CPRM, Pt 3: LA 11/6

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

🚨🚨🚨Bagel PROJECTION:🚨🚨🚨

U.S. Senate Race In Florida

Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Rick Scott✓
0            0
Rocky De La Fuente
0            0
0 votes, 0% reporting

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Wtf is happening?!?!!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Oh sh!t, if Gillum wins the primary, Imma have to move this from tilt D to lean R.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I feel a little better about Nelson now. I have always thought he would win, and I still stand by it.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Scott has been a good governor and will be a good senator so go Scott

BOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

🚨🚨🚨Bagel PROJECTION:🚨🚨🚨

U.S. Senate Race In Arizona

Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Kyrsten Sinema✓
0            0
Deedra Abboud
0            0
0 votes, 0% reporting

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Have the exit polls for AZ been released yet

No exit polls, only EV dump to be published.

Ok Thanks

You could always try poking around County websites to see if they publish come data prior to the State websites or MSM outlets that cover elections, or we just wait impatiently....

Probably not much difference either way....

Feel free to take a bathroom break.

AZ law doesn't allow results (including EV's) to be released until at least  1 hour after polls close.

Already took a bathroom break, smoke break, cracked another brew.... next step pulling up a few of Maricopa County Precinct spreadsheets I have floating around.... I think I have Pima out there somewhere as well, but it might be on a different PC/Laptop/External Drive....

Drinking and smoking on the same night? I'm not gonna judge, but I will say that I think all of us want you to be around here for a long time.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Nelson did not appear on the ballot so using gubernatorial numbers for my senate turnout map. Republicans won 52%-48%.

Trolling.

I hope people like you stay delusional, decide it is not necessary to turn out to vote in November because of that, and then get a rude awakening afterwards.

More trolling.

Uh, you do realize this map shows Dems winning in 4 Trump states, right? (MI, WI, PA, WV)

He knows, he's a troll, he wants your attention.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

ROFL ARPAIO IS SURGING

Is this real?

No, it's not, it's illegal for any source to release Arizona results until 11 ET (in 16 minutes).

Yeah NYT only had this up for like a minute.

No way, I gotta call bs on that, Doug Jones is more likely to win Wyoming in a GE than that happening.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Reminder of 2014 AZ primary-

GOP: 1.4 Million
Dem: 293K

I thought it was just over half a million for the GOP.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Will McSally win her CD in the senate GE? I say she will very narrowly.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Will McSally win her CD in the senate GE? I say she will very narrowly.

I would think so, but her problem will be the larger phoenix metro.

Exactly my thoughts, we did a great job picking an A lister from Maricopa, McSally is good as a candidate too, but I think her not being from Maricopa is a minus for the GOP.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

mwahahahahahahaha! GOODBYE LOW-ENERGY KELLI WARD AND LOW-LIFE LOSER JOE ARPAIO!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

McSally has to deal with a divided base, Sinema doesn't with her 82% of the vote so far. It's clear who has the upper hand in this battle entering the GE.

More like, the primary has made McSally look moderate. I thought Sinema will win, but I'm not confident about it anymore.

Are you kidding me? She walked BACK on her support of DACA to match Ward and Arpaio. In what way did the primary make her look "moderate"? On the other hand, Sinema didn't have to pander to either the left or the right.

The media says Barbara Comstock is a "moderate" despite her voting with Trump 98% of the time. Objective arguments aren't gonna win you brownie points with them, much less the stupid "swing voters."

Anyway, Sinema has been pandering hard to the right. That's basically been her entire campaign strategy so far.

*McSally

If you truly meant Sinema and it wasn't a slip, I must say the quality of your posts have really fallen this month.

Both Sinema and McSally have been pandering hard to the right. Sinema's pandering is even more shameless considering she used to be a Prada socialist. Take off the pom poms for a second and look at the facts. She joined the Blue Dogs, has one of the most conservative voting records of any House Democrat, has refused to criticize Trump, has said she wouldn't vote for Schumer as majority leader, and has spent her entire campaign posturing as a moderate hero. This article is a good summary:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/02/krysten-sinema-democrats-senate-chuck-schumer-687120

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LOL at the bolded. Utterly spineless and shameless. Not to mention weak, pathetic, and low energy. And yes, she's running to the right of Joe Manchin, Heidi Heitkamp, Joe Donnelly, etc.

People on Atlas have been easing up and warming up to Joe Manchin over the past few months. I don't know why, but I like it.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Looks like the Democrats flipped a seat tonight-

https://twitter.com/FlaDems/status/1034587718163021825

OSCEOLA JOE!!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Pretty sure a large percentage of the unaffiliated voters are Puerto Ricans, who can't vote in the primaries but lean heavily dem in the General. 

....although news stories are reporting that Scott has worked this community since Hurricane Maria while Nelson hasn't done as much.

Ok? I mean, it probably will make an insignificant difference, but I guess he can tighten the margin by 2 points with that group.

2 points in such a tight race like this could make all the difference.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Pretty sure a large percentage of the unaffiliated voters are Puerto Ricans, who can't vote in the primaries but lean heavily dem in the General. 

....although news stories are reporting that Scott has worked this community since Hurricane Maria while Nelson hasn't done as much.

Ok? I mean, it probably will make an insignificant difference, but I guess he can tighten the margin by 2 points with that group.

2 points in such a tight race like this could make all the difference.

2 points among a group that numbers 300,000 is a swing of 6000 voters. Its not going to be that close.

I think this might be the closest race for the senate in 2018. I could see Nelson barely brushing through by a few thousand votes.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Pretty sure a large percentage of the unaffiliated voters are Puerto Ricans, who can't vote in the primaries but lean heavily dem in the General. 

....although news stories are reporting that Scott has worked this community since Hurricane Maria while Nelson hasn't done as much.

Ok? I mean, it probably will make an insignificant difference, but I guess he can tighten the margin by 2 points with that group.

2 points in such a tight race like this could make all the difference.

2 points among a group that numbers 300,000 is a swing of 6000 voters. Its not going to be that close.

I think this might be the closest race for the senate in 2018. I could see Nelson barely brushing through by a few thousand votes.

then you have never seen an FL race. There is no reason for it to be that close.

Ok then, what's your guess?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Let’s go Steve and Charlie!!!!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ayanna!! She got the Boston Globe's endorsement like two weeks ago.

She probably gonna lose, but I don’t care about this race and won’t really mind if Capuano gets thrown out, both of them are like the same thing.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Let's get this show on the road!!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

WOAH!!!! It's VERY VERY early, but Neal's challenger is putting up a good showing.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Pressley likely wins, with these results.

https://twitter.com/BillForry/status/1037133629321879553

https://twitter.com/BillForry/status/1037133318863683584

https://twitter.com/JEThomas478/status/1037131923024474112

Oh my.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I don't give a crap if Ayanna throws Capuano out, but I'm getting a bit scared for Lynch, cause I really do care about that race.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Looks like Lynch probably survives, phew.