WV-SEN 2018: Haunted Manchin (user search)
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  WV-SEN 2018: Haunted Manchin (search mode)
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Author Topic: WV-SEN 2018: Haunted Manchin  (Read 143098 times)
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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Posts: 13,369
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Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #50 on: May 06, 2018, 05:40:24 PM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on May 06, 2018, 04:45:59 PM
Be careful what you wish for.  I'm not at all convinced Roy Moore would have lost if it was the standard Nov. 2018 election date and there were 5 or 10 other contested races on the ballot to drive GOP turnout.  And Trump did even better in WV than in AL.   Blankenship is an awful candidate, no doubt, but is he as bad as Roy Moore?

Ah, another National PVI lover. Alabama is inelastic, WV is super elastic, BIG difference.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #51 on: May 06, 2018, 08:03:17 PM »
Quote from: Pollster on May 06, 2018, 07:33:42 PM
Who would win if it ends up being Swearengin vs. Blankenship?

Blankenship by teens.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #52 on: May 06, 2018, 08:12:55 PM »
Quote from: The Unbearable Invicibility of Hillary Clinton on May 06, 2018, 07:44:39 PM
An update of early voting totals.  Really nothing has changed in the basic pattern. 51-33-15 the partisan breakdown.  Independents can request a ballot for either party or just vote on nonpartisan issues if they so choose.  

https://gallery.mailchimp.com/8f557e1c6ac0b5aa70dfd4c00/files/ec6249aa-ab35-4574-9b28-4e47f3dded09/P18_EV_Abs_050618.pdf

Looks like just slightly over 25% of the registered GOP ballots are coming from WV 3rd when it compromises over 32% of the state's population, hopefully this trend holds down and dooms Jenkins.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #53 on: May 06, 2018, 08:50:27 PM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on May 06, 2018, 08:42:28 PM
Quote from: Bagel23 on May 06, 2018, 08:12:55 PM
Quote from: The Unbearable Invicibility of Hillary Clinton on May 06, 2018, 07:44:39 PM
An update of early voting totals.  Really nothing has changed in the basic pattern. 51-33-15 the partisan breakdown.  Independents can request a ballot for either party or just vote on nonpartisan issues if they so choose.  

https://gallery.mailchimp.com/8f557e1c6ac0b5aa70dfd4c00/files/ec6249aa-ab35-4574-9b28-4e47f3dded09/P18_EV_Abs_050618.pdf

Looks like just slightly over 25% of the registered GOP ballots are coming from WV 3rd when it compromises over 32% of the state's population, hopefully this trend holds down and dooms Jenkins.

What's the percentage of all statewide registered R's in WV-03, though?  That's the relevant comparison here.  It has to be under 1/3rd given how many legacy Dems there are in those counties.

Also, apparently registered Indies can vote in the GOP primary.  I would be surprised if Indies voting GOP ballots don't break substantially for Blankenship.

IDK, but it is sort of low. Not too important when it is just GOP ballots counting though for the primary, independents will be a wild card though.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #54 on: May 06, 2018, 09:25:16 PM »
Quote from: The Unbearable Invicibility of Hillary Clinton on May 06, 2018, 09:21:17 PM
Quote from: Skill and Chance on May 06, 2018, 08:42:28 PM
Quote from: Bagel23 on May 06, 2018, 08:12:55 PM
Quote from: The Unbearable Invicibility of Hillary Clinton on May 06, 2018, 07:44:39 PM
An update of early voting totals.  Really nothing has changed in the basic pattern. 51-33-15 the partisan breakdown.  Independents can request a ballot for either party or just vote on nonpartisan issues if they so choose.  

https://gallery.mailchimp.com/8f557e1c6ac0b5aa70dfd4c00/files/ec6249aa-ab35-4574-9b28-4e47f3dded09/P18_EV_Abs_050618.pdf

Looks like just slightly over 25% of the registered GOP ballots are coming from WV 3rd when it compromises over 32% of the state's population, hopefully this trend holds down and dooms Jenkins.

What's the percentage of all statewide registered R's in WV-03, though?  That's the relevant comparison here.  It has to be under 1/3rd given how many legacy Dems there are in those counties.

Also, apparently registered Indies can vote in the GOP primary.  I would be surprised if Indies voting GOP ballots don't break substantially for Blankenship.

The overall percentage is relevant because it does mean that Jenkins has a weak base to begin with and they aren't turning out in numbers to compensate for that.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
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Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #55 on: May 07, 2018, 12:00:53 PM »
Quote from: Mondale on May 07, 2018, 11:07:36 AM
Rofl



LOL!
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #56 on: May 07, 2018, 12:38:26 PM »
I have this strange feeling that I can't shake that while heavily losing, Paula Jean will do much better than expect, like low to mid 30s... I think Manchin might get O'Rourke'd in the primary, probably not that drastic, but I can't shake the feeling of a Swearingen overperformance.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #57 on: May 08, 2018, 10:32:00 PM »
Can we change the darn thread title now?
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
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Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #58 on: May 08, 2018, 11:14:09 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on May 08, 2018, 10:55:18 PM


That's generally what happens when a state gets increasingly red.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #59 on: May 09, 2018, 01:14:44 AM »
Great primary map made by Atlas' Miles.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #60 on: May 09, 2018, 01:51:53 AM »
Quote from: warandwar on May 09, 2018, 01:30:21 AM
Quote from: marty on May 08, 2018, 11:39:24 PM


He's from there, y'know...

Ya, it's easily explainable. Almost all those Mahetan types are still registered D's, and those Mingo people who voted in the GOP primary yesterday are comprised of the ones who own the mines, a few stray idiots, and Daddy Don's friends and family. I mean we are literally talking a few hundred votes people.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #61 on: May 14, 2018, 09:41:52 PM »
Quote from: Progressive Pessimist on May 14, 2018, 07:16:09 PM
Don Blankenship, the gift that keeps on giving! His presence is no longer a guilty pleasure for me since he will never be senator.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #62 on: May 14, 2018, 09:50:21 PM »
Big Don is finally doing something good with his life!
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #63 on: May 21, 2018, 08:10:15 AM »
DADDY DON, OH YEAH!
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #64 on: May 21, 2018, 08:11:14 AM »
He's in to save Manchin.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #65 on: May 21, 2018, 09:32:39 AM »
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #66 on: June 01, 2018, 11:27:41 PM »
Looks like Manchin and Ojeda are hosting two events together, this makes me happy!

https://www.eventbrite.com/e/an-evening-with-richard-ojeda-tickets-46090640346

https://www.eventbrite.com/e/victory-at-tamarack-with-richard-ojeda-tickets-46090659403?aff=erelpanelorg
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #67 on: June 06, 2018, 06:29:59 PM »
Looks like Manchin really wants to get reelected.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/06/06/manchin-says-regrets-clinton-support-could-back-trump-in-2020.html

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/06/06/manchin-trump-west-virginia-midterms-626437

http://theweek.com/speedreads/777350/democrat-joe-manchin-matteroffactly-describes-manbump-hugs-trump
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #68 on: June 06, 2018, 06:36:06 PM »

Say what you want, but he is the last of a species, so he knows a thing or two about how to handle this kind of stuff right.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #69 on: June 06, 2018, 06:44:36 PM »

I mean what is he supposed to say; people, put down that sign or else I won't take a picture with you?
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #70 on: June 06, 2018, 07:58:59 PM »
Quote from: UWS on June 06, 2018, 06:49:41 PM

And do we know when we're going to know whether or not Blankenship will be able to get to the ballot, which I hope he will fail to do?

I honestly have no clue, sorry.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #71 on: June 16, 2018, 04:32:47 PM »
« Edited: June 16, 2018, 04:38:52 PM by Bagel23 »
Manchin now really wants to win reelection.

LMAO



http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/392350-manchin-touts-support-for-trump-border-wall-in-new-ad

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oYdAk2XEifA
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #72 on: June 18, 2018, 04:16:46 AM »
Please tell me this won't be too damaging.

http://freebeacon.com/politics/joe-manchin-used-taxpayer-funds-travel-l-fundraiser/
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #73 on: June 20, 2018, 01:25:13 PM »
Quote from: ON Progressive on June 20, 2018, 11:51:02 AM


🔥🔥🔥🔥



Manchin a good ol' WV boy, and he will continue to knock the crap out of carpetbagger Morrisey!
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #74 on: June 20, 2018, 01:56:52 PM »
Also, please join me in wishing both Gayle Manchin and the state of West Virginia a happy birthday!
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