General Election 2010 Forum Forecasts

[Harry Hayfield]

With the election no less than 3 months away (assuming a June 3rd 2010 Election), I thought it might be an idea to see how accurate we forum members are at forecasting a British election as opposed to an American one. If I may be permitted to lead the way with this offering from the South West of England



Standard party colours (although when I add more regions some colours will need explaining) and white indicates too close to call (which my definition is a forecast majority less than the margin of error in polls which I have set at 3%)

[Harry Hayfield]

I've got a spreadsheet in the works. I'll also be running the Super Sixty again.

And to refresh our memories, a Super Sixty is what?

[Harry Hayfield]

The old South East region.

[Harry Hayfield]

Greater London



And for clarification:

Labour HOLD Barking with a 14% majority over Conservatives
Ilford South, Erith and Thamesmead Too close to call

[Harry Hayfield]

Poplar and Limehouse should be tossup, not Tory. Or even better, Labour hold.

In that case, tell George Galloway not to stand. His standing splits the Labour vote and allows the Conservatives to win.

[Harry Hayfield]

East Anglia (as was)

[Harry Hayfield]

Quick question Harry - where are you getting the boundaries from?

The really rather excellent Tally Room website run by Ben Raue

[Harry Hayfield]

...Ouch

Ouch as in there's rather too much blue on that map or Where's the red?

[Harry Hayfield]

Surely you don't think Norman Lamb is going to lose, Harry. If he lost, the Lib Dems would be down in the single digits in terms of seats.

Sorry, that's a mistake (but when you are going through a whole region and only find 3 non Conservatives it's easier to colour them all Con and then go through the non Con wins)

Norfolk North: Liberal Democrat HOLD with a majority of 11.78% over Con

[Harry Hayfield]

The East Midlands


And I think this could be another "Ouch" moment

[Harry Hayfield]

Constituency Details
Derby North: Conservative GAIN from Labour with a majority of 3.80%
Leicester South: Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour, too close to call
Loughborough: Conservative GAIN from Labour with a majority of 16.10%
Wallasey: Conservative GAIN from Labour, too close to call

[Harry Hayfield]

Scotland




New colour: SNP

[Harry Hayfield]

Argyll and Bute is probably an SNP gain given 07 and 09 Euro results, though its the area around Helensburgh and Lomond that will decide who wins it. Aberdeen North I agree is a tossup, but I don't believe that the Lib Dems will win Aberdeen South as they are likely to fall back somewhat. I also agree that the swathe of seats from Stirling through Falkirk down to Linlithgow are toss-ups. Add to that Midlothian and (given local troubles) East Lothian. In all these seats it will be Labour v SNP. The Lib Dems will not win Edinburgh North. The SNP may win Edinburgh East. Edinburgh South is a toss-up but the challengers there will be the Tories. Darling is probably safe in Edinburgh South East. Berwickshire etc will be a Tory gain from the Lib Dems Glasgow North will be held by Labour but again the challengers here are the SNP. The SNP will also 'challenge' in Glasgow Central (the one seat in Scotland I want Labour to win as a result...) and Glasgow South. Mason may also hold onto their Glasgow East win

These forecasts were orginally done in February (based on the average of the polls in Feb) when the Others (Plaid, SNP, Green, UKIP, BNP, Others) were polling 13% in total. So far in March, the Others are polling 12% with every poll putting the SNP at or slightly below 2005 levels. I realise that the SNP won (for want of a better word) the 2007 Parliament constituency election, the 2007 Parliament regional election and the 2009 European elections but those were all Scottish elections, this is a UK wide election (where I think the SNP will get 10 seats (+4) and no more besides). And I am not just saying that because I'm a Lib Dem!

[Harry Hayfield]

North England

[Harry Hayfield]

Northern Ireland



Democratic Unionists
Social Democratic and Labour Party
Sinn Fein
Ulster Conservatives and Unionists

[Harry Hayfield]

Well, Harry's showing Labour at a minimum of 104 seats outside Yorkshire & Humberside, the West Midlands and Wales. Which probably comes out to, what, 160-175 nationally?

The tallies are:
Conservatives 366 (+156) of which 29 are too close to call
Labour 183 (-166) of which 30 are too close to call
Liberal Democrats 63 (+1) of which 9 are too close to call
Scottish National Party 11 (+5) of which 2 are too close to call
Plaid Cymru 5 (+3) of which 1 is too close to call
Green 1 (+1) of which 1 is too close to call
Blaenau Gwent People's Voice 1 (Unchanged)
Kidderminster Hospital and Health Concern 1 (Unchanged)

That was based on the February average polls. On March 31st I will do a new set of calculations and reflect the revival in Labour that March has seen.

[Harry Hayfield]

Wales (my own patch)

[Harry Hayfield]

West Midlands

Yorkshire

[Harry Hayfield]

March Average Polls Forecasts

Blaenau Gwent People's Voice 1 (0 too close to call)
Conservatives 327 (28 too close to call)
Kidderminister Health Concern 1 (0 too close to call)
Labour 241 (21 too close to call)
Liberal Democrats 49 (15 too close to call)
Plaid Cymru 5 (0 too close to call)
Scottish National Party 7 (0 too close to call)

(Maps to follow)