OR-CD-05-DEM PRIM

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I might do another more in-depth answer sometime after next Tuesday, but I think Representative Chavez-DeRemer's odds of winning reelection are at least 40%. Don't have any real firsthand on-the-ground knowledge of any part of OR-5 beyond simply driving through on the highways/across touristy areas, and my impression of matches who live in the Clackamas County portion of the district.

I don't think the 2023 elections were a good barometer for this. Leaving my projection unchanged for now.

Largely agree with NOVA Green. I can see this race going either way.

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Early result
Janelle Bynum DEM 3,305
78.9%

Jamie McLeod-Skinner DEM 885
21.1%

Total
4,190

Also, in the open Democratic 3rd district.
Maxine Dexter DEM 20,367
52.5%

Susheela Jayapal DEM 10,082
26.0%

TIL Maxine Dexter was looking for a promotion from State to Federal. Her current state district is pretty obviously in the 2010s and 2020s OR-1.