Predict delegate totals

[Stranger in a strange land]

Santorum is gaining momentum and will probably win the popular vote, though delegate allocation is heavily stacked in Romney's favor. If this thing looks like it's going all the way to the convention, it becomes unlikely that Newt will drop out. Therefore, it will probably end up something like:

Romney: 45%
Santorum: 37%
Paul: 11%
Gingrich: 7%

If this happens, the result of a brokered convention will probably be somewhat anti-climactic: the convention will be deadlocked on the first ballot, Romney and Santorum will make a deal, and the convention will overwhelmingly vote for a Romney/Santorum ticket on the 2nd ballot.

[Stranger in a strange land]

If this happens, the result of a brokered convention will probably be somewhat anti-climactic: the convention will be deadlocked on the first ballot, Romney and Santorum will make a deal, and the convention will overwhelmingly vote for a Romney/Santorum ticket on the 2nd ballot.

Santorum won't throw in the towel and settle for the #2 spot unless he's convinced that Romney's going to win anyway.

even if Romney loses, Santorum would still be setting himself up as the front-runner for 2016, when the Republican candidate, whoever he is, is likely to be in a much stronger position. He might even prefer for Romney to lose so he can run again in 2016 rather than in 2020, and besides the record for vice presidents getting elected to the presidency hasn't been all that impressive in recent times.