2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1150957105777532928?s=19

Low numbers, but Phillips is one of those self-funders with insane ability to dump personal wealth into the seat. So I guess he is kinda ignoring this side of the battle for now.

What battle? Even Keith Ellison won this seat. Phillips is fine.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Van Drew waking up and picking his game up, good sign.

https://twitter.com/BenJKest/status/1150871659810893824

He has too. He only won narrowly against a racist anti semite. He's probably the most vulnerable New Jersey Democrat after Andrew Kim.

Think I found a solution

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1151508780116598789

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1150957105777532928?s=19

Low numbers, but Phillips is one of those self-funders with insane ability to dump personal wealth into the seat. So I guess he is kinda ignoring this side of the battle for now.

Also his seat is moving leftward at the speed of light.

Not to mention that he's an amazing campaigner. He had the most memorable ad from the midterm elections, imo.

I am biased toward Manchin's gun ad, but yeah bigfoot ad was up there.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

CA-21: Former Rep. David Valadao (R) has filed to run against Rep. TJ Cox (D)

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1151701397760462850

Bring it on again Goncalves.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Isn’t Valadao in debt up to his eye balls? I’m surprised he didn’t just cash out as a lobbyist or something. Seems like a poor decision

Yeah he was one of the poorest members of congress and even his farm was being repo’d iirc.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Isn’t Valadao in debt up to his eye balls? I’m surprised he didn’t just cash out as a lobbyist or something. Seems like a poor decision

Yeah he was one of the poorest members of congress and even his farm was being repo’d iirc.

House rules prohibited himself from being involved with the daily operations of the farm, so this probably isnt on him. It was managed by his brothers.

Ok well whoever’s fault it was, he’s not in good financial shape iirc. Also Valadao is not winning this back in 2020, and Salas is probably slapping himself silly for not running in 2018, he would have won by 5-6 points.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Big recruitment news across the board today...

https://twitter.com/wendydavis/status/1153280783383191552?

Carpetbagger, will lose.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/VApoliticalmeme/status/1153329471564464128

Could be nothing, could be something

Democrats be like Plz  be Wexton so the GOP can waste another 10 million.

Speaking of Wexton, the GOP got a decent candidate up for the fight with Wexton. Too bad this seat is both moving to the left at the speed of light, and guaranteed to lose red areas like Fredrick and Warren in 2020 redistricting (Fair redistricting creates a third NOVA Dem seat in Fairfax+Loudoun, Dem Redistricting might get wirder but still ends up with a 60/40 clinton seat at minimun).

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1153291575558103042

So if the GOP wants to sink another 10 mil, its on them.

Please, he will lose handily.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Same she-devil trying to take the night away from Donna smh

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1156940184216383490

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Drew Savicki is an idiot. Don't quote him here.

Drew Savicki is daddy of election twitter, jmilescoleman is overrated, stop.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Drew Savicki is an idiot. Don't quote him here.

Drew Savicki is daddy of election twitter, jmilescoleman is overrated, stop.

Jmilescoleman is an actually professional with much deeper analysis.

Idc about analysis, I like Drew's maps more.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/HurdOnTheHill/status/1157078754679828480?s=19

Congratulations to Representative Gina Ortiz Jones!

Doubt that she will be able to win the 2020 primary.

Who’s her competition? I thought she was the presumptive nominee at this point.

Pete Gallego might jump in, from what I’ve been reading.

GOD NO, the one guy who would blow it!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Likely D, close to Safe.

FL 27 even voted for Patrick Murphy over Marco Rubio LMAO, this seat is not flipping next year ok.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I totally missed this, but it appears that Cook Political Report moved PA-10 to Tossup from Lean R:

https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings/

I think this might be a touch generous this early. DePasquale is certainly a top recruit, but the district still has a Republican lean that could help Perry.

Agreed DePasquale is a dumb@ss for not running in 2018, he would have narrowly won then.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Demaio raised 100k in 2 hours, 250k in 24 hours for congressional bid. The website crashed for several minutes because it had so much traffic.

https://timesofsandiego.com/politics/2019/08/06/demaio-reports-raising-250000-in-first-24-hours-as-congressional-candidate/

Likely D

He's primarying the law-breaking nincompoop that is Duncan hunter. A primary win would be both an improvement for the CA congressional delegation, as strange as that seems, and probably pushes what should be a safe R seat back closer to that leaning. Also he is preferable to Issa, who is also looking at the potential to replace Hunter.

Oh I thought he was running in CA-52 like he did in 2014.

If he was it would be safe D. As if a Republican would ever beat a scandal free Democratic incumbent in a Clinton +22 district, lol.

DeMaio ran for CA-52 in 2014 and lost by 3%, fwiw.

2014 is so irrelevant. Peters won by 13 in 2016 and 28 in 2018 and the seat is only getting bluer.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

CA-50: Former CA-49 Rep. Darrell Issa (R) is forming an exploratory committee-

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1166899957401415680

I dislike carpetbagging politicians. Issa retired because he could not win reelection in his old district, and now he's thinking about shifting to a safer, less competitive seat. And while Issa would be an "improvement" over the corrupt and scandal-plagued Hunter, that's not saying much.

There's also the popular (in conservative circles) DeMaio who would be an improvement of both these losers. It's a shame that only Najjar is running currently for the Dems, because so many high profile R's would raise the possibility of a DvD lockout - and I'm normally the guy who pushs back on the top two lockout scenarios in non-safe seats.

Also Issa Represented 'some' of the present CA-50 under the 2000 map, so it's a little less heinous, even if his motives are poisonous.

I agree about Najjar, who is not the best Democratic candidate for this seat, even though he managed to lose to Hunter by "only" 8% last year. More Democrats running would shut off the possibility of either Hunter or Issa prevailing. But if that doesn't happen, then I would hope that DeMaio would be able to earn enough support to at least get into the top two, preferably against Hunter.

The House election in CA-50 was won by Hunter 51.7%-48.3%, or a margin of 3.4%.

Oh, my mistake. I was thinking of the early results in the first weeks after the election. This is even narrower than I had believed. Well, it's goes to show that a more formidable Democratic candidate than Naijar may have beaten Hunter.

I agree, I think Butner would have edged out.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Why is the GOP obsessed with winning Texas 7th?

Because a lot of Republican stategists are completely oblivious to reality. The NRSC and NRCC are two of the greatest Democratic assets.

Yeah! it is sooo crazy to think a Clinton +1 plurality district is remotely competitive. Obvious Safe D. Safer than NY14 because the trends are so fast obviously.

*When Republicans think some muah military token guy named Wesley I forgot the rest is part of the path back to a house majority in the current TX 7 in 2020 barring some massive circumstance*

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Republicans are seriously going to attempt to take back seats like CA-25, CA-45 and CA-49.

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1173705655850393601?s=20

Good, only makes Queen Nancy’s job easier

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newsweek.com/speaker-nancy-pelosi-says-she-intends-win-2020-election-democrats-november-1397381%3famp=1

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1177286547223252992

HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!

Live look at Allred



Bring it baby! I'd love Colin to smack ur @$$ even harder this time. Might even right a letter goading the little b1tch to rematch.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

CA-03: John Garamendi has a new potential GE opponent in Sean Feucht, a millennial gospel singer and worship leader:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/california-congress-worship-leader-sean-feucht

Well, he will get Feucht by Garamendi, Safe D.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1179196345141383168?s=20

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1177286547223252992

HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!

Live look at Allred



Bring it baby! I'd love Colin to smack ur @$$ even harder this time. Might even right a letter goading the little b1tch to rematch.

No? Don't want to fight us again in the 32nd like a man? XD

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Too lazy to find the MT-SEN thread right now (and there are many lol), so I’ll just post this here.

Two more Democrats have entered the Senate race:

Cora Neumann of Bozeman announced her candidacy Tuesday morning in a video. [...]

Nuemann says she’s focused on affordable and accessible health care, meaning protecting the Affordable Care Act. She says her campaign priorities also include protecting public lands, removing corporate special interests from politics and job creation. [...]

Another Bozemanite, Michael Knoles, has also filed paperwork to run for the U.S. Senate. But he has not yet publicly announced his campaign.

The other Democrats in the race include Helena Mayor Wilmot Collins and John Mues, a Navy veteran and engineer from Loma.

https://www.mtpr.org/post/new-candidates-enter-montanas-2020-us-senate-race

I don’t know who these people are, and it’s safe to say that they pose no real threat to Collins and Mues.

Huh, Mues is from Tester's county. Possible since Bullock is out, Maybe Tester knows Mues? And has politically adopted him to run? hmm

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1181551082222374913?s=19

Queen!