Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016

[Harry Hayfield]

There will be NO coverage on BBC Parliament (as there was in 2011) but there are other others. If you are in the UK and have a Sky+ box, Irish TV (Sky Channel 191) will be hosting two special programmes at 2.00pm and 7.00pm GMT (each lasting three hours) which are sandwiched by three special half hour programmes with some of the party leaders and reactions to the results. RTE will also be showing the results (and that will be streamed on their website rte.ie) and on the Sunday BBC One Northern Ireland (Sky Channel 953, Freeview Channel 1 in Northern Ireland) will be showing a special election of the Sunday Politics show live from Dublin.

[Harry Hayfield]

RTÉ have commissioned B&A to do an exit poll. Results will be published at 07.00 tomorrow morning. The exit poll has a good record on accuracy.

Blimely, that's a bit of an early start for the broadcasters isn't it?

[Harry Hayfield]

The exit poll that was published this morning has now been reshown on Irish TV and the full breakdown is as follows (with change on 2011)

Fine Gael 25% -11%
Fianna Fail 21% +3%
Independents 11% -1%
Sinn Fein 16% +6%
Labour 7% -13%
People Before Profit / Anti Austerity Alliance 5% +4% (on PBP 2011)
Social Democrats 4%
Renua 2%
Green Party 4% +2%
Others 3%

[Harry Hayfield]

Galway East has completed its first count - Independent Sean Canney and Fine Gaeler (and former PD) Ciaran Cannon, looking likely to fill 2 of the seats.

And in terms of percentages: Fine Gael 30%, Fianna Fail 27%, Independent 25%. Sinn Fein 6%, Green Party 2%

[Harry Hayfield]

Current vote share (and seat tally)

Fine Gael 25.1% winning 7 seats
Fianna Fail 24.9% winning 13 seats
Sinn Fein 13.3% winning 4 seats
Independents 12.6% winning 2 seats
Labour 6.9% winning 0 seats
Anti Austerity Alliance 4.2% winning 1 seat
Independent Alliance 3.8% winning 2 seats
Social Democrats 3.5% winning 3 seats
Green Party 2.9% winning 1 seat
Renua 2.2% winning 0 seats
Others 0.7% winning 0 seats

[Harry Hayfield]

Source: The Irish Times

Counts Complete: 8
Seats Filled: 54

Vote Share and Seats Won
Fine Gael 26% winning 14 seats
Fianna Fail 25% winning 19 seats
Independents 17% winning 6 seats
Sinn Fein 14% winning 6 seats
Labour 7% winning 1 seat
Anti Austerity Alliance 4% winning 2 seats
Social Democrats 3% winning 3 seats
Green Party 3% winning 1 seat
Other Parties 1% winning 0 seats

[Harry Hayfield]

(Source: Irish Times)
All 40 constituencies have declared their first count
23 constituency counts have been completed
109 seats have been filled

Tally of % share (change on 2011) and seats won so far
Fine Gael 26% (-10%) winning 34 seats
Fianna Fail 24% (+6%) winning 32 seats
Independents 18% (+6%) winning 16 seats
Sinn Fein 14% (+4%) winning 14 seats
Labour 7% (-13%) winning 4 seats
Anti Austerity Alliance 4% (+3%) winning 4 seats
Social Democrats 3% (no candidates at last election) winning 3 seats
Green Party 3% (+1%) winning 2 seats
Renua 2% (no candidates at last election) winning 0 seats

Swing from governing parties (FG + Lab) to main opposition (FF) of 14.5%

[Harry Hayfield]

FG-FF seat difference seems to be 34-32.  My best back-of-envelope guess looking at seats remaining is that FG-FF will end up 52-43 in terms of seats.  Given Ireland is the land of STV, is there any advantage from being the largest party in terms of getting the Taoiseach seat?  Is  FG-FF grand alliance destined to have a FG Taoiseach then ?

As there has never been a grand coalition before, no one knows, but I should point out the exit poll which said that 50% of voters expect an election before the end of the year (suggesting that a government will not be formed)

[Harry Hayfield]

And note how all of them are incumbents?

[Harry Hayfield]

(Source: Irish Times)
36 constituencies completed (with Dublin Bay North having a full recount)
Current Seat Tallies
Fine Gael 47
Fianna Fail 43
Sinn Fein 22
Independents 20
Labour 6
Anti Austerity Alliance 5
Social Democrats 3
Greens 2

Fine Gael + Labour = 53
Fianna Fail + Independents = 67
Fine Gael + Fianna Fail = 90

My thoughts, second general election by the summer / autumn

[Harry Hayfield]

So, we have:

FG: 50 (-26)
FF: 44 (+24)
SF: 23 (+9)
Lab: 7 (-30)
AAA-PBP: 6 (+1)
SD: 3 (new)
Green: 2 (+2)
Ind: 23 (+9)

At least the FF+FG total is down from 2011. Guess that's the only way to spin this positively.

So 158 members means 80 for a majority. Well, clearly Fine Gael are the largest party so they get first dibs at creating a majority. As Wikipedia describes them as liberal conservative and Christian democratic let's see what other parties are liberal and conservative and Christian. Well Renua are described as being conservative (but with no seats that's not going to go anywhere) and so they are stumped.

So let's see who Fianna Fail do, as an Irish Republican party, well there the clear match is Sinn Fein so let's add FF's 44 to Sinn Fein's 23 and we end up with 67 (still some 13 short) at which point they get stumped.

So the way I see there are three possible options. Option 1: Grand Coalition of FF and FG (94), Option 2: FF and the Independents (67) as a minority or Option 3: We do the whole thing again in September.