%.

And in a shocker, decades-long city councilman Don Davidson is in third place in his Bellevue city council race behind two progressives. The margin is small enough he could maybe creep up to second, but Robinson is close to 50%. It's looking like the conservative majority will finally fall. Unfortunately Wallace is in first in his race, leading Kasner 46-42. At least this one will be close.

[bgwah]

Sawant thinks the redevelopment of SLU is a "corporate giveaway," that Seattle needs rent control, that Yesler Terrace's redevelopment is bad, that the ride free area should be brought back, and so on. As a city councilwoman, she would have influence on issues of development and transit. While having a third party member of the city council would be kind of fun from an electoral perspective, she is so wrong on important issues that I would rather see Conlin win.

And Meeker, we are long over-due for a new title.

[bgwah]

McGinn got 27% on election night in both 2009 and 2013.

           2009   2013   Change
LD11   23.55%   31.72%   8.17%
LD32        -         23.09%       -
LD34   25.78%   22.42%   -3.36%
LD36   28.20%   27.53%   -0.67%
LD37   22.94%   29.10%   6.16%
LD43   30.78%   31.24%   0.46%
LD46   24.14%   23.64%   -0.50%
total     26.58%   27.15%   0.57%

Redistricting reduces the usefulness of this comparison. Nevertheless, the pattern is still clear enough - McGinn lost support in North Seattle, but increased it in the SE.