Next country to elect a right-wing populist?

[Former President tack50]

Italy, followed by Finland as a distant second. I don't know enough about the Latin American countries to have an opinion on those though. I will also consider electing a right wing populist as getting a right wing populist president or PM, not forming part of the government.

In any case here would be my ratings for the countries I know more about

Canada: Impossible. FPTP plus the PPC flopping mean there is 0 chance of populists here

Spain: Unlikely. Vox beating PP and becoming the largest party of the right is possible but unlikely. And even then PP and Cs would have to agree to let them rule and the combined right would need to win a majority. Not impossible but no exactly likely to happen soon.

France: Unlikely. FN is one of the best performing parties in Western Europe, but the fact that everyone will unite against them plus the 2 round system makes it unlikely that they will win.

Germany: Impossible. The cordon sanitaire is just too strong. Just look at that regional election in East Germany

Netherlands: Very unlikely. Strong cordon sanitaire plus VVD seems like a lock for first means it is not likely that either of FvD or PVV will win. Assuming their joint vote held, a coalition between the 2 could work but that seems impossible to happen.

Finland: Possible. PS is currently in first so that plus a right wing majority would mean a PS prime minister if the rest of the right allows it. Relatively likely but also not a lock

Italy: Very likely. Unless the election system is changed or polls change drastically, Matteo Salvini seems like a lock for Italy's next prime minister. He might even be able to ditch Forza Italia from his coalition and have a pure right wing populist government with FdI if he does well enough

Greece: Impossible. Golden Dawn is gone, and the rest of the Greek right wing populists don't seem like PM material any time soon to me.