ND - Cramer +12 (FOX)

[Pollster]

Most North Dakota polls (including internals and those from prominent firms) should be treated with a grain of salt. The state has no voter registration and therefore no reliable voter file. Pollsters have no idea who they are interviewing (with regards to vote history, modeled turnout probability, and other voter file data that pollsters use to draw samples). The state really is a political consultant's nightmare.

That being said, even a faulty voter file (which was almost certainly used for this poll) would not cause a 12 point deficit. Heitkamp is probably trailing, though 12 points is probably not the truth.

[Pollster]

I remember when MT was a "difficult state to poll". Apparently it no longer is, because no one ever makes that point in the threads discussing polls showing Tester ahead.

In my experience Montana has actually been fairly easy to poll. The state has high landline connectivity, good regional distribution, fairly stable turnout differentials, and one of the best-maintained voter files in the country.

[Pollster]

Dismiss the lack of a real voter file if you so please to fit your personal analysis, it doesn't change the fact that they are critical to polling.