Obama and the white working class.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Obama is black (well, half-black actually, but that's a topic for another time), and a lot of people won't vote for him because of that. On the other hand, a lot of people will vote for him because of that: many blacks think things will get better if they vote for Obama, some want to make history by voting for the first black president, and some - wrongly in my view - see voting for Obama as a way to atone for past racial sins.

People on this forum and elsewhere predict there will be a massive backlash against Obama among white working class voters. He clearly has problems with them, but somehow I don't think he'll do much worse than Kerry did. I don't think a French-speaking, Massachusetts liberal married to a foreign millionaire is a much better candidate for this demographic than Obama is.



and who could forget this:



or this *shudders*:




Now I know a bunch of you are going to tell me anecdotal stories about your uncle in Akron or your grandpa in Pittsburgh who voted and campaigned for Gore and Kerry but won't even consider voting for Obama because they think he's a Black Muslim Communist. Such people clearly do exist. But they'll be at least somewhat offset by swing voters voting democratic due to the economy, because they're sick of Bush, or because they think it's time for change.
 
Keep in mind that Obama doesn't have to actually win the White working class: he just has to not get blown out among them. The last democrat to win them was LBJ, and before him it was probably FDR.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Sorry but a lot of these white working class voters do have some serious racial "concerns" with Obama. There are the Muslim rumors, Rev. Wright, his comments about religion/guns, etc.

these same voters had concerns with Kerry speaking French, having been educated at a French boarding school, having a wife who looked and acted like a space alien, and flip-flopping.

Kerry was at least part of the establishment and knew how to kiss their ass to get them to deliver these votes. Obama has really risked that in places like Philadelphia.

you might disagree with me, but I think pandering can actually do more harm than good. An example of this was Kerry's disastrous duck-hunting trip, illustrated above. Say what you will about Obama, but he doesn't pretend to be somebody he's not.

[Stranger in a strange land]

these same voters had concerns with Kerry speaking French, having been educated at a French boarding school, having a wife who looked and acted like a space alien, and flip-flopping.

I'm sorry but that's not as controversial as anything I mentioned.

Kerry also came across as a snob. You may argue that Obama does too, but that feeling isn't to anywhere near the same degree. He wins the "who I'd like to have a beer contest" vs McCain. Kerry lost it badly with Bush.

Also in 2004, the economy was reasonably good. When the economy is good, people feel more free to vote on things like cultural issues and who they'd like to have a beer with.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Being a snob or having a funny wife doesn't compare to attending a racist, America hating pastor's church for 20 years, actually saying that the working class clings to religion and guns, and having a Kenyan father, being named Barack Hussein Obama, and being a rumored Muslim.

Every politician says something stupid in the course of a two year campaign. Every public figure has questionable associations. John Kerry's involvement in Vietnam Veterans Against the War, where he accused US Forces of rape and cold-blooded murder and compared them to Genghis Khan's forces, turned off a lot of people to him and proved very damaging to his campaign, and made more people believe the swiftboaters' charges against him.

and it wasn't just that Kerry was a snob: it was that he tried to look like he wasn't a snob, which made him look like even more of a snob. Witness: the hunting episode.

[Stranger in a strange land]

looks like I was right about whites in the states that mattered. I was wrong about Appalachia and the Deep South, but Obama didn't need them as it turned out, and he never had a chance of winning LA, MS, TN, or AL, and only a very, very weak chance of winning WV.

The Muslim rumor failed and probably backfired. Obama's race didn't turn hurt him nearly as much as many thought it would for two reasons. First, he was able to use his "difference" to his advantage. Change vs more of the same. Nothing says change like a young black guy. Secondly, and far more importantly, he ran on the economy and specifically avoided running on black issues. How many times did you hear him mention police brutality or affirmative action?

[Stranger in a strange land]

looks like I was right about whites in the states that mattered. I was wrong about Appalachia and the Deep South, but Obama didn't need them as it turned out, and he never had a chance of winning LA, MS, TN, or AL, and only a very, very weak chance of winning WV.

The Muslim rumor failed and probably backfired. Obama's race didn't turn hurt him nearly as much as many thought it would for two reasons. First, he was able to use his "difference" to his advantage. Change vs more of the same. Nothing says change like a young black guy. Secondly, and far more importantly, he ran on the economy and specifically avoided running on black issues. How many times did you hear him mention police brutality or affirmative action?

The financial crisis enabled him to get over the issue of race.

This is a pretty standard excuse being used now, but is anyone else kind of skeptical? Anyone else notice that it appears the shift after that happened in very affluent normally Republican voting areas, and supposedly racist working class Democratic areas were always with him?

It's easy to use this as an excuse as to why Obama won Pennsylvania, but McCain still hadn't led in a poll there for almost 5 months when it happened.

There are several explanations for this:
1. people in relatively affluent areas are the ones who actually have investments, who would have been hurt worst by the stock market crash
2. being black helped Obama in areas with snobby, white guilt-type racism
3. The Republican party went out of it's way to alienate these voters

Also, with regard to racism among working class white Democrats, it could very well be that these folks are in fact racist but that their racism no longer extends to voting behavior. Their vote for a black man is entirely independent of whether they would allow a black person into their house or allow their daughter to marry one.

[Stranger in a strange land]

looks like I was right about whites in the states that mattered. I was wrong about Appalachia and the Deep South, but Obama didn't need them as it turned out, and he never had a chance of winning LA, MS, TN, or AL, and only a very, very weak chance of winning WV.

The Muslim rumor failed and probably backfired. Obama's race didn't turn hurt him nearly as much as many thought it would for two reasons. First, he was able to use his "difference" to his advantage. Change vs more of the same. Nothing says change like a young black guy. Secondly, and far more importantly, he ran on the economy and specifically avoided running on black issues. How many times did you hear him mention police brutality or affirmative action?

The financial crisis enabled him to get over the issue of race.

This is a pretty standard excuse being used now, but is anyone else kind of skeptical? Anyone else notice that it appears the shift after that happened in very affluent normally Republican voting areas, and supposedly racist working class Democratic areas were always with him?

It's easy to use this as an excuse as to why Obama won Pennsylvania, but McCain still hadn't led in a poll there for almost 5 months when it happened.

What kind of data are you basing this on? I imagine it is hard to tell, since sub-sampling is notoriously difficult. But it seems to me that Obama was getting a lot of support from white suburban type of voters from the beginning and that the key problem he had was with white working-class voters. This I see as the reason for him being not better than tied despite all the dynamics working in favour of the Democrats.

It has been a mainstream opinion for a long time that blue-collar voters are more inclined to vote Democrat if they vote on economic issues, Republican if they vote on cultural values. From there, the logic is pretty straight-forward.

But, if you have sources that refute this, feel free. I'm ready to change my mind, since I haven't really researched this that carefully.

Stranger: 2 of your 3 points seem to be unrelated to the crisis, and explain why Obama did so well with suburban voters, not why he increased disproportinoately among them after the crisis struck (something I'm still not convinced of).

I'm more interested in finding out why racism didn't hurt Obama as much as many people (myself included) thought it would, and why Obama did much better in the suburbs than most other Democrats would have done. In Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, and Florida, it seems that his overperformance in the suburbs allowed him to cancel out underperformance in areas that swung against him due to race and failure to connect culturally. He lost Appalachia badly and the Florida panhandle swung against him hard, yet he still did about as well in these states as a white candidate with similar views would have done. Increased turnout among blacks was certainly a big factor also, a group with whom Kerry had way underperformed.

As for why suburban voters went disproportionately to Obama after the crisis, it may have been partly for reasons not directly related to the crisis: the Palin implosion and the whole Real America/Fake America nonsense hurt the McCain/Palin ticket most in urban and suburban areas.

[Stranger in a strange land]

No one cares about the White working class in politics. If you have money you get what you want and if you are a minority you get special privileges as well but if you are poor working class and white than you are screwed.

Haven't really got to know you yet, BUT..... Yeah there are times I think you're right.  Add being overweight, male and average height (unless you're a Kennedy then you become a Senator)  You get discriminated against and no one cares hell it's even highly supported.  Even our own women want to now get with men of color at the clubs nowadays.  And it's not just one club or me for that matter.  I'm starting to think young white women want to piss off their parents or something.  I hate being racist, but these black dudes act so cocky about it you just want to hit some of them.  My inner Rizzocrat was boiling after last weekend.  Should I change my avatar to (I)? I really am confused sometimes and I have to admit this last election gave me the spins at times.

....  whipps out the Confederate Flag with States........



Ok, not yet, but I'm starting to think that there are people who think that we have to take shots at the white male to makeup for past discrimination and would hate to think that Obama's election is now causing black men to be more aggressive around white women.  I'm not saying all black men but I find some of them think whites are soft and can be pushed around.  If I were to have a bout of jungle fever and go to a black club like SOLO and do the same thing, I know I'd get my ass whooped handily.  Amazingly, I rarely see black women at some places I go, but see a lot of black men looking for white women.

I voted for Obama... want out of Iraq.... no more Bush policies..  holds nose.

And you were branding me the closet racist awhile ago...

I'm not even sure it's so much that as that he seems to be blaming Obama for his inability to get laid