2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please

[Kodak]

The Quinnipiac poll has college educated whites at D+13 and non college whites at R+11.

Nobody tell RINO Tom.

Curious: Is the education gap expanding or shrinking according to this?

I believe exit polls say Clinton narrowly lost college educated whites in 2016, so it's expanded.

That is what the exit polls said, but I remember reading this article that they could have been way off.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/27/upshot/trump-losing-college-educated-whites-he-never-won-them-in-the-first-place.html

See this thread:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=290720.0

According to Reagente's calculations, Non-Hispanic white voters with a degree voted D+0.2 and voters with no degree voted R+34. The exit polls claimed they voted R+4 and R+39, respectively. Either way, there was a roughly 35-point gap between the two groups. According to the Marist poll, the gap has narrowed to 24 points, which is a big improvement from 2016 but still larger than it was in the 2012 exit poll.

[Kodak]

Don't forget there's still a non-zero chance Ron Estes gets primaried by Ron Estes.

[Kodak]

NY-22:Aug. 20-26, 499 likely voters

Anthony Brindisi (D): 46
Claudia Tenney (R, inc): 44

The GCB is R+13. Like I’ve been saying, a generic Republican would be winning easily here, but Claudia Tenney is not a generic Republican. You can see that from the fact that Brindisi is getting twenty-four percent of the Republican vote and is only underwater 31-37 among Republicans in terms of favorability that this is a perfect match-up for Democrats to pick off disaffected Rockefeller Republicans.

Are there really a ton of moderate GOPers in this district?

Upstate NY Republicans are a mix of New England-style moderates, ancestrally Democratic blue-collar workers who voted for Trump, and rural farmers and gun nuts who wish New York City would sink into the ocean. Most of them will happily ticket-split to vote for Cuomo and Schumer. Many of them will do the same here.

[Kodak]

Yeah, if the political winds break in the Dems favour then the Senate is obtainable.  RCP has 9 toss-ups; Dems winning 7/9 would put them at 51 seats.

This senate class is ridiculous by the way:

2000: Dems win 7/9.
2006: Dems win 8/9.
2012: Dems win 8/10.
2018: 9 toss-ups currently.

If that trend of Dems sweeping the Senate Class I seats happens again this year it'd be 4 cycles in a row for Dem blowouts.  (Reps swept 1994)

I was going based on Cook ratings, but yeah. If Democrats gain seats, it's probably going to be the most lopsided Senate class since the 1930s or maybe even since Reconstruction or maybe ever.

1932, 1936, and 1964 had more lopsided results than 2012. The Democrats need to net three seats to beat 1964's all-time record of 28 seats for one party.