What state(s) will see the largest shifts in the next 4 electoral cycles? (user search)
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  What state(s) will see the largest shifts in the next 4 electoral cycles? (search mode)
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Author Topic: What state(s) will see the largest shifts in the next 4 electoral cycles?  (Read 3129 times)
Rookie Yinzer
RFKFan68
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,188
United States


« on: June 03, 2018, 01:47:36 PM »

Georgia: The growing non-white population in the Atlanta metro, the potential for the black voter bloc to flex its muscles, and suburban whites possibly shifting Dem on the presidential level (not necessarily locally)

2016: Trump +5, 2020: Trump +2, 2024: Dem +5, 2028: Dem +8 (Stacey Abrams on the ballot Wink ), 2032: Dem +10

Arizona: Hispanic population aging into the electorate, California transplants
2016: Trump +4, 2020: Dem +2, 2024: Dem +7, 2028: Dem +10, 2032: Dem +12

I'm not well versed enough about the population shifts, age and racial demographics in the Mid-west to make completely accurate predictions, but I feel like for the GOP it would be Wisconsin and Ohio, though I may be wrong about them (especially Ohio-- which I don't pay attention to at all lol).
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Rookie Yinzer
RFKFan68
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,188
United States


« Reply #1 on: June 03, 2018, 02:59:57 PM »

Michigan could be a candidate here on the Republican side.
I predict Michigan will swing back to the Dems in 2020 before reversing course dramatically. The memory of Trump will melt away faster than an icicle in hell, and the Democratic president will become the new devil incarnate. And aren't AAs fleeing Detroit for the South? If we get a two-term Democratic president and somehow another Democratic president in 2028, I can see the 2032 GOP nominee winning by a solid 10-15 points. Especially if the incumbent president is someone easy to label as an ultra-radical tax and spend liberal like a Newsom, Harris, Abrams, etc.
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