Joe Biden 2020 campaign megathread v3 (pg 45 - mass-dropout aftermath)

[Bidenworth2020]

Who needs to waste money on television advertising (probably at inflated rates on account of Steyer's massive buys) when you're counting on Culinary Union muscle to beat down the pro-M4A candidates who stand in your way?

They are not backing Biden though? Maybe individual members lean towards him, but it isn't like they are putting their man (or woman may be more appropriate since the union is pretty female-dominated) power behind a single candidate.

[Bidenworth2020]

Captain Sullenberger has an op-ed in the NYT today defending Biden on the subject of his speech impediment.

http://archive.is/4D1SV

That would be the speech impediment that the maroon and green avatars on here (notably, not so much the blue avatars) gleefully mocked him for earlier this year, declaring that he was retarded, his brain was melting, it was time for him to "be put down", etc.

A speech disorder is a lot easier to treat than a character defect. You become a true leader, not because of how you speak, but because of what you have to say — and the challenges you have overcome to help others.

Powerful words.

In all fairness, the quality of Biden's speeches and other verbal presentations has notably decreased.

[Bidenworth2020]

Captain Sullenberger has an op-ed in the NYT today defending Biden on the subject of his speech impediment.

http://archive.is/4D1SV

That would be the speech impediment that the maroon and green avatars on here (notably, not so much the blue avatars) gleefully mocked him for earlier this year, declaring that he was retarded, his brain was melting, it was time for him to "be put down", etc.

A speech disorder is a lot easier to treat than a character defect. You become a true leader, not because of how you speak, but because of what you have to say — and the challenges you have overcome to help others.

Powerful words.

In all fairness, the quality of Biden's speeches and other verbal presentations has notably decreased.

Yeah I agree.  I wonder how much of that has to do with all the restrictions he's under now that he's running for president.  Often when I watch him speak or read his words, it feels like his advisors told him a bunch of things that he can't say, and he's constantly stopping himself just in the nick of time.  It's hard enough focusing on speaking clearly without also having all that going through your head.

Just a conjecture, of course.

I hope this is true. That would explain his near-constant use of the word "infact" to essentially stall while trying to think of what to say. And for what it is worth, Biden has always been better and still is very good with more intimate venues-- interviews, small town halls and the like. Ultimately, I just hope his advisors let him be in his element more, because, even despite his difficulties in communicating, he can come across as authentic, which additionally would play on a stage with Trump IMO. IDK, just some thoughts.

[Bidenworth2020]

Captain Sullenberger has an op-ed in the NYT today defending Biden on the subject of his speech impediment.

http://archive.is/4D1SV

That would be the speech impediment that the maroon and green avatars on here (notably, not so much the blue avatars) gleefully mocked him for earlier this year, declaring that he was retarded, his brain was melting, it was time for him to "be put down", etc.

A speech disorder is a lot easier to treat than a character defect. You become a true leader, not because of how you speak, but because of what you have to say — and the challenges you have overcome to help others.

Powerful words.

In all fairness, the quality of Biden's speeches and other verbal presentations has notably decreased.

Yeah I agree.  I wonder how much of that has to do with all the restrictions he's under now that he's running for president.  Often when I watch him speak or read his words, it feels like his advisors told him a bunch of things that he can't say, and he's constantly stopping himself just in the nick of time.  It's hard enough focusing on speaking clearly without also having all that going through your head.

Just a conjecture, of course.

I hope this is true. That would explain his near-constant use of the word "infact" to essentially stall while trying to think of what to say. And for what it is worth, Biden has always been better and still is very good with more intimate venues-- interviews, small town halls and the like. Ultimately, I just hope his advisors let him be in his element more, because, even despite his difficulties in communicating, he can come across as authentic, which additionally would play on a stage with Trump IMO. IDK, just some thoughts.

So random personal fact, I actually coach public speaking, and these are the sorts of things I pick up on immediately.

Every politician has "stall phrases" that they slip in when they're trying to put their thoughts together.
 And when you watch these politicians speak often enough, it doesn't take long to pick them out.  Just like how Elizabeth Warren always starts her tougher answers with a long "So......" and if she still wants to stall, "let's talk about [subject]"

At the start of his campaign, and in his first few debates, Biden's stall phrase was "the fact of the matter is."  Then in his third debate, I want to say, whichever one had people saying he looked a lot sharper, I noticed that he'd switched it to just "in fact" which is about two seconds faster.  And it was immediately obvious that his aides had picked up on this and told him "if you're going to stall, just say 'in fact', don't say 'the fact of the matter is' because you just sound goofy saying it over and over and over"

Stutterers, of course, are notorious for using a variety of stall phrases, because they have to not only form the words in their head before they say them, but consciously use a variety of vocal tricks to make sure the words come out properly.

If you go watch Biden deliver prepared remarks, or do his stump speech, he's far more lucid and confident.  Here's the most recent YouTube video I could find:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dnYjK_djFfw

Wow, I am actually stricken by the contrast between Biden on the debate stage and him at this particular rally. Every bit as lucid as any of the other candidates. Maybe it was just a good day for him, who knows. Gives me some hope he can overcome some of his issues debating in time for Trump.

[Bidenworth2020]

Wow, I am actually stricken by the contrast between Biden on the debate stage and him at this particular rally. Every bit as lucid as any of the other candidates. Maybe it was just a good day for him, who knows. Gives me some hope he can overcome some of his issues debating in time for Trump.

No, every Biden event is like this.  I've watched a bunch of them.  Not by choice so much as because people keep taking quotes from his events out of context, and I have to go dig up the live stream replay to find what was actually said.  Remember when Biden was accused of forgetting when MLK died and saying no women protested the Vietnam War?  Out-of-context quotes from these events.

If you skip ahead to 55:30, that's when the questions start, and you can see that it's not just when he's reciting his stump speech (which, like Trump in 2016, is more of a grab-bag of ever-changing monologues than a single speech like Warren/Sanders) that he's lucid.  He can also think on his feet and answer questions.  And his answers are exceptionally detailed and intelligent, far more so than you could ever imagine from any of the other candidates except for perhaps Buttigieg.

This is part of why the campaign has been so frustrating for me.  The Biden that people see in the media and on stage is pretty divorced from the real Joe.  Those debate stages, with thirty-second snippets where you constantly have to speak extemporaneously and Biden's #1 goal is to avoid making any slip-ups, are the worst possible venue for him.  But that's all most people see.  His interviews on TV have been fantastic but haven't received much coverage.

I would be interested to see how he did in the 2008 primary debates-- similar circumstances to today in terms of the amount of people on the stage, though of course, he was not a frontrunner.

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/JoeTeens/status/1219114182244782082

This was probably the best moment in the NYT's endorsement episode last night. Biden seems like a very likable guy.

Wow, obviously it is anecdotal, but I do not think I could think of a better representation of Joe Biden's campaign up to now than this clip and what happened after. (Black female security guard is very warm with Joe, whom she likely has incredibly fond memories of as Obama's funny sidekick, right before he gets grilled by a bunch of white liberals with an inflated sense of self-importance).

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/richrmurphy/status/1219381143948054533

Who wants to bet this is out of context?

[Bidenworth2020]

After all of these months, you guys are STILL posting these videos as if anyone cares or if they will have any effect on the polls whatsoever. Get a grip, people.

[Bidenworth2020]

The difference in Biden and Sanders’ leads against Trump in Jose polls is statistically insignificant and a statistician of Morris’s background is negligent not to mention that

The fact that Biden consistently does 1-2 better than Bernie in pretty much EVERY poll though, and usually better than that median when there is a discrepancy, DOES point to it being statistically significant. Also the fact that Biden's "undecideds" are far more favorable to him than Bernie's are, as Bernie has consolidated the younger vote to an extent Biden has not yet.

[Bidenworth2020]

The difference in Biden and Sanders’ leads against Trump in Jose polls is statistically insignificant and a statistician of Morris’s background is negligent not to mention that

The fact that Biden consistently does 1-2 better than Bernie in pretty much EVERY poll though, and usually better than that median when there is a discrepancy, DOES point to it being statistically significant. Also the fact that Biden's "undecideds" are far more favorable to him than Bernie's are, as Bernie has consolidated the younger vote to an extent Biden has not yet.

I don’t know what stats class you took, but that is still not a conclusion supported by statistically significant empirical data

Maybe on its face it doesn't point to a major edge for Biden on the electability front, but a deeper dive into the points to this conclusion as well. The reason Bernie is keeping so close to Biden right now is due to 1) already picking up demographics that Biden has not yet fully consolidated, but will inevitably once the general begins and 2) not having been touched by negative ads,.on either side really. This is seen by Bernie's overwhelming edge in "trustworthiness", compared to Biden and the others to a lesser extent. He has started to receive some of this treatment due to his rise (though obviously not the real attack material) If you do not think Republicans will nullify that edge to an immeasurable extent, I have a bridge to sell you.

[Bidenworth2020]

This is some funny sh*t right here

https://twitter.com/jeneps/status/1223661114594070529

https://twitter.com/jeneps/status/1223661543142973441

This is what I love about Biden-- like it or not, most other candidates besides maybe Bernie would blow up about stuff like this.

[Bidenworth2020]

Actually Buttigieg was very cool about these disruptors as well.

Bernie, as far as I know, only does rallies and never has to deal with this kind of thing.

Butti seems to be pretty thin-skinned at times, at least in debates. I won't go through his events, but I do not think he would be totally cool about stuff like this. Not necessarily blaming him, I just think Biden has over time become more comfortable with the fact that half the country will always hate him and doesn't freak out about it.

[Bidenworth2020]

Actually Buttigieg was very cool about these disruptors as well.

Bernie, as far as I know, only does rallies and never has to deal with this kind of thing.

Butti seems to be pretty thin-skinned at times, at least in debates. I won't go through his events, but I do not think he would be totally cool about stuff like this. Not necessarily blaming him, I just think Biden has over time become more comfortable with the fact that half the country will always hate him and doesn't freak out about it.

Here's an example

https://twitter.com/jackturmaniii/status/1203100073888026625?s=21

Passively holding up a sign is one thing. Aggressively trying to talk over the candidate with incredibly hyperbolic statements is another.

[Bidenworth2020]

Biden definitely isn't "done", but he really needs to win SC by a lot, and I think NV could be a problem for him, given how poor his organization seemed in this caucus, and that Sanders will have less competition.

I think if he achieves any less than one of these single results, he’s toast:

NH: 3rd
NV: 2nd
SC: 1st

In fairness, I don't think that's impossible

[Bidenworth2020]

Biden definitely isn't "done", but he really needs to win SC by a lot, and I think NV could be a problem for him, given how poor his organization seemed in this caucus, and that Sanders will have less competition.

I think if he achieves any less than one of these single results, he’s toast:

NH: 3rd
NV: 2nd
SC: 1st

In fairness, I don't think that's impossible

If you take out the big outlier in NH in Biden’s favor,  I’d say it’s more likely he finishes another 4th in NH than 2nd.

So... We agree? I am essentially saying hitting 3rd place in NH and then getting close in NV is certainly plausible.

[Bidenworth2020]

Last time I checked, 15.9 rounds up to 16%.

[Bidenworth2020]

[img width=760 height=760]https://i.ibb.co/hMTqwQy/vote-for

Last time I checked, 15.9 rounds up to 16%.

Are you going to be changing your username anytime soon

? I do not see why I would lol. He is still a co-frontrunner.

[Bidenworth2020]

Last time I checked, 15.9 rounds up to 16%.

oh drat, how will the person who made this comic ever recover

Someone can't take a joke lmao ( and I am pretty sure the guy was right if you go by PV). In any case, the comic is pretty lackluster.

[Bidenworth2020]

Caroline Kennedy just endorsed Biden, this will seal the deal in SC

Will the Biden campaign employ her as a surrogate? I hope that her handlers remember to keep her away from electrical outlets and choking hazards.

If this has any effect, it will hurt Biden. She is a total joke who could not win as a democrat in Maryland.

[Bidenworth2020]

I guess he does not have much to lose in terms of AA's, so why not?

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/jeneps/status/1234274589544415232?s=20

Please endorse, Obama. Please.

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1234296761700823040

[Bidenworth2020]

Ok I get Biden polls the best out of the group normally but is anyone not concerned his campaign not only has been massively lackluster but that he shows all the warning signs Hillary had? He doesn’t inspire young people, he did awful in the first two rural states when he was supposed to be the WWC whisper, and he gaffes all the time. Seriously I don’t know how anyone can say with a straight face that Bernie is a guaranteed loss yet feel comfortable with Joe

The best I can explain this is as follows. First off, you're right. The potential enthusiasm Sanders could bring to a campaign versus Biden is the number one reason to vote for Sanders. There's a decent argument that to beat Trump one has to inspire and bring out to the polls usually reluctant voters. Again, Sanders has a better chance of doing that than Biden. Yes, Biden could lose. Hillary leading all the polls, and yes beat Trump by a few million votes, but that damn Electoral College still pulled an inside straight on us.

All this said, I fear Sanders is too much of a Gamble. He is a bona fide radical, and Americans are generally feeling to upbeat about the economy right now to vote for a radical. As old school Republican very sagely put it, Bernie had a much better chance of winning in 2016 when 36% of Voters had a positive view of the direction of the country's economy, as opposed to now in about 60% do. Yes, as another poster I forget whom mentioned that there's a lot of wiggle room in those numbers to where people are still personally concerned about their household finances and whether or not their jobs, their kids education, or Healthcare, could wipe them out. But those voters are much more likely to be swayed by a message of incremental change rather than Revolution.

Assuming there is not a tangible drop off with the economy within the next several months, voters will reject Trump despite the economy rather than because of it. That's a good argument for biting as opposed to Sanders.

Also, Biden has been in the public eye for decades, including eight years as vice president. He's a known commodity, and unlike Hillary Clinton who was aggressively and studiously demonized by the right for a quarter-century before her presidential election, Biden has survived largely intact. Yes, the Republican smear machine and media will land-based whoever the nominee is as an out-of-touch radical, blah blah blah. The difference is there is so much that could realistically stick to Sanders, as it did with Clinton, in a way that just wouldn't resonate to voters when attacking Biden.

What are they going to bring up?, he played rise of British politicians speech when running for president over 30 years ago. Yeah, I can literally count on one hand the number of Swing voters Nationwide who will switch because of that. He has a tendency towards mouth prop isms and gaffs? Please. What person in their right mind is going to say to themselves, I wasn't decided, but Biden shooting from the lip and occasionally getting his words mangled have convinced me to support.....Donald Trump?

While the thought of sacrificing turnout for maintaining support in middle-class suburbs by choosing Biden over Sanders is in of itself its own risk. There's a valid argument to make that running a 90s Democrat running on a platform of incremental reform plus not being Donald Trump blue what should have been a winnable election in 2016. But again, Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton. He has nowhere near the baked in negative views that the quarter-century of right-wing smears inflicted on Hillary. And even the vaunted Republican media machine can't recreate Rome in a day. They'll have about 25 weeks to demonize Joe Biden, not 25 years. And they just have so so much less to work with.

The other aspect to it is Clinton's organization ran a god-awful campaign. Not campaigning at all in Wisconsin? Running ads in New Orleans not to bolster down-ticket races but for the sole purpose of padding the Nationwide popular majority?!? F****** unreal. One can readily argue that Biden and his campaign will not be caught napping this time. Stander stand that winning back Michigan - - practically a given I think - - Pennsylvania, and above all Wisconsin, it's going to be a fight. In other words, buying can run a campaign that Hillary should have and would have won with just buy a, not running a brain-dead campaign strategy, and B, simply not being Hillary Clinton w h o m most Americans viscerally distrusted, or even actively disliked.

On that point, Hillary did always give the impression of speaking like a politician out of both sides of her mouth. In some ways, Biden's direct honesty and plain speech, even when garble, gives the opposite impression, even for someone who's been actively in politics for 40 years now. That's a benefit Hillary Clinton would never have, and on which he can reasonably match Sanders.

Tl;dr version: Sanders radical agenda is too great a risk when 60% of Americans approve of the economy's direction, and leaves too many openings for Republicans to scare middle-class and upper-middle-class Suburban Heights who dislike Trump into still voting for him as the lesser of two evils. And while Hillary Clinton didn't win running on a platform of incremental Progressive policy change plus not being Donald Trump due to being villified in most Americans Minds for a quarter-century, the same just doesn't hold true for Biden, who's playing spoken nature will be as much an advantage against Trump as Sanders own honesty, but without the considerable ideological baggage. Plus simply not campaigning on the mistaken belief that beating Trump is a foregone conclusion.

EDIT: Someday I swear I need to get a new voice to text app

All of this, and I would add that Biden has far more potential to capitalize on chaos coming out of the administration, considering he has advertised himself as a steady hand.

[Bidenworth2020]

Obviously Twitter is Twitter, but I quite literally have not seen anyone on it who was supporting Pete flip to anyone but Biden.

[Bidenworth2020]

Biden refers to Super Tuesday as super thursday.
https://twitter.com/SteveGuest/status/1234570453081034757

This is not even a f(inks)ing gaffe. He corrected himself immediately. You guys are desperate.