$1.5 Trillion GOP Tax Cut Thread

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

I look forward to seeing the same people (not here, just generally) advocating for eliminating SALT complain about a future Dem trifecta moving or closing military bases and other federal funds in Red states into Blue states to retaliate for elimination of SALT. And to really "salt" the wound, they should make SALT a credit.

This is precisely why I'm against this plan: Red staters sticking it to Blue staters in such an obvious way is just going to lead to escalation, which is awful for the economy. In isolation, many of the individual side changes are reasonable (collapsing brackets, simplifying, etc), but instead of an equally distributed pain, the pay-fors are falling disproportionately on Dem-leaning constituencies, while the majority of benefits accrue to those with few to no deductions (who benefit from the increased standard deduction) and those at the tippy top, for whom the elimination of the estate tax, AMT, and personal exemptions will disproportionately benefit. The tax code becoming yet another political football is horrible public policy and I would be equally appalled if Dems were making the first move like this.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Why can't they just do something smart like:

- Actually lower the tax rate and keep all deductions for those making $250,000 or less.
- Lower corporate tax rates to get them in line with the rest of the world but then close the loopholes so corporations actually have to pay the 20-25% tax rate.
- Eliminate the estate tax for the small farmers that can possibly get hit while raising it on wealthy estates.
-Jacking up taxes 20-30% for the top 1% and punishing hiding money in offshore accounts.

Everyone wins!

Donors don't get their ROI.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Biggest hurdle here will be the reconciliation process and the vote on the reconciled Senate-House plan.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Rubio and lee want corp cut to 22% not 20% in order to pay for more generous child credits

Should go the opposite way and reduce the corporate rate lower and axe more child credits.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

I'm being factual

I dislike the deficit side of the bill but to claim it raises taxes on the middle class is insanity

It raises taxes on those making less than 250k in under 10% of cases in the year following passage of the bill, then raises taxes on something like half of those under 250k in the mid-2020s, assuming certain individual side changes aren't extended

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

I cannot wait for Republicans to sh**t themselves again, wait for a Democratic President to come in, then make massive midterm gains off blaming the Democrat for their own incompetence. It's the cycle of life.

Yeah, it wouldn't surprise me if the 2022 midterms under a D are another shellacking, to the point that Cortez-Masto, Bennet, Hassan, and Duckworth all go down.

Tammy won't lose. She's popular here.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

DYNAMIC SCORE RELEASED: Even assuming large amounts of economic growth, bill still raises deficit by $1,006,700,000,000.  https://www.jct.gov/publications.html?func=download&id=5045&chk=5045&no_html=1

That can easily be made up in cuts in wasteful defense spending.

Yeah, cutting $1tn from the Pentagon is so easy.

its 1 trillion over 10 years meaning 100 billion a year.


So say you cut the projected defense spending by 100 billion next year you will make up for the deficit (as that means the projected defense spending each year for the next decade will be 100 billion dollars less each year than it is now).

You're voting for the wrong party if you think Republicans will ever do this.

Realistically, neither party will tackle defense bloat, but Republicans are much less likely to do so than Democrats, as the latter's voting base isn't as dependant upon defense spending.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Florker gonna cave.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/936374446549585920
@sahilkapur
Cornyn says Corker want MORE than $350 billion in higher taxes as "he's latched on to the" JCT score showing $1 trillion in red ink after growth.



Good luck...

Republican solution: negative SALT deduction. Taxpayers who pay more SALT now also get the privilege of their federal taxes increasing by the same amount of SALT paid.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

This is perhaps a stupid question, but what's the parliamentarian's logic behind nixing the trigger provision? Seems like it's pretty closely related to revenue items, no?

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

This is perhaps a stupid question, but what's the parliamentarian's logic behind nixing the trigger provision? Seems like it's pretty closely related to revenue items, no?

I'm trying to figure that out myself

Didn't find anything on the "why" (which is still fascinating to me tbh), but apparently they're looking at a sunset of some of the corporate taxes, which would really blunt any economic benefit.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Official roll call for Cardin motion to recommit is published. Defections were Booker, Gillibrand, Merkley, Sanders, and Warren. Unclear why they defected. : https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=115&session=1&vote=00292

Show vote? This bill is so bad it shouldn't even go back to committee?

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Well it appears Democrats are done offering those stupid motions to recommit. Only took 8 attempts.

Please offer Rubio-Lee.
Please offer Rubio-Lee.
Please offer Rubio-Lee.
Please offer Rubio-Lee.
Please offer Rubio-Lee.
Please offer Rubio-Lee.

Make them vote against it! And while you're at it, try reintroducing education + healthcare deductions and force them to vote it down too!

Ew. Don't offer Rubio-Lee. It's horrible policy.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Also, what do we know for sure is in the bill?

By McCaskill tweet, we know that


1685 (deduction only for religous private schools and not secular ones??)

Anything else we know for sure?

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Now the Senate bill has the AMT coming back.  But raises the AMT exemption from married/singled $86,200/$55,400 to  $109,400/$70,600.  This pretty much moves the threshold for AMT hitting from AGI of around $180K to around $300K.  The medical deduction threshold made 7.5% as opposed to 10% of AGI for 2 years.  This threshold was a lot lower but was made 10% under the Obamacare law.

This is actually fairly good policy.