2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Technocracy Timmy]

That's separate double digit polls, and then the CNN one showing a 9 point lead. Looks like the public is starting to turn against the GOP itself now. Unfortunately, it's still very early. There is a lot of time for things to change in the GOP's favor (or get worse for them as well).

On the other hand, it also seems likely the Trump and the GOP's overall support will stay anemic for this year's elections in November, which would give Democrats a good chance to make some gains in the VA HoD, hold their statewide offices and make a sweep in NJ.

Most interestingly this is with a good economy (relatively). They shouldn't be at this level of damage this early.

This is what really surprises me. God help them if the business cycle recession is during the 2018 midterms. Although the advantage in that scenario is that the economy will likely be recovering by 2020.

[Technocracy Timmy]

My impression is that we are so polarized now that the economy just doesn't matter as much as it did in e.g. the mid 20th century.  Obama and Clinton didn't get much credit for the recovery in 2014 or 2016, after all.  The late 19th century was a similar environment, in that only the two most severe downturns in a 30 year period (1873 and 1893) actually caused a wave election.  That having been said, it would be unprecedented in US history to get all the way to 2021 without a recession.

You're right on the credit giving, although I think that might be partially due to an uneven recovery (on numerous levels). However, a wave election due to a recession certainly seems possible still. It just might not have the reach it did even as early as 2008, which was enabled in part by some circumstances that are no longer relevant.

What might be up for more debate is exactly how rough the recession would need to be to generate a certain kind of wave. 2008 was pretty bad, after all.

It could be pretty bad given that the underlying symptoms of the Great Recession haven't really been addressed (stagnant wages, very little inflation, private debt, etc.) If this isn't improved on and a recession hits then 2018 will be pretty ugly for the GOP.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Nate Silver,

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Source.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Somebody who can actually take down Rohrabacher in an Orange County district that voted for Clinton.

[Technocracy Timmy]

538 is now out with a generic congressional ballot tracker.

[Technocracy Timmy]

According to this website, Dems would get 54% of votes, but 47% of House members, thanks to gerrymanderring.

https://decisiondeskhq.com/data-dives/ddhq-2018-house-midterm-forecast/

Ehh I think 538's analysis on the issue is more accurate: Dems need to win the PV by about 8 points to take back congress.