British General Election Constituency Predictions

[Harry Hayfield]

North East

Blaydon - Labour 13.7% over LibDem.
City of Durham - Labour 7.4% over LibDem.
Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland - Labour majority 18.5% over Conservative
Newcastle-upon-Tyne North - Labour majority 16.8%

If these are personal opinions as opposed to actual polling based estimates:

Blaydon - Labour hold.
City of Durham - Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour.
Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland - Conservative GAIN from Labour
Newcastle-upon-Tyne North - Labour hold

[Harry Hayfield]

I've got thirty-one seats for my Super Sixty contest so far:

Arfon
Brigg & Goole
Buckingham
Ceredigon
Cleethorpes
Clywd West
Crawley
Croydon Central
Dagenham and Rainham
Dover
Edinburgh North & Leith
Edinburgh South West
Finchley & Golders Green
Gillingham & Rainham
Guildford
Harlow
Hove
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath
Liverpool Wavertree
Ochil & South Perthshire
Poplar and Limehouse
Rochdale
Rugby
Sheffield Hallam
Solihull
Thurrock
Watford
Waveney
Westmoreland and Lonsdale
Witney
York Outer

Does anyone have any suggestions for it?

Glad to see that Ceredigion has made it onto your list. Might I suggest the addition of: Morley and Outwood, Stirling and Newport East and the deletion of Gillingham (due to it being too easy to guess)?

[Harry Hayfield]

Part 1: The North-West

44 - Labour
25 - Conservative
7 - Liberal Democrats

GAINS
Con GAINS: Carlisle, Morecambe, Lancaster, Blackpool North, South Ribble, Lancashire West, Rossendale, City of Chester, Ellesmere Port, Wirral South, Sefton Central, Bury North, Bolton North East, Bolton West
Liberal Democrat GAINS: Rochdale, Liverpool Wavertree

[Harry Hayfield]

Part 2: Wales (Part 1: The North-West)



Labour - 23 (-7)
Conservative - 8 (+5)
Plaid Cymru - 5 (+3)
Liberal Democrats - 3 (-1)
People's Voice - 1 (±0)

National seat totals after part two:
Labour - 325 (-24)
Conservative - 230 (+20)
Liberal Democrats - 63 (+1)
Plaid Cymru - 5 (+3)
People's Voice - 1 (±0)

Hung Parliament - Labour short by 1

These are approximate, since i'm using various sources for notional majorities. Also, changes to predictions may follow later.

London next.

I would more or less agree with the exceptions of Ceredigion (Lib Dem gains do have a habit of becoming strongholds), Ynys Môn (although that will depend on nominations) and Newport East (remember the Assembly)

[Harry Hayfield]

Lib Dems GAIN Derby North??? Surely that should be an easy Con GAIN