Ukrainian Parliamentary Election, 2019

[kelestian]

President Zelenskiy dissolved Parliament. Snap election on the 21th of July.

Latest opinion poll:
Servant of the People (Zelensky's party) - 39.9%
Opposition Bloc - For Life (pro-russian) - 10.9%
BPP (former president Poroshenko) - 10.6%
Fatherland (Timoshenko) - 9.1%
Strength and Honor (Smeshko, former head of intelligence) - 5.1%
Civil Position (Hrytsenko, former minister of defense) - 5%

Other parties under threshold (5%)

[kelestian]

Zelenskiy and some parties want change electoral system before election. They propose full-proportional system with 3% threshold.

[kelestian]

Why is Self Reliance doing poorly in the recent polls?

Internal divisions within the party (leadership expelled the whole Kiev regional party organisation),
Low ratings of party leader Sadovy - his reputation suffered after refusal crysis in Lviv (Sadovy is mayor of Lviv),
Unclear party identity - is it liberal cosmopolitan party of urban population from different parts of Ukraine or another national-conservative party with western electorate?

[kelestian]

Parliament rejected Zelenskiy's proposals. Election will be under current laws, 225 seats by proportional system with 5% threshold, 199 legislators will be elected in fptp districts.

[kelestian]

Fresh poll from "Rating":

Without undecided

Servant of the People (Zelensky) - 48.2%
Opposition Bloc For Life (pro-russian) - 10.7%
European Solidarity (Poroshenko) - 7.8%
Fatherland (Timoshenko) - 6.9%
Voice Party (singer Vakarchuk) - 5.6%

Other parties below 5% threshold.

[kelestian]

Elections in a week! Surprisingly, results of the polls haven't changed much since early June.

Last Rating poll:
Servant of the People (Zelensky) - 47.0%
Opposition Bloc For Life (pro-russian) - 11.6%
European Solidarity (Poroshenko) - 8.2%
Fatherland (Timoshenko) - 6.4%
Voice Party (singer Vakarchuk) - 6.6%

I've seen some polls from fptp constituencies, they all are pretty bad for Servant of the People. Zelensky's candidates in fptp districts are mostly nobodies with little name recognition and political background, they ran well behind Servant of the People and Zelensky's ratings. So, probably there will be many independent winners in fptp districts (former deputies from BPP and Popular Front also ran as independents), i'm curious about what government coalition will look like.

[kelestian]

Why did Civil Platform and the Radical Party fall so low? Damn, Akhmetov’s latter vehicle got shafted.

The Civil Platform's electorate is similar to the Strenght and Honor's and Voice's electorate, so more popular parties have now cast votes in Hrytsenko.

Lyashko did not remain popular because of his excessive populism. He did not do anything important for the country, but speaks a lot.

Lyashko is Populist In Name Only, spoke a lot and later voted with government.
Also after bad result in presidential, Akhmetov stripped Radical Party from money

[kelestian]

So which party is for the Maidan veterans?

European Solidarity, Voice, Fatherland. Also some are in Servant of the People, but not that many

[kelestian]

Any turnout figures and maps?

At 12 am (GMT +3) turnout was 19,15%. The highest turnout in Eastern Ukraine, the lowest turnout in the West of Ukraine

Are you sure it's not the other way around? Turnout is usually way higher in the West... If this is the case, then nationalists have really dropped the ball. Too many parties, too many oligarchs, too few real leaders.

Not really, at this time. Usually eastern voters vote earlier, western later - time difference + many people in the West go to church Sunday morning.

[kelestian]

There are rumours that Servant of the People won A LOT OF fptp districts.

Turnout until 16:00 is lower than in 2014:

36.6%

In 2014, it was 40.8% at the same time.

45-50% final turnout is likely, which would be pretty bad.

Immigration, demographic crisys...

[kelestian]

If neccessary - Servant may make coalition with Fatherland and Voice leaving both poisonous Poroshenko and "too pro-Putin" Boyko in opposition. IMHO, that would be a natural step for Zelensky....

Fatherland unlikely. Tymoshenko is too toxic

[kelestian]

What happened to Right Sector/National Corps and the like? They didn't end up on the ballot? Also had to do a double take when reading "Partia Sharia"... unfortunate use of cases here

They formed coalition with Freedom (Svoboda) party. Currently at 2.1%, although 2-3 candidates from Nationalistic bloc are winning in fptp districts.

[kelestian]

Women currently are leading in 24 of 199 majoritarian districts. In 2014 only one woman won in fptp district.

[kelestian]

Looks like Ze will easily get his majority. 'Only' low 40s in the PR vote, but cleaning house with pluralities in the SMDs.

Usual situation in fptp elections... Our own "United Russia" routinely wins the same way...

I thought Russia used a PR systen, at least before the constitutional reforms? (Not like it matters as elections are quite rigged I guess)

Have used for a long time, but system had been changed before last Duma election (especially critical now, given failing ratings of ruling party) . In the end it was like 40% voted for UR, result was rigged so they got 50% by PR, and they wom majority of fptp constituencies, so 343 of 450 mandates for United Russia.