AZ-Magellan (R): McSally leads GOP primary field

[Webnicz]

Good for her, McSally better hope one of them doesn’t drop out otherwise she’s screwed. Whoever wins the primary will be pretty damaged.

I think the most interesting part is that only 7% have not made up their minds yet, it is possible but could also indicate McSally fluff numbers.

[Webnicz]

McSally likely wins the general if she holds on and wins here.

She has become a Kelli Ward herself. She chose to go far right as opposed to moderate to win her primary which will hurt big time in the general. Her recent gaffes aside lets not forget to mention

her name rec is slim to none among general election voters in the Phoenix metro

she has half the amount of COH as her general election opponent, most of her current cash she will have to spend on the primary.

[Webnicz]

Some interesting food for thought on Arpaio:

-He won 65% of his primary election in 2016 (the same electorate that will be voting in this primary)
-He has huge name recognition boost
-Republicans love the man (remember at the AZ rally when Trump first brought up a pardon and the entire crowd went nuts?)

For these reasons I believe he is most likely to win Maricopa county despite loosing statewide. If 65% voted for him over Dan Saban (a legitimate primary opponent) why would they dump him now?