Politico
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Posts: 4,862
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« on: August 05, 2012, 12:11:35 AM » |
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« edited: August 05, 2012, 12:16:47 AM by Politico »
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We're getting ahead of ourselves since it's not written in stone that the polls will show it being a close race on election day. Mind you, I think it will either be close or a Romney blowout, but the latter is still a distinct possibility at this point. Six of the last eight races involving incumbents were blowouts, dating back about half a century, and it is really difficult to see Obama winning a blowout at this point. In other words, odds are that Romney is going to win this in a blowout or it's a 50-50 tossup in a close race (Ford barely lost in '76 and Bush barely won in '04; current conditions are far more in line with 1976 than 2004 since we're in an economic malaise after the end of a war, resembling 1976 to a strong degree, although obviously Ford is a very different president than Obama and so forth...).
Obviously every race is different and what has happened before has no real bearing on the present, but history tends to repeat itself...
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