Wales 2007; results thread

[Harry Hayfield]

We have an EXIT POLL for Wales, Yeeeaaaahhh! (Details about to be announced)

[Harry Hayfield]

ICM Sample Size 1,000
Turnout Forecast: 58%

[Harry Hayfield]

Wales South East Divisors (following 8 constituency declarations)

Con regional vote / 2 (Monmouth + 1)
Lab regional vote / 7 (Caerphilly, Islwyn, Merthyr Tydfil, Newport East, Newport West, Torfaen + 1)
Lib Dem regional vote / 1 (No constituencies + 1)
Plaid regional vote / 1 (No constituencies +1)
Green regional vote / 1
BNP regional vote / 1
Communist regional vote / 1
English Democrat regional vote / 1
Independent regional vote / 1
Socialist Labour regional vote / 1
United Kingdom Independence Party regional vote / 1
Welsh Christian Party regional party / 1

My guess: Lib Dem win the first seat, Plaid win the second seat, Con win the third seat, Lib Dem win the fourth seat

[Harry Hayfield]

Wales North Declaration:

Con 50,266 / 2 = 25,133
Lab 51,831 / 6 = 8,639
LibDem 15,275 / 1 = 15,275
PC 50,558 / 4 = 12,640

Con 2, Lab 0, Lib Dem 1, PC 1

[Harry Hayfield]

Labour 314,836 (32.16% -7.84%) winning 24 seats (-5)
Plaid Cymru 219,382 (22.41% +1.25%) winning 7 seats (+1)
Conservatives 219,003 (22.37% +2.42%) winning 5 seats (+4)
Liberal Democrats 144,541 (14.77% +0.64%) winning 3 seats (n/c)
Independents 59,066 (6.03% +4.98%) winning 1 seat (n/c)
United Kingdom Independence Party 16,838 (1.72% -0.61%)
Ratepayers 2,561 (0.26% +0.26%)
English Democrats 1,867 (0.19% +0.19%)
Others 840 (0.09% -1.30%)
Labour lead over Plaid Cymru of 9.75%
Swing from Lab to Plaid: 4.54%

[Harry Hayfield]

English Democrats run in Wales? Why?

Their full title is "English Democrats, Letting Monmouthshire Decide" and their main campaign plank was that they would allow the counties of Monmouthshire and Newport a referendum asking them "Would you prefer to be governed by Cardiff or Westminster?" alluding to Monmouthshire's historical connections with England.

[Harry Hayfield]

Regional Vote Tally vs Constituency Vote Tally
Con: 21% vs 22%
Lab: 30% vs 32%
LDm: 12% vs 15%
PC: 22% vs 22%
Ind: 1% vs 6%
UKIP: 4% vs 2%
Eng Dem: 0.17% vs 0.19%

[Harry Hayfield]

If we are discussing alternative electoral methods, here's a couple to consider:

Closed Lists (a la Euros): Lab 19 PC 14 Con 14 Lib Dem 7 BNP 2 Green 2 UKIP 2
50% Majority Elected Method: (Impossible to calculate)
STV: (Impossible to calculate)

[Harry Hayfield]

Constituency
Conservatives 219,003 (22.37%) winning 5 seats (+4)
Labour 314,836 (32.16%) winning 24 seats (-5)
Liberal Democrats 144,541 (14.77%) winning 3 seats (n/c)
Plaid 219,382 (22.41%) winning 7 seats (+1)
Ind 59,066 (6.03%) winning 1 seat (n/c)
UKIP 16,838 (1.72%)
English Democrats 1,867 (0.19%)
Ratepayers 2,561 (0.26%)
Others 840 (0.09%)

Regional
British National Party 42,197 (4.33%)
Conservatives 207,013 (21.25%) winning 7 seats (-4)
Christian People's Alliance 2,694 (0.28%)
Communists 3,708 (0.38%)
English Democrats 1,655 (0.17%)
Greens 33,803 (3.47%)
Ind 7,056 (0.72%)
Labour 288,954 (29.66%) winning 2 seats (+2)
Liberal Democrats 113,897 (11.69%) winning 3 seats (n/c)
Plaid 210,120 (21.57%) winning 8 seats (+2)
Respect 1,792 (0.18%)
Socialist Alternative 838 (0.09%)
Socialist Equality 292 (0.03%)
Socialist Labour 12,209 (1.25%)
UKIP 38,490 (3.95%)
Veritas 502 (0.05%)
Welsh Christian Party 8,963 (0.92%)

[Harry Hayfield]

Well, I spoke to an Assembly Staff member this afternoon (asking when the Assembly will next sit) and he said "Don't bank on anything soon!"

I have the dreadful feeling in my waters that it's going to be October 1974 all over again (but just in Wales)

[Harry Hayfield]

On the subject of PR, could someone do the following maths:

An 80 member assembly elected by STV
Each parliamentary constituency elects 2 members.
Each party is allowed to nominate two candidates per constituency (one of which must be a woman)

[Harry Hayfield]

As members know I'm a Lib Dem member in the Ceredigion constituency and today we held our first meeting since the election. We spent 90 minutes talking about the election result in Ceredigion and the rest of Wales and because of the fact that my grandfather has to transport me back to where I live I had to leave before the meeting moved on to the subject of next year's local elections. But before I did leave I did make the following observation:

Westminster 1997: 46 Lib Dems elected
Ashdown "Constructive Opposition"
Westminster 2001: 52 Lib Dems elected
Westminster 2005: 62 Lib Dems elected
Ergo, Constructive Opposition in the Assembly

It seemed to be supported by the majority of the party in Ceredigion, but I wonder how many ordinary members have been able to attend these high level meetings.

[Harry Hayfield]

I can give you Ceredigion's constituency and regional list votes and Carmarthen East's and Llanelli's tomorrow (as I am going to Carmarthenshire County Council) but all the rest will involve phone calls to the other 20 councils!

Ceredigion Constituency 2007: Plaid 14,818 Lib Dem 10,863 Con 2,369 Lab 1,530 Ind 528

Ceredigion Regional 2007: Plaid 12,488 Lib Dem 7,769 Con 3,753 Lab 2,348 Green 1,394 UKIP 663 BNP 550 SLP 210 WCP 206 Ind 202 Ind 128 CPB 93 Veritas 79 CPA 58

[Harry Hayfield]

Four Plaid AM's have issued a statement opposing a deal with the Tories. They are:

Leanne Wood, Helen Mary Jones, Bethan Jenkins and Nerys Evans.

First three names are no surprise, but who the hell is Nerys Evans? (a list AM apparently).

Not sure quite what this means...

She's the replacement for Helen Mary in Mid and West Wales.

[Harry Hayfield]

Don't count your chickens, guys! BBC Wales news has pictures of Lib Dem members (like myself) outside the meeting where the Lib Dem National Executive is being held with the following placards:

"Over the Rainbow? Over my dead Body!"

I think we'd better start warming up the "October 1974" election maps!

[Harry Hayfield]

BREAKING NEWS

Liberal Democrat National Executive REJECT Con / Plaid / Lib Dem rainbow coalition

[Harry Hayfield]

Interesting

How likely is the party to adopt Alex Carlile's suggestion?

Which was?

[Harry Hayfield]

Carmarthenshire's data for 2007 should be here tomorrow, Saturday or Tuesday

[Harry Hayfield]

Here we are Mid and West Wales (constituency and regional)

Constituency (% shares):
Brecon and Radnorshire: Con 34% Lab 9% Lib Dem 52% Plaid 5%
Carmarthen East: Con 16% Lab 25% Lib Dem 6% Plaid 53%
Carmarthen West: Con 30% Lab 30% Lib Dem 6% Plaid 29% Ind 5%
Ceredigion: Con 8% Lab 5% Lib Dem 36% Plaid 49% Ind 2%
Dwyfor: Con 20% Lab 12% Lib Dem 8% Plaid 60%
Llanelli: Con 10% Lab 36% Lib Dem 4% Plaid 50%
Montgomeryshire: Con 30% Lab 7% Lib Dem 39% Plaid 14% UKIP 10%
Preseli: Con 39% Lab 27% Lib Dem 9% Plaid 25%

Regional (% shares):
Brecon and Radnorshire: Con 33% Lab 13% Lib Dem 32% Plaid 8% Ind 1% UKIP 5% Others 9%
Carmarthen East: Con 15% Lab 21% Lib Dem 4% Plaid 44% Ind 3% UKIP 3% Others 9%
Carmarthen West: Con 29% Lab 25% Lib Dem 6% Plaid 26% Ind 1% UKIP 4% Others 9%
Ceredigion: Con 13% Lab 8% Lib Dem 26% Plaid 42% Ind 1% UKIP 2% Others 9%
Dwyfor: Con 19% Lab 13% Lib Dem 5% Plaid 50% Ind 1% UKIP 3% Others 9%
Llanelli: Con 10% Lab 32% Lib Dem 4% Plaid 40% Ind 1% UKIP 3% Others 10%
Montgomeryshire: Con 32% Lab 8% Lib Dem 23% Plaid 16% Ind 1% UKIP 8% Others 12%
Preseli: Con 34% Lab 24% Lib Dem 7% Plaid 22% Ind 1% UKIP 4% Others 8%

[Harry Hayfield]

In a nutshell as I understand it, because Nick Bourne (Con 12) is convinced that a rainbow coalition (Con 12 + Plaid 15 + Lib Dem 6 = 33) it sounds as though Mike German wants to be part of a government at all costs. However, what he needs to remember is that the Lib Dems lead (as opposed to control) 4 councils in Wales all of which are considered Labour areas in Westminster terms.

[Harry Hayfield]

BREAKING NEWS

Welsh Liberal Democrats have agreed to revive plans for a coalition assembly government with Plaid Cymru and the Welsh Conservatives. A special conference voted by 125 to 77 in favour of resuming talks with other parties.

[Harry Hayfield]

I have just posted the following on Betsan's Welsh Politics Blog:

"I did not vote for a Plaid / Con / Lib Dem coalition, therefore why not have the election again, this time with only the top two candidates eligible for nomination"

Could someone therefore make a guess of what would happen if that applied to the constituencies?

[Harry Hayfield]

I've managed to get the regional votes by constituency and noted this about the Lib Dem regional list vote:

Delyn   46.65%
Montgomeryshire   58.72%
Brecon and Radnorshire   60.07%
Pontypridd   61.79%
Dwyfor, Meirionnydd   63.02%
Rhondda   66.90%
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr   71.00%
Preseli, Pembrokeshire   71.46%
Ceredigion   71.52%
Cardiff Central   72.25%
Vale of Clwyd   73.93%
Arfon   74.02%
Cardiff West   74.76%
Aberconwy   77.01%
Monmouth   77.01%
Neath   77.54%
Ynys Môn   79.28%
Cardiff South and Penarth   80.11%
Vale of Glamorgan   81.85%
Newport East   82.01%
Swansea West   83.59%
Ogmore   85.40%
Gower   89.67%
Newport West   89.80%
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire   90.70%
Llanelli   91.34%
Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney   92.21%
Clwyd South   92.60%
Caerphilly   94.90%
Clwyd West   96.54%
Torfaen   96.84%
Swansea East   97.22%
Cardiff North   100.44%
Bridgend   100.64%
Alyn and Deeside   107.03%
Wrexham   107.34%
Aberavon   122.41%
Cynon Valley   123.20%
Islwyn   130.57%
Blaenau Gwent   143.08%

The % figure refers to the retained vote compared with the constituency (and explains why we can't win a regional list seat in Mid and West Wales)

[Harry Hayfield]

And now for the parties with seats:

And there in a nutshell is why it is impossible for us to win a regional list seat in Mid and West Wales. I mean, just look at the lack of Lib Dem regional votes outside Montgomeryshire, Brecon and Radnorshire and Ceredigion.

[Harry Hayfield]

This map probably represents the geographical pattern of what could be thought of as active opposition to Cardiff Bay. There's quite a lot of it, isn't there? Something that should worry the political/cultural/media establishment but which doesn't seem to have done...

Not really, that's about the same map as we had at the referendum in 1997. Western Wales strongly in favour, Eastern Wales opposed, South Wales Valleys in favour, Outside Valleys opposed.