2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2

[Bidenworth2020]

Big recruting news. Dems finally get a big name to run against Katko I. NY-24 as Juanita Perez Williams is entering the race after declining earlier http://cnycentral.com/news/local/juanita-perez-williams-expected-to-run-for-congress

That's good. She's a high profile candidate who will get money flowing into NY-24.

yay, moving to tilt r

[Bidenworth2020]

Comstock will overperform Trump in Virginia, unlike most Republicans who will underperform Trump.

Which means she loses by 6 instead of by 10 like Trump did.

But Young Conservative is a far right polarized 100% reliable GOP voter who will always usually vote GOP no matter what so obviously Republicans win everything.

edit.

Name 3 federal dems you would support in 2018

I don't have to justify myself to you, nor do I need to support a particular number of candidates this cycle to prove my opinion is valid.

lol, and you call the left snowflakes

[Bidenworth2020]

So basically YC would only vote for dems that are more conservative than the republican lmao

Proved my point that yc is a hack

I think it just demonstrates that he's a conservative.  He's far less of a hack than a number of others (who shall remain nameless so as not to invoke their presence).

Thank you. I’m a conservative. I mean what does he expect me to do?  Vote for the socialist party to justify to him that I am an independent thinker?

see, that wasnt that hard. Why were you trying to sit in your moral high chair and say "I will not respond to you?

[Bidenworth2020]

None of this is exact, but it is pretty accurate. For instance Fayette County Clerk only shows twelve additional write in votes and like 4 extra votes for Paul and a couple less for Gray, so literally like 2/5th's of the CD's population with over 136,000 votes shows only like a 14 or so vote discrepancy from my chart I got from NYT. So vote totals might be a few dozen off, and maybe minuscule percent changes and a few dozen write in votes, but overall this is like over 99% accurate. Anyways I thought it was a decent visual.







Anyways, I think this race on the house level is tilt D in 2018.

this was already on dke, 50-46 gray. 51-48 may be the two party vote

[Bidenworth2020]

Fundrasing for KS-02 has come out and holy sh*t:
Paul Davis (D): 338,000
Caryn Tyson (R): 41,000
Steve Watkins (R): 40,000
Steve Firzgerald (R): 25,000
Kevin Jones (R): 6,000

Wow.

Maybe Bernieism is taking over the GOP as well. Perhaps all the Republicans in KS-02 are saying no to corporate cash?

no, only dems are actually grassroots sustainable

[Bidenworth2020]

LOL! What are they going to do? Hire more consultants?

The Republican establishment spent $150 million on Please Clap so he could finish 7th in Iowa or whatever. I'm quaking in my boots.

The democrats spent about a billion trying to elect a washed up, out of touch, career politician. Instead, they lost to a gaffe machine billionaire who never held elected office.

That proves their point, you know.

Their point was the GOP is bad at picking candidates, but it isn’t like Democrats are better.

No, the others are correct. My point was that $30 million Adelson gave is useless because the Republican establishment has proven time and again they don't spend money effectively.

That's literally what I said your point was....and your point doesnt matter because the Democratic establishment is just as bad at picking candidates.....

incumbent senators todd akin, christine odonell, mourdock, angle, etc approve this messavge

[Bidenworth2020]

I don’t know what Morris is thinking. He has Conor Lamb with only a 30% chance of winning.

I found that odd too, but it has nothing to do with his open personal opinion.

So he’s personally more bullish than his model, which is probably a good sign. I’d rather models skew conservative in their assumptions

it isnt that, it is that the model religiously follows pvi

[Bidenworth2020]

While LimoLOLbral (Andrew) concern trolls about Tanzie Youngblood and Dan Helmer, the non-CA primary I’m legitimately worried about is ME-2. Maine Democrats always seem to nominate horrendous people, so let’s see if something changes. Any Mariners have any news on the ground in that race?

what is wrong with helmer? the bad ad doesnt represent him being a rhodes scholar

[Bidenworth2020]

While LimoLOLbral (Andrew) concern trolls about Tanzie Youngblood and Dan Helmer, the non-CA primary I’m legitimately worried about is ME-2. Maine Democrats always seem to nominate horrendous people, so let’s see if something changes. Any Mariners have any news on the ground in that race?

what is wrong with helmer? the bad ad doesnt represent him being a rhodes scholar

He’s pretty reckless. He compared Trump to Bin Laden, and he makes comments like this quite often. One day he may say something even worse and torpedo our chances in VA-10. It’s quite blue nowadays, but it has a highly educated and informed electorate, where a Todd Akin-like comment by Dan Helmer would probably hand over the election to Comstock.

ah ok, wexler made more sense anyway

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/1005062773607452672

WHY CA 50?

[Bidenworth2020]

dear god please minimize that picture lmao

[Bidenworth2020]

Daily Kos Elections now has senate rankings, though they are basically the same as everyone else's. Remember, DKE and DK are basically two seperate things: DK are Extreme Hacks, DKE is mainly data analysis from a normal left view, similar to RRH's analysis from the normal right.

Way too generous to Republicans in NV and AZ, but other than that these ratings are fine (and a lot better than Cook's), though WV, ND and MT could certainly be moved to Lean D and OH and WI to Likely D. And TN is probably a Tossup at this point.

please stop the concern trolling. ND is likely d at the very least

[Bidenworth2020]

please stop the concern trolling. ND is likely d at the very least

You need to look up the definition of "concern trolling" before throwing around that term on a regular basis. I agree with you that Heitkamp is underrated, but Lean D is probably closer to reality than Safe D if you’re only using three categories (Tossup, Lean, Safe).

sure, but why aren't you using likely?

[Bidenworth2020]

Cook Political Report moves TX-32 to Toss Up

Wasserman writes:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

looks like bagel was onto something

[Bidenworth2020]

Va-7 at tossup seems bullish.

Dems have a very good candidate, Brat is probably not the best Republican for D-trending district (someone like Comstock would be better), and Stewart on the ballot will not help here.

still, that is a really R district. I'd be surprised if he lost

[Bidenworth2020]

Guys, I texted Richard Ojeda and he responded.

seriously, get him to do an ama on atlas!

what did he say?

[Bidenworth2020]

interesting article on il-12, which convinced me this was lean r

https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article214083034.html

[Bidenworth2020]

National Journal has an article that presents the theory Democrats may not be able to depend on Hispanics:

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/669861?unlock=KAUSQTFQV9QBKC1M

did you just search "Democrats losing support among minorities"

[Bidenworth2020]

I have been looking at various data and information sources, and it seems that the people of SC-05 do not care about the domestic abuse issue with Archie Parnell. He will probably lose, but it will not be because of this.

No one ever seems to bring it up on replies to his tweets on twitter.

Because the truth is nobody cares or even probably knows in real life. Nobody cared about Bill Clinton's indiscretions or Ronald Reagan banging 15 year old girls or Marion Barry smoking crack.

they definitely did lmao, there is no reason an r should be getting 41% of the vote

[Bidenworth2020]

I'm all for putting races on the board, but I think TX-24 is a bridge too far. It's certainly less competitive than TX-06, TX-10, or TX-25 at least, all of which Cook has at Safe R. All of those races have far more credible candidates with several times more money, and all of them have weaker incumbents than the rather entrenched Marchant.

tbh, it is probably a district Beto wins. so I could see it being an Ortiz 2010 situation, as Wasserman mentions

[Bidenworth2020]

where are all the dem ad buys?

[Bidenworth2020]

Primary Cuellar!

Idiocy. Such attempts were made in the past and failed. In addition - many his primary votes hold similar views: rural Texas Hispanics are, generally, substantially much more tolerant of Republican conservatives, then their urban "brethern".

we shouldn't run a berniecrat, of course. We can still have someone from that district who represents them well (conservative on social issues, hispanic cowboy type) without raising money for a tea party republican who we have a slim shot against.

[Bidenworth2020]

seriously, where is all the dem spending???

[Bidenworth2020]

So, it's been bothering me for the past day or so. This week, Trump has visited three states: WV, TN & MS. We all know that these 3 states under normal conditions are strong GOP bastions, and we of course know that TN & WV have competitive Senate races in states Trump won by hefty margins.

So what's Trump doing in MS a month before the election? I know there's a belief that he just likes to have rallies in places where he has lots of fans, but every other aspect of his recent tour makes logistical and strategic sense - especially since we're so close to the election. I wonder if they're seeing movement in the special Senate race that suggests his presence is needed...

Here's another twist on that: what if Trump's rally boosts turnout for McDaniel (clearly a more Trumpish candidate than Hyde-Smith) and pushes McDaniel into a runoff with Espy?

he never mentioned McDaniel, and mentioned Hyde smith a ton of times, so I don't see how those two correlate