Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Why The Heck does every and their mother think this will be competitive?! This stuff is all over even main news and headlines sometimes, ridiculous... ok, if Kemp wins the runoff it will be Tilt R-Weak Lean R, but if Cagle wins (he will most likely) It will be Likely R-Safe R.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

BTW, I did not know or care too much about the race, but from what I have heard, I would have voted for Stacey Evans if I could have. Abrams seems ok, and I would unenthusiastically support her in a GE. Probably won't get a sign though.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Why The Heck does every and their mother think this will be competitive?! This stuff is all over even main news and headlines sometimes, ridiculous... ok, if Kemp wins the runoff it will be Tilt R-Weak Lean R, but if Cagle wins (he will most likely) It will be Likely R-Safe R.

Georgia only voted for Trump by 5% and Abrams has blown away expectations so far. She has a real chance, although I think she only does narrowly better than Hillary right now.

I mean, I would vote for Abrams rather easily in a GE, (not in a primary though), but let me just point at the elephant in the room, Georgia is not ready to elect a black woman statewide in a GE, barring some event mostly outside her control ie. Cagle losing the primary, and the GOP nominee turns out to literally be a Kiddy Kuddling Kemp.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I believe that Abrams has previously talked about a 40-90-25 strategy: get black turnout to be 40% of the electorate and win 90% of it, and win 25% of the rest.  (40% x 90%) + (60% x 25%) = 51%.

Umm, if Abrams wants to be in the game, she better get more than just 90% of black voters.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Forget everything if Cagle is the nominee, but since Kemp is looking better and better to grab the GOP nom, I am moving this from likely R---> lean R. Abrams has a narrow but very possible uphill path against Kemp. One biggie is that Kemp is rather poor in the Atlanta area in primary performance, and he also fits the region very poorly. Due to his crazy campaign, the staying of suburbs in our column in elections even since Trump 2016 victory, and a reinforcement of the previous point given by Kemp and his outrageous personality, campaign tactics, and stances, seeing them stay with Abrams on a level similar to Hillary, if not even expanding a little like Northam is not out of the picture. If she can have good turnout here, that is a bonus too. If she can also have weaker turnout in rednecky areas due to lower enthusiasm and satisfaction in the Trump era, as well as siphoning just a couple points or so better from these areas due to her not being Hillary, that puts her in a decent spot. What would then seal the deal would be a higher black turnout and 94-96% of them in her column. If she does this, I believe she will be the winner by an incredibly slim margin on election night.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

When it's all said and done as of today, I think Kemp beats Abrams 51.5-48.5. This is my first prediction, and it may change down the line.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Unrelated to statewide races, but the lunatic GOP primaried state rep Jason Spencer was on Baron Cohen's show, screamed the n-word dozens of times and bared his ass to the cameras.

Oh my...

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Poor Stacy, he planned and worked so hard for this.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I give Lowell a 25-30% of winning tonight, probably done for, but I still think he is still a tad underestimated. I expected Brian to win by around 55-45. Expect Lowell to do well in the Atlanta area and put up fights in the smaller cities, maybe winning a couple hick counties, but otherwise getting braised like a longhorn elsewhere.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Awesome, the time is now!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

We got some results now!

Cagle in the lead

55.1% C
44.9% K

Its time!

I was right that the time is now!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Holy wow this is a train wrecking for Cagle!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Another Stacy bites the dust bigly. Can Abrams reverse the curse?

You know what they say, third Stacey is the lucky charm.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Man even if Cagle won every single vote in Fulton he'd still lose at this point.