MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Completely endorsed! Go team McCaskill!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Her 2012 campaign was a work of genius, so I respect her for that.

I also have to laugh at TN Vol's continuing crusade against her because apparently she's some sort of misandrist lol.

Just another dog whistle for someone who supports equal treatment. McCaskill is one of my favorite senators.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

He can't win the primary.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Austin's a great guy, he called me yesterday... he has a growing fanbase and I legitimately think that he could win the primaries and defeat McCaskill. People always underestimate libertarians in congress, for example Kentucky. Before 2010, the Kentucky senate went to either democrats, or republicans in close calls. Rand won in a landslide and was the nominee easily.

Not impossible in the primaries, but very very tough. He will most probably be up against some big power players with party backing and with state name recognition. I doubt he could win, but I could very well be wrong. Assuming he runs and wins the primaries, I think it would be a tossup vs McCaskill.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

bump..

Let's hope Austin Peterson is the nominee so McCaskill can breeze to a third term that she is not supposed to win.

Not that she is necessarily DOA against Hawley or Wagner.

What do you mean? It doesn't matter who the GOP nominates. McCaskill is going to win reelection by a landslide and win the White House in 2020. The subsequent special election wouldn't be a problem, because the Democratic nominee for that would have McCaskill's blessing. The blessing of McCaskill is all a Democrat needs to win in Missouri, because McCaskill is beloved by all Missourians.

Claire McCaskill 2020!

This... -_-...

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Hawley's throwing away a senate seat, and for what? Protecting Greitens?

It was never "his" to begin with. Yes, it has had its tilt and lean moments in both ways, rn tilt McCaskill, but this seat has been in play the whole time.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

tilt D---> tossup

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Dangit, Clay won.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Dangit, Clay won.

What's wrong with Clay?

I'm still angry about how he treated Cohen over a decade back and does not apologize, I think he is a bigot.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Hawley and McCaskill are both trading some heavy punches on twitter, can't wait for their debate tomorrow, should be very good, go Claire!!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Remington GOP Internals:

Early July 2017
Hawley 50-44

Mid August 2017
Hawley 50-45

Mid October 2017
Hawley 48-45

Early January 2018
Hawley 49-45

Early July 2018
Hawley 48-46

Early August 2018
47-47 tie

these are Republican internals, keep that in mind...

pattern?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Remington GOP Internals:

Early July 2017
Hawley 50-44

Mid August 2017
Hawley 50-45

Mid October 2017
Hawley 48-45

Early January 2018
Hawley 49-45

Early July 2018
Hawley 48-46

Early August 2018
47-47 tie

these are Republican internals, keep that in mind...

pattern?

But muh MO +20 Trump

But muh Claire didnt vote for Gorsch

But muh excellent candidate Hawley

On a more serious note, Hawley really is blowing this race. Not only is his own internals going against him, but based on the primary, which was 53R-47D overall, it seems that Claire will have an easier time than thought.

This race is starting to lose its tossup nature, but IN.....

Bruh, even I think we hold this seat lol and I'm the Balderson by 6 and Moore by 8 guy lol.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Remington GOP Internals:

Early July 2017
Hawley 50-44

Mid August 2017
Hawley 50-45

Mid October 2017
Hawley 48-45

Early January 2018
Hawley 49-45

Early July 2018
Hawley 48-46

Early August 2018
47-47 tie

these are Republican internals, keep that in mind...

pattern?

But muh MO +20 Trump

But muh Claire didnt vote for Gorsch

But muh excellent candidate Hawley

On a more serious note, Hawley really is blowing this race. Not only is his own internals going against him, but based on the primary, which was 53R-47D overall, it seems that Claire will have an easier time than thought.

This race is starting to lose its tossup nature, but IN.....

Bruh, even I think we hold this seat lol and I'm the Balderson by 6 and Moore by 8 guy lol.

heh, yeah.

Im starting to see the only possible seats that will flip from our column being IN, and ND, and those states have no polling so I could be incredibly wrong about that.

I think I migt change my Cramer by 8 prediction because it is starting to sound a bit ridiculous, I'm thinking 3-4 points for Cramer now, but I have no idea about IN. I've heard they have had really draconian polling laws or something like that which is why we really don't have enough data to accurately characterize this race. Rn I would say Braun by a point, but I really think we need more info to really characterize this race well, and also the factor of how involved will Pence get in this race.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

However, I don't think McCaskill carries that main county with Springfield in it again, Greene I believe.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

When it's all said and done, I think McCaskill wins 50-48.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Does Hawley win Republican stronghold Johnson County (which McCaskill won in 2012), which Tony Monetti won in the primary?

Probably narrowly.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Poll of MO State Senate district 30



Also....MO HD distrcits 131 to 136




Link

To compare to 2012:
SD-30: 53-39.5 McCaskill

HD-131: 47.1-45.4 Akin
HD-132: 62.6-29.1 McCaskill
HD-133: 46.6-46 McCaskill
HD-134: 51.1-41.5 McCaskill
HD-135: 56.6-36.1 McCaskill
HD-136: 48.1-45.4 Akin

A bit strange that McCaskill is leading in both of the Akin districts, but behind in HD-132 (where she blew out Akin).

I have no idea what to extrapolate from this besides McCaskill is clearly doing worse than 2012 which is expected. Question is if the drops are small enough for her to eek out.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I'm now back to giving Hawley the narrow edge.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I'm now back to giving Hawley the narrow edge.

Because of one republican internal?

No, because McCaskill is tied and even when ahead she is no where near 50. I believe the undecideds will break for Hawley, and pull him to win like 49.25-49.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

She is a no on Kavanaugh. Bye Claire, nice having you around for a while, you had a good run, tossup—-> Lean R.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Wow, Claire wont vote for a man whos having a sexual assault charge, how terrible. Its not like polling has shown that voting for Kavenaugh would be worse for her than voting for him. Yeah, this is a likely R race now, Bagel is right, as always. /s

I said Lean R and you know it.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Wow, Claire wont vote for a man whos having a sexual assault charge, how terrible. Its not like polling has shown that voting for Kavenaugh would be worse for her than voting for him. Yeah, this is a likely R race now, Bagel is right, as always. /s

I said Lean R and you know it.

Nah, its definitely likely R, Bagel, for once you may be incorrect. You see, even though Claire has lead in polling, fundraising, and has the advantage, the court seat that Democrats care more about than Republicans will juice up turnout for Rs, causing Claire to lose, cause she didnt win that one Conservative, Trump supporting Republican who was "undecided". We should just swear in Hawley now, saves the trouble of counting votes. /s

You know I'm not thinking that, I am now thinking Hawley wins by 2-3 points, which is a perfectly reasonable prediction.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I don't think the James O'Keefe stuff is as potent for McCaskill because she's already running as a raging liberal (at least comparatively by MO standards), but Bredesen was running as a really a center to center-right looking candidate. Shock impact is 0, maybe turns a couple votes away, but unlike the Bredesen thing, this is not blowing any cover or anything, Claire is not running on an inauthentic belief system, and everyone knows that.

Despite this, I still expect Hawley to win, albeit not from this, but I think the Kavanaugh vote has given him the edge. I had it at pure tossup before the vote, and kept shifting it from tilt R and tilt D, and actually was about to switch it back to tilt D because I was looking up her name and seeing good results for her from critical KC areas at the time, but then the next article I clicked on had her as a no on Kavanaugh. Since then, I have her race at lean R, Hawley 50-47.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I don’t give a crap about a missouri state auditor, worst consolation prize ever if McCaskill loses.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Wow LMAO Emanuel Cleaver outran McCaskill in the three red rural counties that are completely within his district.

Lafayette County

62-34 (-28) McCaskill loss

60-37 (-23) Cleaver loss

Ray County

58-37 (-21) McCaskill loss

56-40 (-16) Cleaver loss

Saline County

58-37 (-21) McCaskill loss

56-41 (-15) Cleaver loss